Charlotte 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Bank of America 500
Plenty of Drama Already
We’re at Charlotte Motor Speedway this weekend, and there are a few teams that absolutely need a good run on Saturday night–namely Brad Keselowski, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Jimmie Johnson. I’m already loving this new Chase format. Kyle Busch continued his hot streak on Thursday and won the pole for this year’s Bank of America 500. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. There were then two practice sessions ran on Friday afternoon, the first of which I would consider basically worthless. Happy Hour was ran later in the day, but the point still remains that this week’s race is at night. Anyway, here are the speed charts if you want to check them out: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also, Ryan put together some awesome notes this week for each session: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Bank of America 500:Portions of this content are hidden. To view this ifantasyrace advantage content log in or join the site
11. Matt Kenseth – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th (change: none)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
It’s been a typical Matt Kenseth weekend: we haven’t heard much about him, he’s not putting up any blazing speeds on the charts, and most are overlooking him. Last year, Kenseth would probably go out on race day and challenge for the win. However, this is 2014, and pretty much all we can count on Matt for is a top 10 result. The Gibbs cars all seem to have decent speed this weekend, and Kenseth usually looks the slowest because he doesn’t show his hand in practice. The #20 Toyota was 15th in terms of ten-lap average during the final practice session on Friday. Kenseth is a two-time winner at Charlotte Motor Speedway and he finished 3rd in this year’s Coca-Cola 600. Qualifying hasn’t really been this team’s strong point this season, but this is a pretty long race on Saturday night so I’m not too worried about Kenseth starting mid-pack. He has ended up 13th or better in six of the last nine Sprint Cup events and should make it seven of the last ten after this year’s Bank of America 500.
12. Jamie McMurray – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 13th (change: +1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
There are plenty of reasons to like Jamie McMurray this weekend and have him as a #1 sleeper pick. Despite finishing in the 20s yet again last weekend at Kansas, Jamie did have a bunch of speed in his car and for a while there I thought he might end up with a solid top 5 (if not a win). He didn’t come anywhere close, however, and that’s why we call them sleepers. Now, looking on to Charlotte, we once again have a lot to like with McMurray: he finished 5th in this year’s Coca-Cola 600, he had the 9th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour, and he’s a two-time race winner at this track–the most recent being this event in 2010 (I’m not counting the non-points paying races, although it should be mentioned that Jamie Mac won this year’s All Star Race). I’d like McMurray a little bit more if he qualified better this weekend but starting in 18th isn’t the end of the world. I fully expect the #1 team to challenge for a top 10 finish in this year’s Bank of America 500.
13. Kyle Larson – Starts 24th – Yahoo! C Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 3rd (change: -6)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
If you would look at this weekend without taking any recent results into account, most people would probably have Kyle Larson as an 18th-23rd place car going into the Bank of America 500. He qualified mid-pack on Thursday, had the 19th-best lap in Practice #2, and ended up 30th on the speed chart in Happy Hour with the 17th-best ten-lap average (out of 28 teams). Also, in this year’s Coca-Cola 600, Kyle finished 18th after starting 25th. Yeah, not that great. However, I’m not about to give up that quickly on this rookie phenom that has the 2nd-best average finish (5.3) over the last six Cup races and who has finished 2nd or 3rd in three of the last four. The good news for this team is that we race at night, and at 500 miles, they have a pretty long race to adjust on their race car. I don’t think we’re going to get another top 5 run out of Larson on Saturday night, but then again it wouldn’t surprise me. He should challenge for his 16th top 10 of the 2014 season this weekend.
14. Brian Vickers – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: NR (change: N/A)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
As far as sleeper picks go, Brian Vickers should be a pretty popular one here at Charlotte on Saturday night. He ran really well here in this year’s Coca-Cola 600, posting a driver rating of 101.9 and a 6th-place finish after qualifying 16th. He’ll have less cars to pass this weekend to get to that spot, as the #55 Toyota wound up 8th in qualifying on Thursday. In both practice sessions on Friday, Brian was very confident when it came to how good his car is and the speeds backed him up: Vickers had the 2nd-best ten-lap average in Practice #2 and was 7th on that chart in Happy Hour. Obviously there’s quite a bit of risk here with picking the #55 on Saturday night–especially considering Brian’s career average finish at Charlotte is 21.9– but that’s what you get when you have a sleeper pick and a guy like Brian Vickers. On a positive note, he has finished 15th or better in five of the last six Sprint Cup races, including the 10th-place finishes at New Hampshire and at Kansas last weekend.
15. Austin Dillon – Starts 20th – Yahoo! C Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 16th (change: +1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Believe it or not, Austin Dillon’s 8th-place finish at Kansas last weekend has been his best result this season at a track not named Daytona. That also makes it three out of the last four races in which the #3 Chevrolet has wound up 16th or better, and I think we’re going to see a similar result this Saturday night at Charlotte. I said earlier this year that the rookies will be even better fantasy options once we get to the second trips at certain tracks, and that’s pretty much what is happening. Dillon ran 16th in this year’s Coca-Cola 600 despite starting all the way back in 32nd. This week, Austin will roll off the grid in 20th, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him sneak into the top 10 at some point during the Bank of America 500. Dillon had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour on Friday and the 13th-fastest overall lap. He’s using chassis no. 481, which is the same one that Austin utilized at Indianapolis this year, finishing 10th.
The Next Ten:
16. Tony Stewart
17. Kurt Busch
18. Paul Menard
19. Martin Truex, Jr.
20. Kasey Kahne
21. Clint Bowyer
22. Greg Biffle
23. Aric Almirola
24. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
25. Danica Patrick
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Pre-Practice Rank: 11th (change: none)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 13th (change: +1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 3rd (change: -6)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: NR (change: N/A)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 16th (change: +1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
17. Kurt Busch
18. Paul Menard
19. Martin Truex, Jr.
20. Kasey Kahne
21. Clint Bowyer
22. Greg Biffle
23. Aric Almirola
24. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
25. Danica Patrick