Talladega Aaron’s 499 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Matt Kenseth – Matt Kenseth is currently the best driver on restrictor plate tracks. Last season on this track type he had two wins and finished in the top five every race. At Talladega last season he was very impressive. In the spring race he led the most laps (73) and finished 3rd. In the fall he led 33 laps and took home the trophy. Even though Matt Kenseth is no longer with the Roush Fenway Racing it appears that he hasn’t missed a beat. In this season’s Daytona 500 Kenseth may of very well been the driver to beat. He led the most laps (86) but his engine expired with a quarter of the race remaining. Look for Kenseth to be a popular fantasy pick from many fantasy NASCAR experts. My only concern about him is his Toyota engine because the manufacturer lost quite a few of them in the Daytona 500. My prediction is Kenseth will win the Aaron’s 499. (Yahoo! A Driver)
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Clint Bowyer – Clint Bowyer is a safe fantasy pick for the Aaron’s 499. Since 2010 he has two wins and is the only driver in the series who has a single digit average finish (6.7). Last fall at Talladega Bowyer had a very good car so don’t be fooled by his 23rd place finish. When Jamie McMurray brought out a late caution that caused a Green-White-Checker Bowyer was the leader. Then during the restart Kenseth drove down on him which caused him to get out of line and lose track position. Then shortly after that Stewart blocked Waltrip and the “Big One” ensued and Bowyer wasn’t unscathed. Prior to that race he had five consecutive top seven finishes. When you take away Bowyer’s first three Talladega starts than he’s only finished worse than 12th twice in his career at this wild card track. In the Daytona 500 he finished 11th.
Brad Keselowski – Brad Keselowski is the defending champion of the spring Talladega race. In this race a year ago he accomplished what many people thought was impossible and that was leading on the final lap and holding off the second place car. In the 2012 fall race he avoided the carnage of the “big one” and finished 7th. In the Aaron’s 499 I like Keselowski’s fantasy value. He has a knack at Talladega and is a two time winner. Brad’s raced here eight times and has six top tens. In this season’s Daytona 500 Keselowski finished 4th with a damaged car. (Yahoo! A Driver)
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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > Not So Fast
April 28, 2013 @ 12:57 pm
Hey RR … tough, crazy week @ RIR ! ETA for when yo will open Forum thread for the ‘Dega 1 ?? Thx
April 28, 2013 @ 1:11 pm
Check out this post on how to create a new post on the forum —> https://noconspiracyhere6.wpcomstaging.com/2012/08/28/ifantasyrace-coms-new-members-qa-forum/
It’s really easy.
May 2, 2013 @ 11:13 am
Thx RR … just got on and can’t seem to locate your Q & A Forum … or maybe just missing something. Appreciate your analysis earlier this week on difference in speeds on plate tracks vs. others.
Q: With all the approaches in how to roster/start drivers – I realize little or nothing can be predicted for these races. Some say never waste any studs in these 4 weeks – yet I think studs have somehow come-out taking checkered last couple years.
In any event, it would seem if you go with teams having longest pattern of highest complete laps avg over the past years – perhaps they have a better knack for staying out of trouble. Further, when you just cursory match that against ” avg laps running in top 10 ” – the consistent top 5’s finishers seem to hang back a bit – which seems to go against the hunch that running top 10 is safest ???
– just ol’ cops 0.02 cents, Thx
2012 – Season and Overall Trophy @ 10,.120 x 2
2013 – :-/ 2.360 head to T’dega
May 2, 2013 @ 12:43 pm
You just need to hover your mouse over advantage features on the top menu and you’ll find it.
I think in terms of avoiding studs the only ones I would stay a mile away from are Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch. That’s because their fantasy value is to high at other venues. I think all of the other drivers should be on the table. There’s plenty of good drivers across the tiers IMO. Because of the wild card nature of the race I think people just feel better when they use mediocre drivers (in tiers) and they crash.
In terms of avoiding people in your third paragraph the drivers who I would avoid are those with negative momentum who have been wrecking a lot lately. I really don’t know if there is a best way for picking drivers based on their driving style here (front runners or those who hang in the bang). I do prefer front runners though but there’s always a last caution which regroups the pack which essentially makes the first 450 miles meaningless.