New Hampshire Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson is a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win the New Hampshire Camping World RV Sales 301. The odds makers are confident in him because he’s a 5-1 favorite to win. One advantage he has on much of the field is that he recently tested here. An advantage like that shouldn’t be overlooked for the best team in NASCAR. New Hampshire has historically been a great track for him. He’s a three-time winner and has a 9.2 average finish. He’s also been remarkably consistent and has finished in the top ten 71% percent of the time and in the top fifteen 88% percent of the time. In the first annual race of the year at New Hampshire he has 8 consecutive top tens. Last fall Johnson had a strong showing. He finished 4th, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 6th place average running position. Over the final 100 laps of the event he was a driver who consistently ran in the top four. What made his car so good in the race is that it was fast over long runs. Last July he had a really strong car but he started in the back after his qualifying time was disallowed. When the checkered flag waved he finished 6th. In July 2012 he started in 7th and finished 7th. This year Johnson has performed well at the two track I consider similar. At Phoenix he finished 6th and at Richmond he finished 32nd. It’s important to note at Richmond he had a top ten car until he had tire problems. On Sunday he’ll be racing that very chassis once again. When the green flag waves Jimmie Johnson will start in 2nd. This race has been won from that starting position three times. In practice he had a fast car. On Friday he had the best 5 lap, 10 lap and 15 lap average speeds. On Saturday his car remained quick and was good over the long run. In Happy Hour his 10 lap average ranked as the 4th best.

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2. Brad Keselowski – Brad Keselowski has a fast car and will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick for the New Hampshire Camping World RV Sales 301. Some of his competition have called him “The Rabbit” because their trying to keep up with him. Both Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick were impressed with how well he’s rotating through the corners. On the speed charts he’s been near the top. In both practice #2 and Happy Hour he had the best overall speed. Also in Happy Hour he had the best 10 lap average. Over 15 laps his average speed ranked as the second best. On Sunday he’ll be starting in 7th. Recently at New Hampshire he’s been one of the strongest performers. Over the last five races he has the best average finish (5.6), a 9.8 average running position and the 6th best driver rating. Also over this stretch he’s the only driver who finished in the top 11 every race. Last fall he finished 11th but his car was slightly better than his result. Late in the race with 40 laps to go he slid up the track and lost a lot of track position. In July 2013 he started on the pole, led 14 laps, earned the second best driver rating and finished 4th. Also in the race he had a 6th place average running position and ran the third highest total number of fastest laps. In 2012 he had results of 5th and 6th. This season on similar tracks he’s been one of the strongest drivers. At Phoenix he finished 3rd, had a 4th place average running position and earned the 4th best driver rating. At Richmond he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and finished 4th. Also in that race he led 114 laps and if Matt Kenseth didn’t hold him up late he likely would’ve won. On Sunday he’ll be driving that very chassis again. His odds to win are listed at 7-1. One positive attribute Keselowski has on his side is momentum. Over the last seven races he’s scored the most points, has an 8.3 average finish and the third best driver rating.

Recommended Reading – Post Practice Predictions (Another fantasy take), 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Starting Lineup, Pit Stall Assignments, PROS Rankings, Scouting Report

3. Jeff Gordon – Jeff Gordon is always a strong performer at New Hampshire. Over a long duration of time he’s been extremely good here. Since 2006 he has the best average finish, best average running position and best driver rating. His worst finish over this stretch of races came last fall. In that event his car was extremely strong but self-inflicted mistakes took him out of contention. What happened is that on lap 202 while he was leading (led 36 laps) he came in for a pit stop but overshoot his pit box. He then had to back up his car which caused a slow pit stop. That mistake dropped him down to 22nd and over the last 98 laps he rallied up to a 15th place finish. If he didn’t have that mistake he would’ve contended for the win and looked like a lock for a top five. His PROS Rankings for that race ranked as the 3rd best. Last July his race wasn’t incident free but he still finished well. Late in the race due to pit strategy he was running back in the pack and on lap 259 Paul Menard spun him. When the checkered flag waved he finished 10th, had a 9th place average running position and earned the 7th best driver rating. His next six most recent results are 3rd, 6th, 4th, 11th, 6th and 4th. One advantage Jeff Gordon has on much of the competition this week is that he recently tested here. That’s an advantage that shouldn’t be overlooked because testing can be very beneficial towards a driver’s performance. On Sunday Gordon will be driving a brand new chassis that has never been raced. I think it’s safe to assume he likely utilized this chassis in the test. His odds to win are 7-1. In practice Jeff Gordon had a good long run car that rotated well throughout the turn. In practice #2 he had the best 10 lap average and in Happy Hour it ranked as the 7th best.