Kentucky Quaker State 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Joey Logano – Joey Logano is a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Kentucky Quaker State 400. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks he belongs in the conversation for being the best driver on this track type. At these venues minus Auto Club he has the best driver rating and a 6.0 average finish. On 1.5 mile tracks specifically he has a 5.3 average finish and is the only driver with 3 top fives. Because of how strong he’s been on this track type his odds to win are 8-1. In the Nationwide Series Logano has been successful at Kentucky and at one point he won three consecutive races.  Last year at Kentucky Logano ran a great race. From about lap 120 to the conclusion of the event he consistently ran in the top 5. When the checkered flag waved he finished 4th and earned the 4th best driver rating. In 2012 Logano performed much better than he finished. Around lap #160 he was battling Clint Bowyer for 10th but Ryan Newman ran into the back of him and that shot his car down the track right into Clint Bowyer. This contact forced him to make an emergency pit stop. When the checkered flag waved he crossed the finish line in 22nd. In the inaugural race at Kentucky he started in 15th, finished in 14th and had an average running position of 16th. On Saturday night he’ll be driving his Darlington chassis. In that race he was running in 10th place on lap 358 until he had problems under his hood. In practice Logano never ran 10 consecutive laps. I wouldn’t be concerned about that. His car is always close to Keselowski’s and in practice #1 his teammate had the best 10 lap average. Also in that session he ran 50 laps and you don’t run that many laps if you don’t like your car. On Saturday Joey Logano will start in 2^nd.

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2. Brad Keselowski – Brad Keselowski has one advantage on much of the competition Saturday night. He recently took part in the Goodyear tire test. I think it’s safe to assume he learned something from the test because his car looked good on Friday. In practice #1 he had the best 10 lap average. Also in that session he ran 50 laps so it must handle to his liking. Last year at Kentucky it’s hard to know just how good Keselowski was. He had a short race that ended in disaster. On lap 48 while he was running in 10th Kurt Busch had contact which sent him spinning across the track which brought out the red flag. In the other races at Kentucky he’s been successful. In 2012 he had a car that was good over long runs and got good fuel mileage. In that race he was able to drive hard in the closing laps and as a result he raced his way to victory lane. In that race he led 68 laps, had a second place average running position and earned the best driver rating (137.7). In 2011 at Kentucky he started in 5th, finished 7th and led 79 laps. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks he’s been one of the stronger performers. In the four combined races on 1.5 mile tracks he has second best driver rating, a 6.5 average running position and a 9.8 average finish. His odds to win are listed at 8-1. On Saturday night he’ll be driving his Darlington chassis. On Saturday Keselowski will start on the pole. The inaugural Kentucky race was won from this starting position.

Recommended Reading – Kentucky Post Practice Predictions (another post practice fantasy opinion to help you), Happy Hour Speeds and Averages, Happy Hour Notes, Practice #1 Speeds and Averages, Practice #1 Notes, Kentucky Starting Lineup, PROS Rankings (who had the best car at Kentucky last year), Kentucky Scouting Report (what happened at Kentucky last year), Get in your VOTE who will win the Kentucky Quaker State 400

3. Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick has a fast car but can he avoid problems? That’s been the story of the season for him and it continues once again in the Kentucky Quaker State 400. In practice he started a little bit off but it got tuned to his liking throughout the day. In Happy Hour he started off the session with a 13 lap run. His ten lap average over that run ranked as the second best. Also in Happy Hour he said his car is loose on exit but it’s more manageable that way. His crew chief Rodney Childers has had success at Kentucky. He finished 2nd with Reutimann in 2011 and had top five potential with Brian Vickers last season so it should be clear he’ll have a good setup. On 1.5 mile tracks this season he’s been extremely good and has had top five potential in every race. Unfortunately he’s also had a lot of problems along the way. In the last two races on tracks of this length he’s avoided trouble and finished 2nd twice. Between Kansas and Charlotte he led 219 laps, had the best driver rating but was beat by self-inflicted mistakes in both races. To get really technical on this track type he now has 4 four second place finishes in a row when you count the All-Star race and Michigan. On Saturday night he’ll be racing his All-Star race chassis. This week his odds to win are listed at 9-2. Last season at Kentucky Harvick ran a good race. He had a 12th place average running position, finished 10th and earned the 9th best driver rating. From his 22nd starting position he moved up into the top five by lap 60. Then on lap 78 the caution came out during the pit cycle and that trapped him back in the high-teens. From that point to the conclusion of the race he slowly climbed up to his eventual 10th place finish. In 2012 he started in 4th, finished 11th and had an 11th place average running position. In 2011 he had an OK performance and finished 16th. In the inaugural race in the Nationwide Series at Kentucky Harvick went to victory lane. On Saturday Harvick will start in 5^th.