Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Kevin Harvick Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Analysis – Kevin Harvick is a good fantasy NASCAR pick for the Richmond Federated Auto Parts 400. In Happy Hour Brad Keselowski said that Harvick had the car to beat so I’ll believe him. In terms of pure speed he certainly had it. Both his 10 lap average and 15 lap averages ranked as the best. Another attribute I like about him is that he really focused on being good over long runs. Being good over long runs will be key in this race and will separate the contenders from the pretenders. Also during Happy Hour his crew chief told him he ran good lap times. This spring in Happy Hour Joey Logano had the best 10 lap average and he went on to win the race so that should be a good omen. In practice #1 his ten lap average ranked as the 6th best. This season on shorter flat tracks he’s been one of the best in the series. Now that he’s no longer testing we’ll get to see what he’s really got.
Starting Position – 4th
Track History – Richmond has been a very good track for Kevin Harvick. He’s a three-time champion who’s finished in the top twelve 74% percent of the time. This spring at Rihmond due to his Chase situation he had an R&D race and tried things he otherwise wouldn’t have done. In April the #4 Chevrolet performed well. Through the first half of the race he consistently ran in the top ten. In the second half of the race his car dropped off a little and he wasn’t as strong. When the checkered flag waved he finished 11th, had a 5th place average running position, earned the 5th best driver rating and led 23 laps. Last fall Harvick had one of the strongest cars but finished 11th. I would give that result an asterisk mark because he was a driver who got burned by a caution during the pit cycle with 58 laps to go. Prior to the pit cycle caution he was running in 2nd hot on Clint Bowyer’s heels for the lead. In spring 2013 “Mr. Where Did He Come From” drove the 29 car to victory lane. In that race he only led 3 laps but they came when it counted. Also in that race he had the 5th best driver rating and a 9th place average running position. In fall 2012 Harvick finished 10th.
Similar Track Performances – This season on similar track Kevin Harvick has performed very well. I consider Phoenix a reverse Richmond and at that venue he put on a display of domination in March. In that race he unquestionably had the best car. He went to victory lane, led 224 laps and came up just .1 short of having a perfect driver rating. At New Hampshire he was poised to finish in the top five but he didn’t have enough fuel to go the distance.
Odds To Win – 6/1
Chassis Selection – No chassis selection information has been reported
Momentum – Harvick had the dominate car last week but got denied the win after a late wreck. In the five races prior to that he had a 6.0 average finish.

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2. Brad Keselowski Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Analysis – Brad Keselowski is a driver who you can be confident making your fantasy NASCAR pick for the Richmond Federated Auto Parts 400. This season in the three combined races on shorter flat tracks he’s been a standout performer. In these races he has a 2.7 average finish, 3.3 average running position, scored the most points and has the best driver rating by a wide margin. Also at these tracks he’s the only driver who’s finished in the top five every race. In practice this weekend he performed well but he thinks he’s missing something from the spring race. That should be scary for the competition if he finds it because in Happy Hour both his ten lap and fifteen lap averages ranked as the second best.
Starting Position – 1st
Track History – Brad Keselowski has been one of the strongest drivers at Richmond recently. This spring his car showed exceptional speed and he was a contender for the win. His downfall in the race is that at the end Kenseth slowed him down and made his car super wide. That grouped up the front pack and as a result he slide back to a 4th place finish. Also in the race it should be noted he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 114 laps. In the race his strength was being really good on short runs. Last fall he had a solid performance and came home with a 17th place finish. That result isn’t very reflective of his level of performance because his car had top five potential. His downfall in the race was when a caution came out during a round of green flag pit stops with 58 laps to go. That caution dropped him deep in the field and prior to it coming up he was running in the top five. In that event he had a 4th place average running position and led 142 laps. In spring 2013 he was very unlucky and had multiple incidents in the race which led to his 35th place result. If he had a problem free race I think he could’ve finished in the top ten. In 2012 Keselowski had results of 7th and 9th.
Similar Track Performances – This season at the two tracks I consider similar to Richmond he’s been fast. At New Hampshire he absolutely crushed field en route in victory lane. In that event he earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 138 laps. His strength in that race was his ability to cut through the corners better than anyone. At Phoenix this spring he finished 3rd, had a 4th place average running position and earned the 4th best driver rating.
Odds To Win – 6/1
Chassis Selection – On Saturday Brad Keselowski will be driving the chassis he drove to victory lane at Kentucky earlier this year.
Momentum – This team is lacking consistency right now. In the last five races he has two top tens but three results of 23rd or worse.

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Recommended Reading – Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Richmond Speed Cheat Sheet, Richmond Starting Lineup, Richmond Happy Hour Notes, Richmond Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #1 Notes, Practice #1 Speeds, Richmond Scouting Report, Richmond PROS Rankings

3. Jeff Gordon Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Analysis – Jeff Gordon has a great car this weekend. I think practice #1 will be the most similar to race conditions and in that session he got a good feel for his car and ran a lot of laps in race trim. He ran 118 laps which is usually a sign it’s driving to his liking or otherwise he would’ve spent more time in the garage. Also in practice #1 he had the best 10 lap average by a healthy margin. Recently at Richmond Jeff Gordon has struggled at times but still managed to sneak in a good finish at the end. Earlier this year at Richmond Jeff Gordon had one of the best cars, look for that to be the case again.
Starting Position – 2nd
Track History – Richmond has been a great track for Jeff Gordon. Since 2007 minus a wreck in 2011 he has a 6.5 average finish, 10.2 average running position, led 777 laps and has the best driver rating. This spring he had a very strong car that was good over long runs. He started in 25th and it only took him 103 laps to take the lead. In April when the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 173 laps. Last fall Jeff Gordon started off the race strong but he faded over long runs. In the race he started on the pole and led the first 49 laps. After that things went downhill for him. His car was tight and by lap 186 he was back in 15th. On lap 224 Jeff Gordon was in 21st place and had to come in for an unexpected pit stop. He had a loose right front and as a result he dropped two laps down. Shortly after that he raced his way back to being one lap down and moved into the “Lucky Dog” position. On lap 266 the caution came out and Jeff Gordon got back on the lead lap. Later in the race he was a driver who benefited from the caution that came out during a round of green flag pit stops. That got him a lot of track position and it’s the only reason he competed for a top ten at the end. When the checkered flag waved he finished 8th. In spring 2013 at Richmond he started in 3rd and finished 11th. That’s sounds good but in the race he really struggled. When the green flag waved he dropped in the running order like a rock. By lap 100 he was all the way back to about 25th. He then slowly worked his way to the front. In fall 2012 at Richmond Jeff Gordon finished 2nd. In that race his car was absolute junk. If it wasn’t for rain delays that gave his team time to come up with a game plan he would’ve finished very poorly. After the rain stopped they found something and it appeared they had one of the best cars. At Richmond Jeff Gordon has two wins but it should be noted his most recent was in 2000.
Similar Track Performances – This season on similar track Jeff Gordon has performed well. He finished 5th at Phoenix and at New Hampshire he had top five potential but didn’t have enough fuel to go the distance.
Odds To Win – 6/1
Chassis Selection – On Saturday night Jeff Gordon will be driving the same chassis he drove earlier this year at Richmond.
Momentum – This team has been good every week but they’ve been finding trouble lately. In three of the last four weeks he’s finished 16th or worse.