Post Practice Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – STP 500

Rain in Martinsville Can’t Wash Away Favorites

Coming into the weekend, I thought that we would get a pretty predictable race, as those at Martinsville tend to be. Of course that couldn’t happen, as rain was a factor both on Friday and Saturday. They got Practice #1 and qualifying in on Friday but Practice #2 and Happy Hour were rained out on Saturday. The races here are generally some of the easiest to pick for fantasy, simply because the same drivers tend to always be up front. However, because this is a half-mile race track, there is more of a concern of drivers wrecking into each other. The limited practice data is making me lean even harder on past statistics this week, although I do think this is the week to use some sleepers if you’re feeling lucky. There were a few teams that did work on race trim Friday. Be sure to check out Practice #1 speeds (click here) and Ryan’s notes from that session (click here). Kyle Busch is on the pole and the full starting lineup for this year’s STP 500 can be found by clicking here.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The STP 500:

11. Clint Bowyer – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Is bad luck the correct word for what’s going on with Clint Bowyer this season? The #15 team has yet to post a top 10 finish in 2014, and I really think most fantasy owners are starting to lose faith in them. As of Thursday morning, just 6% of Yahoo! rosters had Bowyer on them, and that’s somewhat significant considering he’s riding a 3-race streak of top 5s here at Martinsville, with top 10 finishes in five of the last six events. Clint is driving a brand new chassis at “The Paperclip” this weekend and it has a lot of speed–which, unfortunately, is exactly what we’ve been saying almost every race this year. The #15 Toyota will roll off the grid in 12th on Sunday and Clint was able to lay down the 4th-best lap in practice on Firday. Bowyer is a very good flat track racer and hasn’t finished worse than 11th in the spring race here at Martinsville since 2006, but as I said last week, at some point you really have to take into account momentum and how much good (or, in this case, bad) luck a driver and team are having. I don’t have a problem sprinkling Clint around in a few fantasy rosters, but I wouldn’t lean on him majorly this weekend. Wait until the #15 team gets a few good runs under their belt; we’ve seen that Bowyer can perform at a top level, he’s just going through a rough patch right now. This will probably be the week that he goes out and wins because I have him ranked so low (doesn’t that always seem to happen?)

12. Carl Edwards – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The way that I describe Carl Edwards at Martinsville Speedway is that he’s consistently on the verge of being a very good fantasy pick. The #99 Ford isn’t going to blow the competition away when we stop at “The Paperclip,” but there are going to be plenty of worse picks than Edwards as well. Over 19 career starts, Carl has averaged a finish of right around 16th. His best year here was in 2008–when he finished 9th and 3rd–and over the last five races at this track, the #99 Ford has come home inside the top 15 in four of them. That being said, Edwards owns just one top 10 over that span as well. As I said, consistent, but not on the top of your fantasy pick ’em sheets. This weekend, crew chief Jimmy Fennig decided on chassis RK-866 for Carl to run, which is the same one that this team had at Phoenix last fall where they ran out of gas in the final laps while leading. Edwards is emerging as a solid flat track racer and eventually that will show in his Martinsville finishes. The good news this weekend is that he had a very nice qualifying run on Friday, ending up 8th. It’s worth noting that Carl Edwards hasn’t had a driver rating better than 92.7 at this track since the 2008 season.

13. Ryan Newman – Starts 16th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

“The Rocketman” is piloting a brand new chassis this weekend at Martinsville Speedway, and this was one track that ex-#31 Jeff Burton could be relied upon as a fantasy sleeper pick. Newman is nowhere near a sleeper pick, but I would put him into the category of “pretty good” here at “The Paperclip.” He had a very rough couple of races here in 2013 (finishing 38th and 31st) but let’s not forget that Newman won here in 2012 and has six finishes of 11th or better in the last ten events at Martinsville. This #31 team has gotten off to a very fast (and somewhat surprising) start to the 2014 season and this is a track type that Ryan typically excels at. If not for a blown tire late in the race last weekend at Fontana, Newman would be rolling into Martinsville with three top 10s in the last four Cup races. Look for him to get back on track this Sunday and challenge for another good finish in the STP 500. Newman qualified 16th on Friday, but that’s typical out of a guy like him. Don’t let that concern you.

14. Greg Biffle – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

This #16 team needs a top 10 finish badly. They did end up 8th in the season-opening Daytona 500, but since then Greg Biffle hasn’t been able to crack the top 10 and two of the last three races have ended with him outside of the top 20. If he’s going to turn things around, though, these next two weeks will be when it happens. The Biff isn’t dominant here at Martinsville, but he’s consistent. He’s currently riding a three-race streak of top 10s at “The Paperclip” and hasn’t finished worse than 15th here since early 2011. I don’t think that the latter will change on Sunday, but I have a hard time seeing the #16 as a top 10 threat going into the STP 500. This team is just missing something every week, and Greg has never had a triple-digit driver rating at Martinsville. I also wasn’t impressed with the 22nd-place ranking on the speed chart in practice on Friday. There are very few leagues that I would consider using Biffle this week, as I think a top 15 if the best this team can do on Sunday. Wait until Texas next week.

15. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 26th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

This #88 crew now has back-to-back finishes outside of the top 10, but Martinsville is the perfect track for them to get back on the horse. In five of his last seven starts here, Dale has posted top 10 finishes, although he normally doesn’t lead many laps. However, my biggest concern right now for the #88 team is their qualifying effort; this is a relatively short race (just 250 miles) and Junior will start from mid-pack in 26th on Sunday. He also said the car was “way, way off” in practice on Friday. Junior gets somewhat overshadowed by his teammates and their success at this track, but NASCAR’s most popular driver still owns the 6th-best average finish here among active drivers (13.2) and has ended up inside the top 5 in a little over 35% of his starts at “The Paperclip.” Going into Sunday’s STP 500, I think he has a top 15 car at best, but if Steve Letarte can adjust on it (which I know he can), the #88 might be able to crack the top 10 before it’s all said and done.

A Few Words About Other Drivers:

For the first time all season, Kevin Harvick didn’t have a blazing fast hot rod in practice. He has just one top 10 in the last four Martinsville races and will roll off the grid in 18th on Sunday. I think the #4 could be a top 10 car by the end of the 250 miles, but why take a chance with Harvick when there are other options that are not only safer but also faster? His teammate, Kurt Busch, hates this track and it’s no secret. I would too if I haven’t posted a top 10 finish here in almost 10 years–seriously, the last time that happened (2005) Kurt was driving for Roush. On a positive note, he’s piloting a brand new chassis this weekend. He’ll start in 22nd on Sunday and could crack the top 15, but I wouldn’t expect much else. Marcos Ambrose is good at managing his brakes and that can pay dividends here at Martinsville. He was 7th-fastest in practice on Friday and ended up qualifying 17th later that day. A top 15 isn’t out of the question for the #9 team. Marcos has finished 19th or better in three of the last four Martinsville races, including his 8th-place run in this event last season. Attention: Paul Menard, you officially have my attention. This #27 team has two top 10s in the last three weeks and has shown some speed this weekend at Martinsville. Menard was 9th on the speed chart in practice on Friday and had the 3rd-best ten-lap average. The bad news? He’ll start in 21st on Sunday. Paul has finished 22nd, 19th, and 12th in the last three Martinsville races. Finally, Kasey Kahne didn’t impress anyone with his 27th-place qualifying effort on Friday, and I see absolutely no reason to pick him this week. He has just two top 10 finishes in the last 14 Martinsville races and won’t get a third on Sunday without a whole lot of luck/help. Those two results were 2nd and 3rd-place finishes in the fall of 2012 and in this event last season, though.

Lower-Tier Drivers:

The races at Martinsville are generally easy to predict who will be up front. From 11th through 25th, however, it can get tricky, and although I like to be conservative early on in the season, I’m not against taking chances with sleepers this Sunday–and there’s quite a few that I actually like. Earlier this week in our Yahoo! rankings, I listed A.J. Allmendinger as a start/save sleeper, and I almost pulled the trigger on him before rosters locked on Friday. This team is coming off of a great run at Fontana (8th-place) and, historically, Martinsville has been a nice track for The Dinger. He finished 2nd here back in 2012 while still driving for Penske, and in his three starts prior to that (with Richard Petty Motorsports), A.J. ended up 12th, 14th, and 11th. Allmendinger qualified 15th on Friday and makes for one of the top sleeper options heading into Sunday. Going on, I’m really interested to see what Danica Patrick can do with her 10th-place starting position on Sunday. Martinsville has been her best track in her brief Sprint Cup career, as Danica ended up 17th and 12th here in the two races last season. Luck has also been on Patrick’s side recently, as over the last three Sprint Cup races she hasn’t had a result worse than 21st–and she actually posted a top 15 at Fontana last Sunday. In allocation leagues like Yahoo!, Danica is a great choice (I can’t believe that I just said that either). Rookies Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson aren’t worth the risk this week. They qualified 34th and 28th (respectively) and this just isn’t a very nice track to first-year Cup competitors. Larson did race here last fall and ended up 42nd after blowing an engine. It’s going to take some luck and other drivers wrecking for either Dillon or Larson to finish inside the top 20 on Sunday. One sleeper pick to consider in really deep leagues is Casey Mears. He qualified 23rd on Friday for the STP 500 and 14th at Phoenix earlier this month (another flat track). He ended up 16th and 21st here at Martinsville last season.