Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Texas 2 – AAA Texas 500 (2013 Chase Race #8)
Keselowski: The Chase Spoiler
We’re in “The Lone Star State” this weekend for the AAA Texas 500. In case you forgot, the Sprint Cup Series stopped here at Texas Motor Speedway back in April and it was Kyle Busch who dominated from the pole, leading 171 of the 334 laps en route to his first career victory at this track. Starting position usually doesn’t mean much on the intermediate tracks but it should be known that each of the last two Texas races have been won from the pole and each of the last five winners here have started inside the top 5. Carl Edwards will lead the field to the green on Sunday afternoon with 2012 champ Brad Keselowski alongside. The full starting lineup for the AAA Texas 500 can be found by clicking here. We had a “normal” practice schedule this weekend with two “race practices” being held on Saturday morning and afternoon. The speeds from those sessions can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also, don’t forget to check out Ryan’s extensive notes on each practice–something no other side offers. Those can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The AAA Texas 500:
*Chase drivers marked in red*
1. Brad Keselowski – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The Blue Deuce has been real strong on these tri-oval intermediate tracks in 2013 but hasn’t always gotten the finishes–which are the only things that really matter in fantasy. Thankfully–for BK fantasy owners anyway–the last time we were at this type of track (Charlotte) Keselowski wound up in victory lane. He also led 52 laps at Kansas, despite finishing 17th, and the #2 Ford was 7th at Chicago. One tell-tale sign of how strong the Penske Fords are on a particular race weekend, at least this season, is how they qualify, and Keselowski would have won the pole on Friday if it wasn’t for Carl Edwards’ late run. Back here in April, Brad ran 9th, and that followed up his 2nd-place run in this event one year ago–one he probably should have won. There’s always concern about guys like Keselowski putting in experimental packages in the final month of Sprint Cup action, but there’s really no way to know that for sure (unless, of course, someone on the team says so). This Blue Deuce team has a shot at another solid run this Sunday if they have a “normal” motor in the car. Keselowski was quickest in Happy Hour and 3rd-fastest in 2nd Practice. Even better, the Blue Deuce and the #20 Toyota were the only cars able to break the 185-mph mark in ten-lap average during that final practice session. Going into the race I think Keselowski has a real good shot at challenging for the win, we’ll just have to see if the team can keep it together for the full 500 miles. This team has two top 5s in the last three weeks and will look to make it three in the last four on Sunday.
2. Matt Kenseth – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
He’s probably going to be the most popular fantasy pick from here on out, so I’ll keep it short as to why I have Kenseth ranked 2nd this weekend. There’s still a bit of a conservative mindset in the #20 camp, in my opinion, because they don’t want to screw this championship run up. Really the only way I see Kenseth winning another race this year is if he has an absolutely dominant race car, and while his Toyota is wicked fast this weekend, I wouldn’t consider it dominant. Kenseth was fastest in Happy Hour along with Keselowski and both of them had great ten-lap averages, although the former was just a tick faster. Statistically this is Matt’s 2nd-best track on the circuit, and his 8.5 average finish at Texas Motor Speedway is the best among active drivers. He’ll start Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 from 6th, probably lead a handful of laps, if not most, and contend for the win. Basically, for the sake of being different, I’m picking Keselowski. There’s no reason to go against Kenseth on Sunday and you will regret it if you decide to. This team has been a top 5 machine on this track type in 2013 and will add another this weekend. When this team is working on “fine tuning” in Happy Hour, watch out.
3. Kyle Busch – Starts 5th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Rowdy’s success here at Texas Motor Speedway tends to come in spurts, and it looks as though he’s in the midst of a good run here as of late so I have no problem taking him. In the last two races at this track, Kyle has finished 3rd and 1st, leading 251 total laps between those two events. Ironically, he’s also started 3rd and 1st in those two races, so if that holds true I guess we should expect a 5th-place run out of Busch on Sunday. The #18 was sneaky fast on Saturday, as most people were focusing on Kenseth, Johnson, and Keselowski. Kyle Busch, however, was 2nd-fastest in Practice #2 and ranked 4th on the speed chart in Happy Hour. Even better, he was 6th-best in ten-lap average during that final session. On the intermediate tri-ovals as of late, the #18 has been real solid, posting top 5 finishes in four of the last five. The lone exception? Kansas last month, where Rowdy ended up 34th–although that terrible run was somewhat expected. The #18 really bit fantasy owners last weekend in Martinsville but this is still the same team that has posted top 5s in five of the last seven Sprint Cup races. Sometimes it’s advantageous to have a short memory, and that is the case with Kyle Busch this weekend at Texas.
4. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
The #48 team had some minor problems during the final practice session this weekend, first with a tire rub to start out and then a broken foot board later. At least these things happened in practice and not during the race. There wasn’t any major damage to report except for the fact that Johnson ranked 16th on the speed chart in Happy Hour. The probable cause of that, however, is the tire rub. Most drivers posted their fastest time on lap #1 during that session and if the #48 had a tire rub, chances are JJ wasn’t going full speed early in the session. “Five Time” ranked 3rd in ten-lap average during that practice, though, and there’s no reason to think he won’t challenge for at least a top 5 come Sunday evening. This team has been disappointing a little bit during the races here as of late, though, which is why I have Jimmie ranked 4th going into the AAA Texas 500. As we’ve seen all season long, however, this team can turn it up pretty much on a flip of a switch, so he could very well go out and dominate this race. Johnson is a two-time winner at Texas Motor Speedway and the defending victor of this event. Six of the last twelve Texas races have ended up him either in P1 or P2, and on the intermediate tri-oval tracks lately this team has been nothing short of amazing (click here to view the chart). It’s going to be fun watching what unfolds these last three races, especially with Kenseth and Johnson having such strong race cars week in and week out.
5. Jeff Gordon – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Well, this team finally broke through with a win at Martinsville last weekend and remain within striking distance of the point leaders. Although I highly doubt both Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth run into major problems over these next three weeks, it’s always good in fantasy racing to go with a team that is racing for something. So, if you want an “off-sequence” pick (or need one in allocation leagues) Jeff Gordon is your guy. Only the #48 team has scored more Sprint Cup points over the last five races than the #24 team, and the latter has now finished 8th or better in eight of the last ten Sprint Cup races, and Gordon hasn’t ended up worse than that in any of the last five events on intermediate tri-oval tracks. That kind of consistency is incredibly difficult, especially in a sport like NASCAR with so many unknown variables that could arise. At Texas specifically, Gordon has two top 10 finishes in the last four events, but in the race here back in April he had a lot better car (arguably the best, according to Ryan) than his 38th-place finish shows (front suspension problems). In terms of practice on Saturday, the #24 Chevrolet struggled in Practice #2 (like teammate Dale Earnhardt, Jr.) but found speed in Happy Hour, posting the 7th-best lap and ranking 7th in ten-lap average as well. Gordon qualified 8th for this week’s race and should be at least in the top 10 all night long on Sunday.
6. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Martin Truex has done nothing but sing praises for his #56 Toyota this weekend, which you can take one of two ways: either the car is really good, or he’s just saying that because he finally has a ride set in place for 2014. Either way, I’m expecting a good run out of this team on Sunday. You should all know by now that I value Truex as one of the top intermediate track racers in the series, and when he has a fast car to go along with that, even better. Martin paced Practice #1 on Friday but then missed it just a little bit in qualifying, ending up 15th. Still, the #56 ranked P4 in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and ended up 5th in Happy Hour. Truex was 1st and 4th in ten-lap average during those sessions, respectively. This team has struggled a bit on the intermediate tri-ovals as of late (18th at Chicago, 19th at Kansas, 22nd at Charlotte) but before that string of bad runs they never ended up worse than 9th on this track type in 2013. Specifically at Texas, Truex finished runner-up to Kyle Busch here in April and has ended up 13th or better in each of the last four events at this track. He should be able to easily make that five in a row on Sunday in the AAA Texas 500.
7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 7th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The #88 team is running chassis no. 88-716 this weekend, which was also ran at both Michigan races this season. In each of those, Junior ended up finishing in the mid-30s, but that’s not an accurate representation of how strong he was at all. Earnhardt led a handful of laps in each race but had mechanical problems that ruined his day. Seeing as we’re now into November, temperatures should be cooler and I’d say it’s less likely that we see blown engines here on Sunday, even though we are at Texas. Also, mechanical issues can’t be predicted, so there’s really no reason to even think about that, in my opinion. Moving on, the #88 team has been solid on the tri-oval intermediates this season, especially when starting up front. On Friday, Junior qualified 7th for Sunday’s AAA Texas 500. Most recently on this track type, the #88 has finished 8th at both Kansas and Atlanta, and here at Texas one year ago he ended up 7th. Earnhardt ended up 6th-quickest in Happy Hour on Saturday and had the 9th-best ten-lap average. The team struggled a bit in 2nd Practice but I’m not overly concerned with that because those track conditions aren’t really what we’re going to see Saturday. If nothing else, the #88 Chevrolet probably has the best paint scheme of the weekend, and that alone should guarantee a top 10 finish for this team (joking).
8. Carl Edwards – Starts 1st – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Cousin Carl is a three-time winner at Texas Motor Speedway and will bring the field to the green for this year’s running of the AAA Texas 500. As noted before, each of the last two winners at this track have started from P1, and although that doesn’t guarantee anything, it is a good sign for 99 fantasy owners. If you’ve been paying attention to me this season, you should know by now that Edwards is borderline impossible to read in practice, and I’ve basically stopped even trying. This car has speed, that’s no doubt. The #99 was 8th-fastest in 2nd Practice and 10th-quick in Happy Hour. How they will translate into race condition speed is up in the air, though. In recent intermediate tri-oval tracks, Carl has finished 5th (Kansas) and 10th (Charlotte). At Texas specifically, he ended up 3rd here last time around and has finished 8th or better in four of the last five events. I’d consider Edwards a lock for a top 10 this weekend with a decent shot at a top 5 finish. I’d be more confident in this team this weekend if they would have ran more laps in practice. When that happens it’s usually a good sign that they have a really strong car. One positive is that Edwards did show up on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour, ranking 15th. He gets the 8th spot over teammate Greg Biffle because of the differential in starting position.
9. Greg Biffle – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
The 2013 season has been anything but normal for The Biff. He’s performed well at tracks where he shouldn’t and struggled at the venues where he should be challenging for the win. One of the exceptions thus far, however, has been Texas. The #16 Ford struggled early the last time we were here, ending up starting 35th after qualifying, but the team came through on Sunday and Biffle finished 4th–his tenth straight top 10 at this track. That’s not a typo; Greg Biffle has finished 10th or better in every single race at Texas Motor Speedway since the 2008 season. So, with that being said, I’m really not worried about his mediocre qualifying effort here on Friday (18th). In terms of practice on Saturday, Biffle had some pretty good speed–at least in terms of one fast lap. He ranked 5th in 2nd Practice and wound up 9th-fastest in Happy Hour. The #16 Ford didn’t show up on either ten-lap average chart, though–not that it’s surprising–so as far as long run speed your guess is as good as mine. I don’t know if he’s going to be able to replicate his top 5 here back in April, but I’m fully expecting a top 10 finish out of the #16 team in Sunday’s AAA Texas 500. It’s worth noting that this team constantly looks like junk in practice but comes through in the race. I can’t explain it, so maybe it’s a good thing that this team was pretty fast on Saturday. Greg hasn’t finished worse than 16th in a Sprint Cup race since late July and that won’t change this weekend.
10. Kasey Kahne – Starts 11th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
You may be asking, “Kasey Kahne–high risk–what?” Yep. Even on his best days, Kasey is hard to trust. His nickname should be Mr. Inconsistent. In 18 career starts at Texas Motor Speedway, Kahne has one visit to victory lane (back in 2006) but only five top 10s. That’s to go along with eight finishes outside of the top 20. Yeah, not exactly reliable. In addition to that, what has happened to this team? They had that awesome run at Charlotte earlier this month, where Kasey led 138 laps en route to a runner-up finish, but that’s their only top 10 in the last NINE Sprint Cup events. The rest of the Hendrick cars are doing fine, so this has to come down to the driver, right? On Sunday, Kahne is either going to give you a race-winning effort or finish in the mid-teens. I have him ranked 10th just because I like him a little bit better than the guys below. But still, is it worth taking on that much risk this late in the season? The Chase is when I like to get conservative with my picks, personally, and if you’re attempting a “Hail Mary” to gain points this week, going against the guys above will not end will, I can almost guarantee you. The #5 Chevrolet was 5th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour, which is encouraging, but this race is going to end in the night and this team has shown that they aren’t capable of adjusting in those conditions. Kasey has finished 11th or better in three of the last four Texas races, though, so he might be worth a shot in some leagues.
11. Joey Logano – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Logano’s record here at Texas Motor Speedway actually isn’t all that impressive. Over the course of 10 career starts here, he owns an average finish of 21.7 with just two top 10s. The good news? Both of those top 10s were also top 5s, and one of those came the last time we were here, back in April. It’s also worth noting that Logano finished 11th in this event last season while still with Joe Gibbs Racing. You should know by now that I consider Joey one of the top intermediate racers in the series right now, so looking at his past on this track isn’t something that should be heavily considered when making your fantasy picks. The fact of the matter is this: the Penske Fords have been strong on this track type all season long, and while teammate Brad Keselowski is absolutely blazing fast here at Texas this weekend, Logano isn’t that far behind. The #22 was 13th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday but then regressed a bit in Happy Hour, ending up P21. Still, “Sliced Bread” was able to post the 11th-best ten-lap average during that final session, so maybe the car just takes a while to come in. Joey will start Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 from the 12th position and should be a top 15 car all night. By the end of the race, I think he’ll have a shot at a top 10, but probably not much more. This team has been a top 5 machine on the intermediate tri-ovals this season (Kansas, Atlanta, Kentucky, Charlotte) but I just don’t see that happening this weekend. Still, Logano is going to be a solid pick in most leagues on Sunday.
12. Kevin Harvick – Starts 19th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Even after Kevin Harvick’s (accurate) statements about the Dillon brothers last weekend, Richard Childress said he’s still committed to giving this #29 team the best possible equipment for the rest of the season. Harvick is only 28 points out of the championship lead going into Sunday’s race, so this team technically still has something to race for just in case something happens to the leaders. Still, I think that lead grows larger heading into Phoenix. Texas has been a pretty solid race track for Harvick but he doesn’t really have that many great runs here. He finished 13th here back in April and in six of the last ten Texas events, the #29 Chevrolet has posted a top 10 finish. Only one of those, however, was also a top 5. One very positive note, however, is that on this track type over the last two seasons, Harvick has the 2nd-best average finish at 9.0. He also has finished inside the top 10 in each of the last six intermediate tri-oval races and has wins at Kansas and Charlotte during that span. I don’t think he’ll be in contention for Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 but a top 10 isn’t out of the question. Harvick was 9th-fastest in 2nd Practice on Saturday and ranked 20th in Happy Hour, which I’ll admit is a little discouraging. He was 8th and 10th in ten-lap average during those sessions, respectively. Harvick will start mid-pack in 19th when the green flag waves on Sunday but I’m not worried about that because he usually starts in the mid-20s and works his way to the front. He’ll do that again this weekend.
13. Kurt Busch – Starts 31st – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
In allocation leagues, I hope you used Kurt Busch while he was hot. This team hasn’t completely fallen apart, but they’re not performing at the level we’ve become used to. At least we know what we might be getting in 2014 when Kurt moves to Stewart-Haas. Anyway, to this weekend. The #78 Chevrolet will start Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 from the 31st starting spot. It’s not ideal, obviously, but that doesn’t break my hopes entirely with this team, as they’ve shown before that they can get a good finish despite stinking it up in qualifying and practice. The main this Kurt Busch has going for him this weekend is how this team has performed on this track type in 2013. In the last six races at intermediate tri-oval tracks, Kurt has finished 6th or better in five of them, including his 2nd-place run at Kansas earlier this month. I’m not saying he’s going to be able to replicate that, but a top 10 isn’t out of the question. Busch was 7th on the speed chart in Saturday’s first practice and ranked 8th in Happy Hour. He ran 8th in this race last year while with Furniture Row after starting 18th. Kurt Busch would be an excellent pick in NASCAR.com’s Fantasy Live. He said they need to work on long run speed for the race, and I don’t disagree: the #78 was 18th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Whether or not they figure that problem out is the difference between a top 10 finish and a top 20 finish.
14. Clint Bowyer – Starts 26th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Clint Bowyer owns the 5th-best average finish among active drivers here at Texas Motor Speedway with 12.9. He’s never visited victory lane in the “Lone Star State” but he does have four top 10s in the last six races here, and seven in the last eleven if you extend it out. The only thing I’m really concerned with Bowyer on Sunday is his starting position. Most people, track position to start the race doesn’t mean much, especially on these larger speedways. However, this #15 team has shown time and time again in 2013 that when they get mired back in traffic, they really struggle in getting to the front. Bowyer has a pretty solid race car this weekend but that speed won’t mean much if his team can’t think of a way to get him out of traffic. The #15 Toyota was quickest in Saturday’s first practice session and ranked 12th in Happy Hour. In terms of ten-lap average, Clint was 14th in that final session. He’d be ranked much higher in my mind if he would have qualified better on Friday. Still, Bowyer might be worth a shot in NASCAR.com’s Fantasy Live (although his price point isn’t overly attractive). On the intermediate tri-oval tracks as of late, this team has finished 11th (Charlotte), 14th (Kansas), and 9th (Chicago). A top 10 is possible out of Clint on Sunday but I’d say a top 15 is much more likely.
15. Jamie McMurray – Starts 24th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Momentum-wise, you might not find anyone better than Jamie McMurray right now–well, outside of the “top” guys like Johnson and Kenseth. In the last five Sprint Cup races, Jamie Mac has averaged 33.4 points per race, which is better than guys like Greg Biffle (32.6), Kyle Busch (32.2), Brad Keselowski (27.4), and Kasey Kahne (26.0). This team hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 since the Michigan race back in August and I don’t expect that to change this Sunday. The #1 team has ended up between 14th and 18th in each of the last three Texas events, and with the way they are running right now, I could see them ending up even better than that when the checkered flag waves on Sunday–if they continually work on the car and make it better. During the Saturday practice sessions McMurray was in the mid-20s in each. That’s discouraging, but momentum means a lot to me in fantasy racing, especially late in the season. Another knock I have on McMurray this weekend is that he starts 24th, but at a track like this, starting position isn’t extremely important. Five of the top 10 finishers here back in April started 15th or worse. You should only use the #1 car this week if you really need a deep sleeper. I’d say a top 15 is the limit for this team.
A Few Words About Other Drivers:
Ryan Newman actually has been pretty solid on the intermediate tri-ovals this season, with top 10 finishes in three of the last four and only two results outside of the top 15 in the nine races on those tracks this year. He qualified 13th and can probably run top 15 on Sunday, I just don’t really pay much attention to him unless he shows up high on the speed charts–which didn’t happen on Saturday. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. will start 9th on Sunday and could have a shot at a top 10 finish if all goes well for this team. For those in the Yahoo! game that saved Stenhouse, good job. I said all year that this team will really come around once we start hitting some tracks for a second time. The #17 was 11th-fastest in Happy Hour and had the 13th-best ten-lap average. Recently on this track type, Stenhouse finished 13th at Charlotte and 8th at Chicago. Paul Menard is a nice darkhorse pick if you’re looking for one this weekend. He qualified 4th on Friday and posted the 3rd-best lap in Happy Hour on Saturday. What’s discouraging is that his ten-lap average during that final session was just 17th-best. Menard has finished between 15th and 18th in three of the last four Texas races and can be counted on for at least a finish similar to that this Sunday. Denny Hamlin and the #11 team are starting to build some momentum heading into the 2014 season with two top 10s in the last three Sprint Cup races. I still don’t trust him on the bigger tracks, though, and the #11 Toyota wasn’t blazing fast in practice this weekend. Hamlin also hasn’t finished inside the top 10 at Texas since his two wins here in 2010. Finally, Aric Almirola finished 7th here back in April but I wouldn’t expect anything similar to that this Sunday. That’s not to say a top 15 isn’t out of the question, though. The #43 Ford will roll off the grid in 17th on Sunday and this team had the 15th-fastest lap in Happy Hour.
