Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Loudon 2 – Sylvania 300 (2013 Chase Race #2)
Newman Back in Form at Loudon
Right now there’s an 80% chance of rain in Loudon, New Hampshire on Sunday, so we might have a situation similar to what we did last weekend at Chicago. How important will practice speeds be if the race gets delayed or postponed until Monday? If it gets bumped up to an 11 am or noon start on Monday, race conditions will be a little closer to what they were during the practices on Saturday. If we race later in the day on Sunday, the track will be hotter than expected to start and cooler than expected in the end. Oh the joys of unexpected variables in a race weekend! Ryan Newman won the pole for this year’s Sylvania 300 and he, alongside Kasey Kahne, will lead the field to the green when we race. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. There were three practice sessions held this weekend but you should only be concerned with the final two, held on Saturday. Those results can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also, don’t forget to read Ryan’s notes on each session–especially if you weren’t able to watch them (like me). Those can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Sylvania 300:
*Chase drivers marked in red*
11. Joey Logano – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Boy has this team come crashing down to earth. For those of you that jumped off the bandwagon before Richmond, high five to you. For those that are like me and are still clinging on to a little bit of hope, we’re in this together I guess. To be fair, you can’t predict engine failures, and Logano had a very good race car last week at Chicago. Also, he looks to have a pretty solid one here at Loudon this weekend as well, and the 6th-place starting spot doesn’t hurt one bit. The #22 Ford was 7th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour while posting the 8th-best lap, and in Practice #2 Logano wound up 13th-quick. Overall, this track has been kind to Joey, though, and all of the Chase drivers get a slight bump in the rankings this time of year. In ten career starts at Loudon, Logano has an average finish of just 17.8, but that’s brought down by three or four really bad runs. He has finished 14th or better in four of the last five events here, and that includes his 8th-place finish in this event last season. Logano even has one victory here at New Hampshire, although it should be noted that that was due to the fact that the race was rain shortened. I think this team has a shot at a solid top 10 finish come Sunday but I can understand if there’s some concern among fantasy owners. Due to his recent bad runs, I consider Logano a “Medium Risk” driver this weekend.
12. Kevin Harvick – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This is the last time that Kevin Harvick will have an opportunity to bring another championship to Richard Childress Racing and he got off on the right foot last week with a solid 3rd-place finish at Chicago. New Hampshire Motor Speedway hasn’t been quite as kind to “Happy” as Chicagoland has been, but his record here still isn’t terrible. In 25 career starts at Loudon, Harvick has averaged a finish of 13.4 while collecting one win (in 2008) and 13 top 10 finishes. He ended up 7th here back in July and I think this #29 team has a pretty good shot at replicating that result come Sunday. Harvick will start the Sylvania 300 from 8th-place on Sunday and in Happy Hour they ran the most laps of any team. This is generally a sign that they have a very good race car for the race, although the lack of speed is somewhat concerning to me. Harvick is usually better here in the spring than in the fall but he has six finishes of 12th or better in the last seven Loudon races and should make it seven in the last eight come Sunday.
13. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 5th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Doesn’t it always seem like when a driver is in the middle of a controversy they respond in one way and one way only: with a solid run in the next race. Well, Truex disappointed on that front last weekend in Chicago, but he has a chance for redemption in Loudon on Sunday. It was announced this week that NAPA will be leaving Michael Waltrip Racing because of what happened at Richmond, and from what I read it sounded like unless they can find some more sponsorship, Waltrip could be giving Truex his walking papers. Ouch. Martin has been pretty solid here at Loudon as of late, having not finished worse than 17th here since 2010. He qualified 5th on Friday and looked somewhat sporty in practice on Saturday as well, especially in that second session. In Happy Hour, Truex had the 11th-best ten-lap average. He always tends to qualify better than he races here at New Hampshire, so I wouldn’t expect a very surprising run out of the #56 on Sunday, but a top 15 isn’t out of the question by any means–in fact, it’s almost expected.
14. Denny Hamlin – Starts 14th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Thirteen. Denny Hamlin is on a 13-race streak of Cup starts without a top 15 finish. He’s on a 15-race streak of races without a top 5 finish. It’s been almost four months since the #11 has even came remotely close to being near the lead at the end of a race. The good news for Hamlin fans is that New Hampshire is an excellent race track for him and if those streaks are going to end before next season, this is going to be the place where it’s going to happen. It also doesn’t hurt that the #11 Toyota looked really sporty on Saturday. Hamlin was 11th-quick in Practice #2 while running the 3rd-best ten-lap average before posting the 4th-best lap and 5th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. However, fantasy owners don’t get the points based on where a driver should finish. Looking solely at practice speeds, Hamlin should have a shot for a top 5 finish on Sunday. With the way his season has went, though, this team is more likely than not going to run into problems during the Sylvania 300. It also doesn’t help that Darian Grubb is (in my opinion) an inadequate crew chief and could take Denny out of the equation at any given time. Still, Hamlin has ended up 3rd or better in five of the last eight Cup races at Loudon and owns a series-best 8.8 average finish over fifteen career starts. There’s a lot of risk in taking the #11 this weekend, but you know what they say: high risk, high reward. I’m very cautiously optimistic that Hamlin will get at least a top 10 on Sunday. Remember, this race last season was the one that he dominated and won despite starting 32nd.
15. Greg Biffle – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Biffle gets this ranking somewhat by default. This team isn’t running up to their potential right now (and really haven’t been all season) but Greg is a consistent race car driver at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and he starts 10th. The #16 Ford’s long run speed was lacking a little bit during the Saturday practice sessions this weekend but Biffle was able to posted some fast laps around 10th in each. He wound up 15th here back in July and hasn’t finished worse than 18th at Loudon since the 2008 season. I really don’t see that changing on Sunday but I’m not really expecting a great run out Biffle, either. If the #16 cracks the top 10 at any point past lap 250, I’ll be surprised. It’s worth noting, however, that this team hasn’t finished worse than 16th since the Indianapolis race in July.
A Few Words About Other Drivers:
The flat tracks is where Juan Montoya really excels. This team is still putting out fast race cars pretty much every week and Montoya wasn’t terrible on the speed charts Saturday. He qualified 15th and did finish 9th here two years ago, but it’s definitely risky taking the #42 considering that that 9th has been JPM’s only top 10 at Loudon since 2009. Brian Vickers won here in July but is still focused on the Nationwide program, and considering they are in Kentucky this weekend, wasn’t fully committed to the Cup car at all. Because he didn’t qualify on Friday, Vickers will have to start the Sylvania 300 from the back. That’s not a death blow by any means, but this is a short race and passing isn’t easy. I think he can work his way up into the top 20 on Sunday but I’m not expecting much more. David Ragan has really found some speed as of late and will start this year’s fall race at Loudon from 19th. That’s where he finished here back in July, so if you need a deep pick in some leagues he’s your guy. I know I will be starting him in Yahoo! this week. Paul Menard is an intriguing option this week considering he qualified 7th on Friday. If that team would have shown some good long run speed in practice on Saturday, Menard might have cracked my top 15 this week. He’s on a four-race streak of top 20s at Loudon and should make it five straight on Sunday. Carl Edwards qualified mid-pack this week and never made any long runs in practice. Honestly, he’s not on my radar whatsoever this week, and the last two times that happened he won (Phoenix and Richmond). He ended up 8th here back in July and in this race two years ago. I’d be surprised if he finished top 10 on Sunday, though. Jeff Burton ran 3rd here in July but on Friday he qualified 24th so it’s going to take a lot just for him to crack the top 10 on Sunday. He has finished 16th or better in seven of the last eight Loudon races, though, so a top 15 isn’t out of the question for this team. Finally, another guy who had a great run here last July (5th) was Aric Almirola, and he’ll start the Sylvania 300 in 13th. The #43 didn’t show much speed in practice, though, especially on long runs, so I don’t see Almirola coming anywhere close to a repeat performance this weekend. In his four other Loudon starts his best finish has been 18th.
