Talladega 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Geico 500

Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2012 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
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Now or Never

Talladega Superspeedway has always been an enigma for fantasy racers. With this new Chase format, however, the stakes are higher than ever this weekend, and it will be interesting to see how the Geico 500 unfolds on Sunday. Typically this event is a little more tame than the normal restrictor plate race, but we very well could see tempers flare and a wreck-fest on Sunday. There were two practice sessions this weekend, and here are the results: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, here’s the notes for each: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Brian Vickers won the pole for this weekend’s Geico 500 and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.

I always approach restrictor plate races a different way, so I’m offering many options this weekend. In my opinion, you can either pick the favorites, the ones with momentum, or the underdogs. Of course, the best approach to picking is probably to take a combination of those, but I’ll leave that up to you. At the bottom of this post you will find the average finish of most drivers on plate tracks this season as well as their average driver ratings. Also, I have ranked my top 30 for the race on Sunday and those can be found down there as well. Good luck!

The Favorites

Denny Hamlin – Occasionally, certain drivers just have a very good year on the restrictor plate tracks. For example, in 2012 Matt Kenseth had top 5 finishes in all four plate races–something I personally thought was impossible. This year, it looks as though the good luck bug has shifted over to Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin. As you probably recall, the #11 Toyota was dominant during Speedweeks in February and finished 2nd in the Daytona 500. Hamlin then went on to win at the first Talladega race of 2014 and ended up 6th at Daytona 2. Not too shabby. Obviously Denny leads the series in average finish on the plate tracks this year (3.0) and he also has the best average driver rating on them in 2014 (112.9). Momentum-wise, Hamlin entered the Geico 500 weekend with back-to-back top 10s at Kansas and Charlotte, which his something he’s only done three times this season. I can never trust the #11 team when I pick them but I do think Hamlin will be a good fantasy pick this weekend at Talladega.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – If Junior wants to challenge for the championship this season, he’s probably going to need to win on Sunday. It’s that simple. Junior knows that, I know that, you know that. Everyone knows it, and it wouldn’t be crazy to see it happen considering he’s a five-time winner here at Talladega Superspeedway. Earnhardt mentioned that he plans to run near the front during Sunday’s Geico 500 (I like that) and that his car is good except when someone is beside him (I don’t like that). After winning this year’s Daytona 500, Junior has finished 26th and 14th in the next two plate races, although he kind of stayed near the back of the pack in both of those events. Personally, I think the better strategy is to run up front, but I understand the appeal of hanging out in the back. There’s going to be a lot of people with Earnhardt, Jr. on their rosters this weekend, so it gives you the opportunity to make up a lot of points by not picking him if he wrecks. However, that goes both ways and you could lose a lot of points if he wins.

Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick said that his goal this weekend is to win and hopefully eliminate some of the major competition from the Chase, and I am glad to hear that. Joey Logano is already looking toward next week and is probably going to play this race pretty conservatively. Not only does Harvick have the car that can get to the front, but he is also one of the best drivers at doing so. There was a time when “Happy” was considered one of the best races at this track type, you know. The #4 team came home 13th in this year’s Daytona 500 and ended up 7th in the first Talladega race. Harvick disappointed fantasy owners quite a bit with his 39th-place finish at Daytona 2, though. What I like most about him this weekend is that he has just two DNFs in 27 career starts here at Talladega. This #4 team has some momentum with their win at Charlotte last weekend, and I woudn’t bet against Harvick getting a win when he’s so determined to do so this weekend at Talladega.

Those With Momentum

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Sleeper Picks

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Avoidance Factor

Tony Stewart – I don’t know, I guess it’s not Tony Stewart’s year. Somehow this previous Cup champion is struggling to even come close to top 10 finishes (the last time Smoke accomplished that was at New Hampshire in mid-JULY) despite the fact that Stewart-Haas Racing consistently puts out the best car week in and week out (I’m, of course, talking about the #4 Chevrolet driven by Kevin Harvick). Looking at the plate races ran in 2014 thus far, I’m not sure you could get much worse than what Tony Stewart has accomplished. He ended up 35th in this year’s Daytona 500, 43rd at the first Talladega race, and 40th at Daytona 2. That averages out to a finish of 39.3. I’m honestly not sure you could get much worse if you tried. Stewart also has the second-worse average driver rating over those three races (42.9, barely above Michael Waltrip’s 42.3).

David Ragan and David Gilliland – Yeah, these guys had a great season on the restrictor plate tracks in 2013. However, this is 2014, and Front Row Motorsports isn’t the same. On a weekly basis, it’s not that rare to see Ragan or Gilliland struggling to crack the top 30. That’s pathetic to be honest with you. Looking at the plate races this year, Ragan has an average finish of 30.3 while Gilliland comes in at 37.0. Yeah, not that good, and only Trevor Bayne and Tony Stewart rank worse. As I said before with Denny Hamlin, sometimes drivers are just hot on the plate tracks for a certain year. Well, the same can be said about guys who just don’t have it on that track type for a season. I’m not going to sit here and tell you not to pick Ragan or Gilliland on Sunday (it is a plate race after all) but I probably won’t touch the #34 or #38 in fantasy on Sunday.

Trevor Bayne – Trevor Bayne is still the most overrated Cup racer at plate tracks ever. Ever. I’m just going to copy and paste what I wrote about him in my Post Practice Daytona 2 article: “If there’s anyone out there still clinging on to Trevor Bayne’s Daytona victory in 2011, I’m not sure I can help you. In his six Cup starts here since that race, Bayne’s best result has been 20th and three of those have ended with him outside of the top 30. He was a one-hit wonder and I just don’t see the point in taking the #21 Ford at a plate race until he can at least get one good finish under his belt. Bayne finished 33rd in this year’s Daytona 500 and ended up 41st at Talladega in May.” To update that a little more, Trevor ended up 38th in the July Daytona race this year. Yeah, I wouldn’t touch him either–fools gold to the max.

Best Average Finish of Plate Tracks in 2014

Rank Driver Average Finish Daytona 500 Talladega  Daytona 2
1. Denny Hamlin 3.0 2 1 6
2. Casey Mears 9.3 10 14 4
3. Austin Dillon 9.7 9 15 5
4. Brian Vickers 12.0 30 4 2
5. Greg Biffle 13.0 8 2 29
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 13.7 1 26 14
7. Marcos Ambrose 15.7 18 19 10
8. Aric Almirola 17.7 39 13 1
9. Clint Bowyer 18.0 42 3 9
10. Landon Cassill 18.0 12 11 31
11. Paul Menard 18.0 32 6 16
12. Jeff Gordon 18.3 4 39 12
13. Kurt Busch 19.0 21 33 3
14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 19.3 7 10 41
15. Kyle Busch 19.7 19 12 28
16. Kevin Harvick 19.7 13 7 39
17. Brad Keselowski 19.7 3 38 18
18. Joey Logano 20.0 11 32 17
19. Matt Kenseth 21.0 6 37 20
20. Ryan Newman 21.3 22 18 24
21. Kasey Kahne 22.0 31 8 27
22. Michael Waltrip 22.0 25 19
23. Jimmie Johnson 23.3 5 23 42
24. Danica Patrick 23.3 40 22 8
25. Jamie McMurray 24.3 14 29 30
26. A.J. Allmendinger 24.7 26 5 43
27. Martin Truex Jr. 25.0 43 17 15
28. Justin Allgaier 26.3 27 27 25
29. Kyle Larson 27.7 38 9 36
30. Carl Edwards 28.0 17 30 37
31. David Ragan 30.3 34 35 22
32. David Gilliland 37.0 36 40 35
33. Trevor Bayne 37.3 33 41 38
34. Tony Stewart 39.3 35 43 40

Best Average Driver Ratings on Plate Tracks in 2014

Rank Driver Average Driver Rating Daytona 500 Talladega Daytona 2
1. Denny Hamlin 112.9 113.8 123.2 101.8
2. Greg Biffle 105.7 94.1 115.1 108.0
3. Kurt Busch 97.7 89.9 82.4 120.8
4. Joey Logano 96.9 104.1 91.3 95.4
5. Kyle Busch 94.4 100.5 103.4 79.3
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 86.3 133.1 69.0 56.9
7. Jimmie Johnson 83.1 101.2 99.8 48.3
8. Kasey Kahne 82.9 64.1 87.7 96.9
9. Austin Dillon 82.3 83.4 79.4 84.1
10. Casey Mears 81.3 80.8 74.7 88.5
11. Matt Kenseth 80.9 98.2 77.6 67.0
12. Jeff Gordon 80.5 102.7 69.1 69.8
13. Paul Menard 79.3 80.0 83.8 74.1
14. Aric Almirola 79.2 59.8 66.3 111.4
15. Brian Vickers 75.7 70.6 81.8 74.6
16. Kevin Harvick 74.9 85.1 107.6 32.0
17. Landon Cassill 73.6 64.6 67.6 88.5
18. Marcos Ambrose 72.3 79.5 61.0 76.4
19. Danica Patrick 71.8 53.6 74.9 86.8
20. Brad Keselowski 68.2 117.1 32.6 54.8
21. Clint Bowyer 65.1 41.0 67.2 87.2
22. Jamie McMurray 65.0 73.8 32.4 88.7
23. David Gilliland 64.1 41.5 60.6 90.2
24. Justin Allgaier 62.2 60.8 53.4 72.5
25. Martin Truex Jr. 58.5 27.3 85.2 63.0
26. Carl Edwards 58.5 87.0 52.0 36.4
27. David Ragan 57.2 32.2 52.9 86.5
28. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 57.2 72.0 65.5 34.1
29. Trevor Bayne 57.0 59.5 77.6 33.8
30. A.J. Allmendinger 56.9 53.1 88.2 29.4
31. Ryan Newman 55.1 60.3 45.8 59.2
32. Kyle Larson 51.5 32.2 94.8 27.4
33. Tony Stewart 42.9 36.8 44.2 47.7
34. Michael Waltrip 42.3 43.9 40.6

My Final Top 30 for the Geico 500

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