Daytona 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Coke Zero 400
Fireworks Both On And Off Track
We’re back for Daytona Round 2 this weekend, which–in my opinion–gives us fantasy racers a bit of an off week from studying and analyzing statistics. The races on restrictor plate tracks are so unpredictable that I have found that it is usually not time well spent to scrutinize the numbers. Still, we need some kind of basis to go off of, so I’ll briefly include some statistics throughout this article. At the bottom you will find the drivers ranked in terms of average finish and average driver rating on plate tracks in 2014. As always, my recommendation this week is to just make your rosters and enjoy the race. There was one practice session on Thursday–the second got rained out–and you can review the results by clicking here. Read Ryan’s notes on that practice by clicking here. DRIVER won the pole for Saturday night’s race, and you can view the full Coke Zero 400 starting lineup by clicking here.
Plate races also give me the opportunity to try some new things with my Predictions article. This weekend, I’m not going to waste your time by talking about the favorites–guys like Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, etc. We all already know that they will be popular picks in every league. So I’m going to dig deeper for those of you who are like me and like to think outside of the box when we come to Daytona or Talladega.
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Drivers With Momentum:
Paul Menard – I have long considered Paul Menard as one of the better plate racers in the series despite the fact that he has just six top 10s in 30 career starts between Daytona and Talladega. However, when you look at his top 20 numbers at the two tracks, it bumps up to 16 total, or just over half of the time. Menard put together a great month of June and his confidence right now has to be through the roof. Over the last six Sprint Cup races, Paul has one finish worse than 15th and has recorded four top 10s. Looking back at this year’s Daytona 500, the #27 Chevrolet came home in 32nd-place but Menard led 29 laps that day. He also led 10 laps at Talladega in May en route to a 6th-place finish.
Jamie McMurray – Another driver that is considered a solid choice at restrictor plate tracks is Jamie McMurray, who has two victories at both Daytona and Talladega. Before his blunder at Kentucky last weekend, Jamie had five straight finishes of 13th or better in Sprint Cup action including a couple of top 5s. He started the 2014 season with a 14th-place run in the Daytona 500, which is encouraging, and has ended up 7th and 13th in the last two July races here at Daytona. McMurray was the quickest in Practice #1 on Thursday, right ahead of teammate Kyle Larson. The only thing I’m kind of concerned about with the #1 Chevrolet this weekend is how many DNFs McMurray has posted here–seven in 23 starts (30.4%).
Kurt Busch – Kurt Busch hasn’t been putting up great finishes as of late–except for his 3rd-place run at Pocono–but this #41 team does have four straight finishes of 13th or better in Sprint Cup action, and that is excellent for them when you consider the kind of start they got off to this year. Kurt is continually lauded as a solid plate racer but I feel like he tends to disappoint a lot more than he doesn’t. He’s still a hothead driver and guys like that are either going to wreck out at Daytona or finish up front. Kurt did end up 6th in this race one year ago but that’s his only top 20 over the last five points-paying events at Daytona. On a positive note, he runs for Stewart-Haas and we all know how great their cars and engines have been all season long.
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Overrated Drivers At Daytona:
Trevor Bayne – If there’s anyone out there still clinging on to Trevor Bayne’s Daytona victory in 2011, I’m not sure I can help you. In his six Cup starts here since that race, Bayne’s best result has been 20th and three of those have ended with him outside of the top 30. He was a one-hit wonder and I just don’t see the point in taking the #21 Ford at a plate race until he can at least get one good finish under his belt. Bayne finished 33rd in this year’s Daytona 500 and ended up 41st at Talladega in May.
David Ragan & David Gilliland – Front Row Motorsports provided excellent fantasy options at restrictor plate tracks in 2013, capped off by their 1-2 finish in the Talladega spring race. However, something happened to this organization in the off-season. I’m not sure what, but their cars have been junk all season long; Ragan and Gilliland have under-performed not just at the restrictor plate tracks but pretty much any course that requires decent horsepower. Ragan is averaging a 34.5 finish at the plate tracks this season while Gilliland is at 38.0. I feel like there’s a lot more “sleeper” picks available for Saturday night, so I wouldn’t even bother taking a chance with the #34 or the #38.
Aric Almirola – I’m an Aric Almirola fan, purely from an underdog standpoint. I like to pick him on some race weekends just in case he surprises and gets a good finish. I think Richard Petty Motorsports has some powerful race cars and I think Almirola has a decent amount of talent. That being said, I wouldn’t pick the #43 at Daytona even if you paid me. Almirola did finish 13th in the 2013 Daytona 500, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. Three of his career starts here at Daytona have ended in DNFs, which is probably one of the worst percentages in the series. Pick at your own risk. Aric finished 39th at Daytona in February but bounced back a 13th-place effort at Talladga in May.
Best Average Finish On Plate Tracks In 2014:
Driver
Average Finish
….
Daytona 500
Talladega
Denny Hamlin
1.5
….
2
1
Greg Biffle
5.0
….
8
2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
8.5
….
7
10
Kevin Harvick
10.0
….
13
7
Landon Cassill
11.5
….
12
11
Austin Dillon
12.0
….
9
15
Casey Mears
12.0
….
10
14
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
13.5
….
1
26
Jimmie Johnson
14.0
….
5
23
A.J. Allmendinger
15.5
….
26
5
Kyle Busch
15.5
….
19
12
Brian Vickers
17.0
….
30
4
Marcos Ambrose
18.5
….
18
19
Paul Menard
19.0
….
32
6
Kasey Kahne
19.5
….
31
8
Ryan Newman
20.0
….
22
18
Brad Keselowski
20.5
….
3
38
Jeff Gordon
21.5
….
4
39
Matt Kenseth
21.5
….
6
37
Joey Logano
21.5
….
11
32
Jamie McMurray
21.5
….
14
29
Clint Bowyer
22.5
….
42
3
Carl Edwards
23.5
….
17
30
Kyle Larson
23.5
….
38
9
Aric Almirola
26.0
….
39
13
Justin Allgaier
27.0
….
27
27
Kurt Busch
27.0
….
21
33
Martin Truex Jr.
30.0
….
43
17
Danica Patrick
31.0
….
40
22
Michael Waltrip
33.0
….
41
25
David Ragan
34.5
….
34
35
Trevor Bayne
37.0
….
33
41
David Gilliland
38.0
….
36
40
Tony Stewart
39.0
….
35
43
Best Average Driver Rating On Plate Tracks In 2014:
Driver
Average Rating
….
Daytona 500
Talladega
Denny Hamlin
118.5
….
113.8
123.2
Greg Biffle
104.6
….
94.1
115.1
Kyle Busch
102.0
….
100.5
103.4
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
101.1
….
133.1
69.0
Jimmie Johnson
100.5
….
101.2
99.8
Joey Logano
97.7
….
104.1
91.3
Kevin Harvick
96.4
….
85.1
107.6
Matt Kenseth
87.9
….
98.2
77.6
Kurt Busch
86.2
….
89.9
82.4
Jeff Gordon
85.9
….
102.7
69.1
Paul Menard
81.9
….
80.0
83.8
Austin Dillon
81.4
….
83.4
79.4
Casey Mears
77.8
….
80.8
74.7
Brian Vickers
76.2
….
70.6
81.8
Kasey Kahne
75.9
….
64.1
87.7
Brad Keselowski
74.9
….
117.1
32.6
A.J. Allmendinger
70.7
….
53.1
88.2
Marcos Ambrose
70.3
….
79.5
61.0
Carl Edwards
69.5
….
87.0
52.0
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
68.8
….
72.0
65.5
Trevor Bayne
68.6
….
59.5
77.6
Landon Cassill
66.1
….
64.6
67.6
Danica Patrick
64.3
….
53.6
74.9
Kyle Larson
63.5
….
32.2
94.8
Aric Almirola
63.1
….
59.8
66.3
Justin Allgaier
57.1
….
60.8
53.4
Martin Truex Jr.
56.3
….
27.3
85.2
Clint Bowyer
54.1
….
41.0
67.2
Jamie McMurray
53.1
….
73.8
32.4
Ryan Newman
53.1
….
60.3
45.8
David Gilliland
51.1
….
41.5
60.6
Michael Waltrip
45.0
….
46.0
43.9
David Ragan
42.6
….
32.2
52.9
Tony Stewart
40.5
….
36.8
44.2
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