Watkins Glen Cheez-It 355 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Marcos Ambrose Fantasy Analysis – Marcos Ambrose is heralded by many as the best road course racer in NASCAR and at Watkins Glen he has truly earned that distinction. If you’re looking for a pick that’s close to money in the bank he’s about as good as it gets. Last season he had the dominant car but the circumstances of the race didn’t play to his favor and he eventually got caught up in a late wreck. In the two Watkins Glen races prior to last season he had back to back wins. Over his first five Watkins Glen races he never finished worse than 3rd and had a 2.0 average finish. One attribute you really have to like about Ambrose this week is that he tested here. In practice he was happy with his car and had plenty of speed. This race is either “checkers or wreckers” for him.
Starting Position – 2nd
Track History – Marcos Ambrose really excels at Watkins Glen. The reason for that is his attack the track aggressive driving style. Since 2008 when he made his first start he has a 6.8 average finish, 8.3 average running position and the second best driver rating. Last season he was vying for his 3rd consecutive win but the race didn’t play out favorably for him. It went downhill on lap 59 when Aric Almirola ran into a tire barrier during the pit cycle. At that time Ambrose didn’t complete his final pit stop and others did. As a result of the caution he dropped all the way back to 12th in the running order. While he was back in traffic his car was never the same and it’s speculated that something broke which made him uncompetitive. Prior to being back in traffic there’s no debate he had the best car because he led 51 of the first 59 laps. His race officially went downhill when he wrecked with 6 laps to go. At the time he was running in 10th. When the checkered flag waved he finished 31st, had a 6th place average running position and earned the second best driver rating. In 2012 he had the third best car but snuck into victory lane on the last lap when the track was slick with oil. In that race he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and led 8 laps. In 2011 he got his first Watkins Glen victory. Minus last year’s race at the Glen he’s never finished worse than 3rd.
Similar Track Performances – Marcos Ambrose had a good but by no means great performance at Sonoma in June. He tested prior to the event so it’s shocking he actually didn’t perform better. In the race he finished 8th, had a 10th place average running position and earned the 10th best driver rating. Minus his first start at Sonoma when he had a transmission failure he’s never finished worse than 8th and has a 6.2 average finish.
Odds To Win – 5/1
Chassis Selection – Chassis selection information isn’t available.
Momentum – In the last six races he’s finished 14th or better four times. Over this span of races he’s scored the 12th most points and has a 15.7 average finish.

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2. Kevin Harvick Fantasy Analysis – Kevin Harvick will be one of the drivers to beat on Sunday. In practice his car was very strong over long runs. The trait was also notable about him at the first road course visited this season. On Sunday he’ll be driving that very chassis again. Many of his competitors have pointed their fingers towards him as one of the cars to beat. The reason for that is because his 5 lap average ranked as the best. Watkins Glen has been a pretty good track for him throughout his career and in 2006 he out raced Tony Stewart for the win.
Starting Position – 4th
Track History – Watkins Glen has been a good track for Kevin Harvick. Minus the two races he had problems (2009 and 2007) he’s never had a result outside the top fifteen and has a 9th place average finish. In 2006 he got his first and only road course victory when he out raced Tony Stewart for the win. Last season at the Glen he had a competitive car and when he ran near the front because of pit strategy he was as fast as the front runners. When the checkered flag waved he finished 13th, earned the 13th best driver rating and had a 16th place average running position. In 2012 he had a 15th place average running position and finished 15th.
Similar Track Performances – In June Kevin Harvick arguably had the best car at Sonoma. Over long runs he was the class of the field. In the race he led 23 laps and earned the 7th best driver rating. Unfortunately his race wasn’t incident free and he sustained damage in a wreck with Clint Bowyer. In 2013 at Sonoma he finished 10th.
Odds To Win – 8/1
Chassis Selection – Kevin Harvick will be driving the chassis he piloted at Sonoma earlier this year.
Momentum – This team has had a hard time building up momentum with its hero or zero weekly results. Since Michigan he has four top tens and three results of 20th or worse. Last week at Pocono he finished 2nd. The following week after his last two second place finishes this season he’s come home with results of 17th and 20th.

Recommended Reading – Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #1 Notes, Practice #1 Speeds, Qualifying Results, PROS Rankings, Scouting Report, Who will win at Watkins Glen

3. Brad Keselowski Fantasy Analysis – Brad Keselowski has a strong car at Watkins Glen and will be a contender for the win. Over long runs I expect him to have one of the fastest cars on the track. He’s done lots of testing at various road courses so this team is fully prepared for Sunday’s race. Recently at Watkins Glen Brad Keselowski has been as consistent as they come. The number you need to know about him is “2”. In the last three Watkins Glen races he’s finished second every race. At Sonoma earlier this year he looked lost but I have zero concerns about that heading into the Cheez-It 355.
Starting Position – 9th
Track History – Brad Keselowski has been very successful at Watkins Glen and has been knocking on the door to victory lane. In his first start he finished 20th but since then the Blue Deuce has finished in 2nd every race. Over his last three runner-up finishes he has the 3rd best driver rating, a 6th place average running position and has led 39 laps. In last season’s race he had a solid afternoon even though it wasn’t incident free. On lap 14 while he was running in 7th he spun. When he got back up to speed again he was back in 22nd. The spin opened up the pit strategy door for him which is a large part of how he got to be close to the front at the end. Also in the race last season he earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 10th place average running position. In his 2nd place finish in 2012 he had a solid chance of winning but Marcos Ambrose got wilder than him on the slick surface and raced his way to victory lane. In that race he had a 3rd place average running position, led 37 laps and earned the second best driver rating. What makes his 2011 2nd place finish notable is that he had a broken ankle.
Similar Track Performances – In June at Sonoma this team was completely lost and missed the setup. I can’t stress how bad they were. In the race he finished 22nd, earned the 28th best driver rating and had a 30th place average running position.
Odds To Win – 7/1
Chassis Selection – This week he’s driving his Dover chassis that finished 2nd in June.
Momentum – Since Dover he has five finishes between 1st and 3rd and four results between 12th and 23rd. Also over this span of races he’s scored the 2nd most points and is the only driver with five top fives.