Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Jimmie Johnson Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Jimmie Johnson is eliminated from the Chase but that doesn’t make him a bad fantasy pick for the Martinsville Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500. He’s as close to money in the bank as you can get at NASCAR’s oldest track. One advantage he has heading into the race is that NASCAR is using a new tire and he recently tested here with his Hendrick teammates. I think not being in the Chase will be good for Johnson because it will allow him to take risks and go all out for the win. While he was in the playoffs it was very evident he was points racing which isn’t good for fantasy racers. In practice Jimmie Johnson looked strong. In Happy Hour he was pleased with his handling and had the best 15 lap average (25 minutes through practice). Also in Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the second best. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the 5th best.
Starting Position – 7th
Track History – At Martinsville Jimmie Johnson is the premiere driver in the series. He’s raced here 25 times and has 8 wins and a 5.2 average finish. In nearly every statistical category you look at you’ll find him near the top of the list. Minus his first start in 2002 then he’s never finished worse than 12th. When you examine the last four Martinsville races you’ll see how dominate he is. Since October 2012 he has the best driver rating by a wide margin, a 2.5 average running position, 2.3 average finish and has led 958 laps. This spring at Martinsville Johnson had a great car and crossed the finish line in 2nd after leading 296 laps. His problem in the race was that he was up against Kurt Busch at the end and his determination to get back to victory lane was second to none. Last fall at Martinsville Johnson also had a good car but he drove somewhat of a conservative race because of his point’s situation (finished 5th). In the two Martinsville races prior to that event he had back to back wins.
Odds To Win – 5/1
Momentum – Johnson has fallen on hard times recently and over the last three races he has a 27.0 average result. In the seven races prior to the last three he had a 6.4 average finish.
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Jimmie Johnson will be driving a new chassis.

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2. Jeff Gordon Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Jeff Gordon will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Martinsville Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500. Traditionally at Martinsville the strength of his car has been long runs. Over the duration of a run nobody is usually faster than him near the end. There is a tradeoff to that strength however. Over short runs his car has been suspect against the other elite drivers. Being good over long runs is how he was able to go to victory lane last fall for the first time since 2005. Recently Jeff Gordon tested at Martinsville and following the test he seemed upbeat how it went. One intangible you have to like about Gordon this week is how strong he’s run over the last few months when he’s avoided trouble as you’ll read below. Look for this 8-time Martinsville champion to be very tough to beat on Sunday. Jeff Gordon has been fast all weekend long. In all three practice sessions he recorded the best 10 lap average. In Happy Hour Jeff Gordon’s car looked really good rotating through the center of the corner.
Starting Position – 13th
Track History – Jeff Gordon is a Martinsville master. He’s an 8-time champion and has led nearly 3,600 laps. In 43 Martinsville races he has a 7.0 average finish and has had a result in the top five 63% percent of the time and a result in the top ten 79% percent of the time. He’s also been an extraordinarily safe option and has had a result in the top fifteen 91% percent of the time. This spring at Martinsville Jeff Gordon had a good car but his race wasn’t incident free. He ran among the front runners early but then he pitted to get out of sync with the competition and while he was back in traffic he ran into the back of another car and radioed his team and said he killed his car. Before he pitted to get out of sequence he clearly had a top five car. Last fall at the “Paper Clip” Jeff Gordon returned to victory lane and tied Johnson for the most wins by an active driver. In that event the race came down to a long run and he was able to maneuver better than Kenseth in traffic and that’s how he got around him for the win. Also in the event last fall he earned the 2nd best driver rating and led 78 laps. In spring 2013 Gordon looked like a serious threat to win but short runs late in the event weren’t favorable to him and when the checkered flag waved he finished 3rd. If the race would’ve ended with a long green flag run then I think he would’ve won. In October 2012 Gordon was impressive. He started in 11th and drove up to 2nd in the first 30 laps. In the event he led 92 laps and had a fifth place average running position. If it wasn’t for a late caution then it would’ve come down to him versus Jimmie Johnson at the end. When the checkered flag waved he finished 7th and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In April 2012 he had the best car hands down and over a long run he reeled in Jimmie Johnson at the end but his undoing was a late caution and Clint Bowyer’s “Hail Mary” during a late restart.
Odds To Win – 4/1
Momentum – Jeff Gordon obviously tanked his Talladega performance opting for safety. From a performance standpoint since Michigan #2 when he’s avoided trouble he’s finished in either 1st or 2nd.
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Jeff Gordon will be driving a new chassis.

Further Recommended Reading – Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Qualifying Results, Pit Stall Assignments, PROS Rankings, Scouting Report

3. Brad Keselowski Fantasy NASCAR Spin – The last time a Ford went to victory lane at Martinsville was in 2002. I think Keselowski is the Blue Oval name brands best shot to returning to the winners circle. At Martinsville minus his wreck this spring he has a 10.4 average finish and a 13.6 average running position. Prior to his wreck this spring he had four consecutive top ten finishes. A typical strength of his here is being good over long runs. In some recent races his car has been on par with some of the best over long runs. After qualifying Keselowski said that he thinks he has a good long run car. On Saturday in the practice sessions he backed up his statement. In both Happy Hour and Practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the 3^rd best. In Happy Hour his 15 lap average ranked as the second best behind Johnson.
Starting Position – 6th
Track History – Brad Keselowski has been a good driver at Martinsville. This spring he finished 38th after being involved in an accident on pit road. I wouldn’t let that scare you away because he has good fantasy potential. In the four Martinsville races prior to the event this spring he had a 6.3 average finish and a 9.8 average running position. Over that same stretch of races his average finish is tied with Jeff Gordon and everybody recognizes him as one of the best here. Last fall at Martinsville he had his best result. He finished 4th and had the 7th best driver rating. Also in the race he started in 11th and had an 11th place average running position. In spring 2013 he had a great car. He finished 6th, had an 8th place average running position and earned the 8th best driver rating. In fall 2012 Keselowski had a teen’s car at best and his 6th place finish deserves an asterisk mark. In that race he started 32nd and had a 14th place average running position. If it wasn’t for a late pit stop where he used strategy he likely would’ve finished in the mid-teens. In spring 2012 he had a top five car but he was a minor victim in the Clint Bowyer dive bomb. In that race his car was extremely strong over long runs. At some points in the race he was quicker than both Johnson and Gordon.
Odds To Win – 6/1
Momentum – Since Richmond minus Kansas he has three wins and a 4.7 average finish.
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Brad Keselowski will be using his 35th place Watkins Glen chassis.