AJ Allmendinger 2015 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
AJ Allmendinger 2014 Stats: Points Finish 13th, 0 Poles, 1 Win, 2 Top Fives, 5 Top Tens, Average Running Position 21.1, Average Finish 20.2, Laps Led 68, Driver Rating 70.8
Strengths – AJ Allmendinger is an elite road course racer. He also performs well at shorter flat tracks (Richmond, Phoenix and New Hampshire) and Martinsville.
Weaknesses – Restrictor plate tracks and big flat tracks have been the most unfriendly to him. This team also lacks speed at high-speed intermediate tracks which make up the core of the schedule.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Moderate > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Moderate
Intermediate tracks are not an area of strength for AJ Allmendinger and his team. On this track type last season he scored the 24th most points and had a 21.0 average finish. In only 1 of the 17 races at these venues did he finish in the top ten. His one top ten was at Auto Club Speedway and we all know how the end of that race played out. Also in only 7 of these races did he finish in the top twenty.
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Flat Track Fantasy Value – Moderate
The big flat tracks haven’t been kind to Allmendinger. At Pocono since August 2010 he has a best result of 19th and a 27.5 average finish. In four of the last five Pocono races he’s finished in the low thirties. At Indy he’s been slightly better but that’s not saying much. Excluding his first start there he’s finished between 16th and 22nd every race.
At the small flat tracks his fantasy value is higher. Last year at New Hampshire he finished 13th and 18th. In four of his last seven New Hampshire races he’s come home with a result between 10th and 13th. At Phoenix in 2014 he had results of 16th and 26th. In his six starts on the current configuration at Phoenix he’s finished in the top 11 half the time.
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Short Track Fantasy Value – Moderate
Short tracks are skill tracks and AJ Allmendinger can perform well on this track type. I would describe his fantasy value on this track type as a “High-moderate”. Last year on short tracks he scored the 10th most points, had four top fifteens and had a 14.7 average finish.
Between the three short tracks Richmond is arguably his best. Last fall at that venue he finished 23rd. In the 2014 spring race he finished 6th. Between spring 2014 and fall 2010 he had an 11.0 average finish.
Martinsville has also been friendly to him. Since fall 2010 he has a 12.4 average finish. Last year at Martinsville he had results of 9th and 11th.
At Bristol he’s had some OK performances recently but he’s never finished in the top ten. In the last three night races he’s finished between 12th and 14th. In the spring races he hasn’t performed nearly as well.
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – Moderate
Like most drivers AJ Allmendinger is capable of coming home with a good finish on this track type. His track record indicates it doesn’t happen too often though. The last few Daytona races have been brutal to him including a 43rd place finish in July. In the last four Daytona races he has a 34.7 average finish. In his career at that venue he has three top elevens but seven results of 26th or worse.
Talladega has been a little more friendly to him. Last year at that Wild Card track he had results of 5th and 23rd. In three of the last five Talladega races he’s finished in the top fifteen.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Elite
AJ Allmendinger is an elite performer at road courses. Last season on this track type he was fast at both venues. At Watkins Glen in 2014 he won his first race holding off Marcos Ambrose. In his career at “The Glen” he’s finished in the top thirteen every race and has a 7.8 average finish.
Last year at Sonoma AJ Allmendinger had a really strong showing. In that event he started in 2nd, led 35 laps but finished 37th after having a run-in with Dale Earnhardt Jr. In his four Sonoma races prior to that event he finished between 7th and 13th every race.
