Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Phoenix 2 – AdvoCare 500 (2013 Chase Race #9)
Denny Hamlin’s Back
Just two races left in the 2013 season. We’re at Phoenix International Raceway this weekend for the AdvoCare 500. This track was re-paved and re-designed between the two stops during the 2011, which has tightened the field a little bit and made the races more competitive. The first race on this new track was a crapshoot for many teams, so when analyzing stats this weekend I’d focus on the three races ran here since then. Probable championship winner Jimmie Johnson won the pole for Sunday’s AdvoCare 500, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. We had a “normal” practice schedule this weekend, and the results of both sessions on Saturday can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Be sure to check out our in-depth notes for those practices as well: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The AdvoCare 500:
*Chase drivers marked in red*
1. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 1st – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
There are two things to be said about Jimmie Johnson and the #48 team this weekend. 1. Redemption. This is the race last year where they lost the championship. “Five Time” was running in 7th before a flat tire put him in the wall and allowed Keselowski to take the points lead. 2. Domination. That’s the only word that’s gone through my head since the cars hit the track on Friday. Johnson went out and won the pole that day, and then on Saturday he had the best ten-lap average in Practice #2 and ranked 4th on that chart in Happy Hour. Unless Chad Knaus tells his driver to take the foot off the gas a bit and play conservative on Sunday, the #48 could very well lead the most laps once again en route to yet another victory and Sprint Cup championship. Back in March, Johnson ended up 2nd to Carl Edwards and that makes 12 top 5s in the last 14 Phoenix races for “Five Time.” There’s no reason to think that it won’t be 13 in the last 15 once the checkered flag waves on Sunday. It’s Johnson’s championship to lose now and he knows that. There’s no one I trust more under pressure than the five-time champion.
2. Jeff Gordon – Starts 5th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Well, Jeff Gordon finally ended his strong lost weekend with this 38th-place finish at Texas. You can’t predict mechanical failures, though, so I won’t hold it against him. Flat tracks are the venues where you can trust Gordon no matter what, and the fact that this #24 Chevrolet has been fast all weekend (and for the past two-and-a-half months for that matter) is just an added bonus. On this “new” Phoenix, Jeff has been pretty solid when he’s kept his cool. We’re going to disregard the 2012 fall race because that’s when he had his meltdown and went after Clint Bowyer. In the 2012 spring race, Gordon started 30th but ended up 8th, and this season, back in March, he ended up 9th after qualifying 5th. In Sunday’s AdvoCare 500 he will start from P5 and looks to have a car capable of running near the front all day long. In Practice #2, the #24 Chevrolet was 4th on the speed chart and in Happy Hour Gordon was 2nd right behind Clint Bowyer. In terms of ten-lap average in that final session, Jeff was 2nd-quickest. This team has posted a finish of 8th or better in 8 of the last 11 Sprint Cup races and should make it 9 in the last 12 on Sunday.
3. Kyle Busch – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Can we just forget that this year’s spring race ever happened when it comes to Kyle Busch? Records show that he finished 23rd with a driver rating of 60.3, but that is not a fair representation of the car that Rowdy had. First, he started that race from the back of the field due to an engine change. By lap 38 (mind you, this is a 1-mile race track) he was up 27 positions into 16th but spun out ten laps later all by himself. I’m chalking that up to over-driving, and instead of focusing on that I’m going to check out the other two races on the “new” Phoenix. During the 2012 spring race, Busch started 12th, led 52 laps and was 6th when the checkered flag flew. One year ago in this event, the #18 Toyota was probably the best car, as Rowdy led 237 of the 319 laps en route to a 3rd-place finish. He had an incredible average running position of 4th over those two events. That’s the good news for fantasy owners this weekend. Now for the bad: Momentum-wise, Kyle Busch is lacking right now. He’s not having terrible runs as of late, but his 15th- and 13th-place results at Martinsville and Texas over the last two weekends have been disappointing to say the least. The #18 team struggled a bit in 2nd Practice on Saturday but the good news for them is that that practice won’t mean much for Sunday’s race. In Happy Hour, Rowdy was 7th on the overall speed chart and 5th on the ten-lap average chart. He’ll have a shot at a top 5 on Sunday in the desert and might be able to challenge for the win if everything goes right.
4. Kevin Harvick – Starts 9th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
One driver that has really excelled since the re-pave/reconfiguration is Kevin Harvick. He’s the defending race winner of this race and ended up 2nd in the spring race here in 2012. This March, Harvick started 7th but was 13th when the checkered flag waved. However, that was due to getting caught back in traffic. Kevin still had a driver rating of 108.4 in that race and an average running position of 7th. In terms of ten-lap average during the practice sessions this weekend, Harvick was 2nd on that chart in Practice #2 and then had the best average in Happy Hour. He was also inside the top 10 on both fast lap speed charts. On Friday, the #29 Chevrolet ended up 9th on the chart in qualifying, and although track position isn’t super important at this track, it’s still nice to start up front. This team brought chassis no. 430 to Phoenix this weekend which is the same one that ended up 3rd at Chicago in September. Harvick has ended up 8th or better in five of the last six Sprint Cup races and the exception to that was his 12th-place run at Talladega. If, somehow, Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth have problems on Sunday (crazier things have happened), Harvick will put himself right in the thick of things heading into Homestead because he’s pretty much a lock for a solid top 10–if not top 5–finish in the AdvoCare 500.
5. Joey Logano – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
“Sliced Bread” has had results of 27th and 26th in the last two Phoenix races and a career average finish of 18th over nine career starts. Those statistics alone will scare away a lot of fantasy owners. Don’t be one of them. In the three races on the “new” Phoenix, Logano has an average running position of 12.7 (good enough for 9th-best in the series) and has spent 83.8% of the laps ran inside the top 15 (6th-best). What’s killed Joey–and his fantasy owners–is simple bad luck. He was running 11th here in March but ran out of gas with 5 laps to go, and in this event one year ago he was running 6th before getting swept up in the whole Jeff Gordon/Clint Bowyer debacle. In the five races prior to that, Logano finished 11th or better four times. This #22 team has been on a bit of a roller coaster in terms of finishes here as of late, but usually when they have a good qualifying run during the race weekend, a good race run follows. Logano will start the AdvoCare 500 from 3rd-place on Sunday. In Happy Hour, he was right there with Harvick, Gordon, and Johnson in terms of ten-lap average ranking 3rd on the chart. If he stays out of trouble Logano will be a solid fantasy pick in the AdvoCare 500. He gets a slight nod over Junior in my rankings simply because he qualified 3rd.
6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Junior has a real solid car to pilot this weekend as it is the same chassis (88-818) that he finished 6th with at Loudon in September. On Friday he went out and qualified 11th for Sunday’s AdvoCare 500–by far his best starting position since this track was reconfigured–and had the 11th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour on Saturday. The #88 team came away with a solid 5th-place finish here back in March and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see them inside the top 5 once again on Sunday. Earnhardt has runner-up finishes in two of the last three Sprint Cup races and has been incredibly solid over the last two months, finishing no worse than 15th and 8th or better in six of the seven races. Since the Bristol 2 race back in August only three drivers (Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, and Kyle Busch) have scored more Cup points than Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Momentum-wise Junior is a good pick this weekend, and the fact that he has a good car is just an added bonus.
7. Matt Kenseth – Starts 14th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Kenseth said this week that in order to win this year’s championship he’s going to have to win the remaining two races on the schedule. Sorry, Kenseth fans, but that’s just not going to happen. He’ll be a contender next week at Homestead, but I just don’t see the #20 being good enough this weekend in Phoenix to contend. Kenseth had the 7th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour, which is nice, and in the three races on the “new” Phoenix, Kenseth has finished 13th, 14th, and (most recently back in March) 7th. Surprisingly–to me anyway–he’s tied (with JJ, of course) for the 4th-best average running position over those three races (10.0) This team has three top 5s in the last four Sprint Cup races but going into the AdvoCare 500, I just don’t see the #20 as a sure-fire top 5 pick. This is a relatively short race and I’d be more confident if Kenseth would have qualified better on Friday (he will start 14th on Sunday). One thing worth noting is that Matt is running the Nationwide race this weekend, presumably to get some more track time. He will openly admit that this is not his best track at all. This team better wish for some bad luck to hit Jimmie Johnson because unless something drastic happens on Sunday, the #48 team will be able to take it a little easy next week en route to yet another championship.
8. Denny Hamlin – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
While this team was in the middle of their 16-race streak without a top 10 finish, I constantly told you to avoid Hamlin in fantasy until 2014 rolled around. Well, I’m backing off on that statement now–but just a bit. Lo and behold, Denny’s back feels “great” and he has three top 10s in the last four Sprint Cup races. Look for him to make it four out of five come Sunday. Statistically, Hamlin has been the best driver on this new Phoenix track. In the last three events here, he has finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd all while leading 107 laps and having the 2nd-best average driver rating (117.5). Jimmie Johnson and Hamlin were the only two drivers to break the 119-mph mark during qualifying on Sunday and will start 1-2 in this year’s AdvoCare 500. On Saturday, however, the #11 team really struggled. Denny was in the 20s during both sessions and wasn’t impressive in terms of ten-lap average either. Maybe they were working on something experimental, I don’t know, but their teammates have speed so I’m assuming they’ll change some things before the race on Sunday and possibly migrate to a different package. This team is building momentum for next season and barring an experimental engine in the car this weekend (this is the time of year we see those) I think Hamlin has a shot at a top 5 finish on Sunday–and possibly a win if this team plays their cards right. As far as an experimental engine goes, I haven’t heard anything Hamlin running one this weekend, but something like that is usually mentioned in the crew chief notes, so be sure to check those out before finalizing your picks on Sunday.
9. Brad Keselowski – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
In the three races on the “new” Phoenix, Brad Keselowski has ran an incredible 95.1% of the laps inside the top 15. He’s also had an average running position of 7th in those events (only Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin have been better) and Kez’s average finish of 5th is even better–as that’s what really matters when it comes to fantasy racing. The story of the year has been when the Penske Fords have good qualifying efforts, they’re generally good in race conditions, too. BK qualified 12th on Friday and should be at least a solid top 10 pick on Sunday. The Blue Deuce was consistent all day on Saturday and had the 9th-best ten-lap average during the final practice session. It was noted that Keselowski wasn’t overly thrilled with his car, but it looks fine to me on the speed charts. This team has finished 6th or better in three of the last four Sprint Cup races and if they can adjust on their car throughout the race on Sunday, they should be able to make it four in the last five. It helps that Keselowski’s teammate, Joey Logano, has a blazing fast Ford this weekend, so they could possibly share notes.
10. Kurt Busch – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
The season’s winding down, this team is out of the championship picture, and the driver is headed out the door–not exactly the best scenario for fantasy owners. We’re at the point in the year where you start questioning whether drivers in Kurt Busch’s situation are getting the best equipment available and whether or not the organization is starting the transition process for next year. The good news is that a driver’s skill can compensate (a little) for an under-powered car at Phoenix (I’m just not sure Kurt has the patience). The #78 was 8th-fastest in qualifying on Friday and was able to post real fast laps during the practice sessions on Saturday. However, Kurt ranked 12th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. I would’ve liked to see him be a little faster, but I’m not overly concerned. Busch finished 8th in this event last season while with Furniture Row and, just going off of overall history, tends to have good finishes when he starts near the front at this track. It’s risky but in leagues like Yahoo! you might consider giving Kurt a shot. It’s worth noting that he has only one top 10 finish in the last seven Sprint Cup races, but this team has been reliable in terms of getting a mid-teens finish every week.
11. Clint Bowyer – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Bowyer is one of the top flat track racers in the series and part of that is due to how Michael Waltrip Racing excels on this track type. Still, without considering anything else, I’d pick the #15 over a lot of other drivers this weekend if we’re talking solely about talent. Too bad we’re not. This team has under-performed all season long, and while Bowyer is (statistically) having the 2nd-best season of his career, it’s hard to believe that he won three times last year and finished 2nd in points. In case you forgot, this race last season was the one where Jeff Gordon went nuts and took out the #15, delegating Bowyer to a 28th-place finish. The latter was running around the top 5 when that little incident took place. Assuming that doesn’t happen again, Clint should still be a solid pick on Sunday, although there is a little bit more risk than usual. He had the fastest lap in Happy Hour but wasn’t happy with the car at all, saying the front end wouldn’t turn. They were working on the car so much that they never even made a run of 10+ laps. Back in March, this #15 team ended up 6th, and in terms of recent overall success, Bowyer has just one finish worse than 11th in the last six Sprint Cup races–and that was his 14th-place run at Kansas. The #15 Toyota will roll off of the grid in 6th for the AdvoCare 500 and should be a top 10 car all day long–as long as they can get the front end to turn before the green flag flies.
12. Jeff Burton – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This guy doesn’t even deserve a Cup ride (in my opinion) but he’s solid on the flat tracks and if you’re desperate, only the finishes matter when it comes to fantasy racing. The #31 team got a solid top 10 finish here back in March after running 13th in this event one year ago. Burton ended up 33rd in the other Phoenix race in 2012, but if you look at his race chart (click here) you’ll notice that he pretty much had a top 10 car all day–he even led 7 laps–before the engine blew. The fact that Jeff Burton is even making my top 15 should show you how much confidence I have in him on this type of track. In addition to his 10th-place run at Phoenix at the start of the season, Jeff also finished 3rd and 8th at the two Loudon races and 11th at Martinsville a couple of weeks ago. This weekend the #31 team brought the same chassis that finished 14th at Dover in September. They should be able to get a solid top 15 finish once again here at Phoenix on Sunday and could have a shot at a top 10 if things go well. The #31 was 10th-best in terms of ten-lap average in Happy Hour on Saturday, and although Burton wasn’t really able to put down a blazing fast lap, he seems to have long run speed. Jeff will start the AdvoCare 500 from 15th place, which is actually a lot better than his recent qualifying results at this track (33rd and 20th).
13. Mark Martin – Starts 16th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
To be honest, I’m pretty hard on Mark Martin, but it’s just because he’s burned me so many times in fantasy racing. Also because he’s too conservative while racing, but mainly because I’ve been burned so much. And although I generally do not recommend picking him, I will this weekend, because the guy can simply get around this track, both before and after the re-configuration. In the two races here last season, Martin had top 10 efforts in both, and he sat on the pole here back in March before ultimately disappointing fantasy owners (big surprise, huh?) with his 21st-place result. Martin’s inability to finish races is why I have him as “High Risk,” but if he can put one together on Sunday I think he has a good shot at a top 15. He ranked 13th on the ten-lap average chart during Happy Hour and was 4th on that chart in 2nd Practice. This is the same chassis that Tony Stewart was running 2nd with at Loudon in July before running out of fuel on the final lap. Martin finished 11th last weekend at Texas but still hasn’t posted a top 10 since back in early September at Richmond. I wouldn’t expect one this weekend, either, but it’s not out of the question.
14. Carl Edwards – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
I’m not going to lie, I’m still pretty bitter over the blown engine at Texas last weekend. But, as I always say, sometimes you have to have a short memory with fantasy racing. Cousin Carl is a total hit-or-miss pick here at Phoenix. Looking at his overall record here, he has ten finishes of 7th or better in 18 career starts (including two wins) to go along with five results outside of the top 15. In the last three races here on the “new” Phoenix track, Edwards has ended up 17th, 11th, and 1st. I don’t know if you remember his win back in March but he wasn’t on many people’s radars that weekend, at least as a contender. He led 122 laps that day, and that’s pretty much been the story for this team all season long: we don’t know what they have going into the race–and they probably don’t either (kidding…maybe). I’ve stopped trying to decipher this team’s practice results but I’ll tell you this: the fact that the #99 never made a run of ten or more laps in Happy Hour is concerning to me. Then again, they seem to do this every weekend, so I can’t say I’m surprised. This team brought the same chassis this weekend that finished 9th at Loudon and Edwards could finish anywhere from 5th to 25th at Phoenix on Sunday. He ranked 9th on the overall speed chart in Happy Hour, which is a positive.
15. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Martin Truex, Jr. has been a mid-teens driver for pretty much the entire Chase this season and I’m expecting more of the same on Sunday. He qualified 10th, which is nice, but I wouldn’t consider the #56 a top 10 car, at least speed-wise. Truex was 14th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour and posted the 12th-best lap. He ran 7th here at Phoenix in the 2012 spring race but in the two races since it has been a struggle for the #56 team. Last fall, Martin qualified 2nd but his engine blew in the opening laps of the race and he finished dead last. Then, this spring, he was running near the top 10 when he had an axle problem. As you know by now, though, you can’t predict mechanical failures and I’m not about to start doing so. When it comes to fantasy racing, all you can really do is pick the fastest drivers and hope for the best. Truex isn’t the fastest this weekend but his car seems consistent enough for a top 15 and maybe a top 10 if things go right. The MWR Toyotas really excel on flat tracks.
A Few Words About Other Drivers:
Ryan Newman didn’t impress me much on Saturday but he rarely does. Still, he loves flat tracks and he always seems to get the finishes on them. Five of the last seven Phoenix races have ended with “The Rocketman” inside the top 5 when the checkered flag waves. This team does have three top 10s in the last four Sprint Cup races and grab another on Sunday, I just like a few other drivers more than Newman going into the AdvoCare 500. Juan Montoya is generally a decent sleeper option when we stop here at Phoenix. He’s finished either 11th or 12th in each of the last three races on the new surface but starts 19th on Sunday and wasn’t overly impressive on the speed charts–although he did end up 8th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. A top 15 isn’t out of the question for the #42 team. His teammate, Jamie McMurray, qualified 36th on Friday and then put in Montoya’s setup before the two practice sessions on Saturday. Jamie Mac was 11th-quick in Practice #2 and 14th-fastest in Happy Hour (with the 6th-best ten-lap average). If he started closer to the front I’d like McMurray more as a sleeper. If he can get track position I think he has a car that can challenge for a top 10 at the end of the day. Greg Biffle starts 18th and was junk in practice. It seems like it’s the same story every single week yet he finishes inside the top 10. I don’t know how this team does it, but The Biff is far too risky of a pick for me to consider him this weekend. Kasey Kahne has looked mediocre to me all weekend. Yeah, he qualified 7th, but realistically I don’t think this team has a shot at a top 10 finish. It’s worth nothing, however, that Kahne has top 5 finishes in each of the last two fall races at Phoenix, including his win here in 2011.
