Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Loudon – Camping World RV Sales 301

11. Denny Hamlin – Starts 7th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

I never thought I would have Denny Hamlin ranked this low going into Sunday’s Camping World RV Sales 301, but I guess there’s a first for everything. Driver talent can only go so far at a track like Loudon, and the #11 Toyota (as well as all three JGR cars) just seem a little off to me this weekend. That being said, New Hampshire Motor Speedway is pretty much Denny Hamlin’s playground. In fourteen career starts here, he owns seven top 5 finishes, six of which are 3rd or better (including two victories). In the two races here last season, Hamlin was absolutely dominant, leading 343 of the 601 total laps while finishing 2nd in the spring and getting the victory (from 32nd starting place) in the fall. The #11 will roll off the grid in 7th on Sunday and I fully expect Hamlin to be inside the top 10 all race long. However, when you pair the fact that he wasn’t great on the speed charts on Saturday with the fact that Darian Grubb isn’t a very good crew chief, especially when track conditions change drastically overnight, I’m not getting my hopes up. This 11th-place ranking is basically a “worst case scenario” for Hamlin on Sunday. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him finish inside the top 5, but I think a top 10 is more likely.

12. Brian Vickers – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Vickers showed me enough speed in Happy Hour to be worthy of a solid top 10 ranking this weekend, but the inconsistency of the #55 team has me a bit worried. That being said, whenever Brian hops into this Toyota on a short track, good results tend to happen more often than not. As an example, he ended up 11th at Martinsville back in April after starting 3rd. He won’t start quite that high at Loudon on Sunday, but a 13th-place qualifying effort isn’t that bad. Vickers ran both races here last season in the #55 car and ended up 15th in the spring and 9th in the fall. His best finish here thus far has been 5th, accomplished in 2006 while with Hendrick Motorsports and in 2011 while with Red Bull Racing. As I said before, this car was real fast in Happy Hour on Saturday (fastest lap and best ten-lap average) but my main concern with this team has always been their ability to adjust on the race car, and track conditions for the race are going to be a whole lot hotter than they were on Saturday.

13. Matt Kenseth – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Loudon is one of those tracks that Kenseth should improve at because of his move to Joe Gibbs Racing. He posted real quick laps in both practice sessions on Saturday (top 5 in each), but what worries me the most is that his ten-lap average wasn’t that great in Happy Hour (16th out of 21 cars). Also, the three JGR cars seem a little off to me as well–as I’ve stated before–although they could all go either way on Sunday. The reason I have Kenseth ranked 13th is because I have more confidence in the twelve drivers ranked in front of him, not necessarily that I think he will finish 13th. I have full confidence that Matt can end up with a solid top 10 on Sunday, and he probably will–unless, of course, this team runs into trouble along the way. As far as Kenseth’s history at New Hampshire, he’s posted 12 top 10s in 26 career starts with the most recent coming in the fall event in 2011 (6th). The thing is, Roush generally seems to be a step behind when the series stops at this track, so those stats can be misleading. I’m not 100% confident in picking the #20 this weekend, but then again I wasn’t at Kentucky either and he went on to win the race.

14. Ryan Newman – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

It’s a flat track and it’s Ryan Newman, and those are the venues where his name pops up the most. He’s a three-time winner here at Loudon and owns the 6th-best average finish (12.7) among active drivers. While all of that is great, the thing that I dislike the most about The Rocketman is that he’s rarely fast all weekend, but rather shows up at the end of the race and gets the finish. While that is great for fantasy racers, it makes it hard to predict a race for this guy. Newman was near the bottom of the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour and posted mid-20s fast lap times in both practice sessions on Saturday, but he qualified 15th and you have to give him a little advantage at New Hampshire because of his history here. He has six top 10s in the last seven races at the Magic Mile and while it wouldn’t surprise me to see him grab another on Sunday, going into the Camping World RV Sales 301 I see the #39 Chevrolet as a top 15 car only.

15. Jeff Burton – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

There are only a few race weekends per season that I even mention Jeff Burton’s name, and it just so happens that there are two in a row. One word to describe this old timer at New Hampshire Motor Speedway is “consistent”. In the nine events here since 2009, Burton has finished 16th or better in all but one of them, although he has never ended up better than 12th. Like I said, consistent. Jeff gets somewhat of a nod from me this weekend because he qualified inside the top 10 and wasn’t terrible in practice, either (15th-fastest in Happy Hour). He also ended up 10th at Phoenix back in March and 18th at Martinsville earlier this year. A solid top 15 should be expected out of the #31 team on Sunday but not much more. Still, in some leagues where you have to use every driver, this could be the week to check Jeff Burton off of your list.

A Few Words About Other Drivers:

Carl Edwards is a huge question mark for me this weekend. He starts 6th but this team refuses to make any long runs in practice and the driver himself said the car was bad. Also, Roush tends to struggle here at Loudon (in the spring race at least). It’s hard to overlook the track position with the #99 this weekend but I think there’s a better chance that they finish outside of the top 15 than the probability of Carl getting a top 10. I expected a lot more out of A.J. Allmendinger and the #51 team this weekend. I think he could run in the upper 20s but not much better. This is the second-last race for this team so maybe they’re already slacking off? Juan Montoya was my sleeper pick coming into this race weekend and remains in that position after qualifying 10th on Friday. It’s a very risky pick but I love the Hendrick motors here at New Hampshire and JPM has had a couple good runs here (3rd in 2009, 9th in 2011). Aric Almirola had nothing good to say about his Ford in Happy Hour so I’m going to go ahead and say avoid the #43. Joey Logano was on my radar earlier on in the week, but after he qualified 25th and wasn’t very strong in practice on Saturday, that ship has sailed. He could sneak up into the teens but probably won’t be better than that. Marcos Ambrose knows how to conserve his brakes and was decent in Happy Hour (12th-best ten-lap average). He could end up in the teens when it’s all said and done but I don’t see Marcos repeating his 9th-place effort here in 2011. Finally, Martin Truex, Jr. was real quick on Saturday (along with the entire MWR stable), posting the best ten-lap average in 2nd Practice and the 7th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. He starts 19th on Sunday but might be able to challenge for a top 10 when the checkered flag waves on Sunday–something he has only one of in his last eight starts here at New Hampshire.