2014 Stats: Points Finish 7th, 2 Poles, 0 Wins, 13 Top Fives, 22 Top Tens, Average Running Position 13.3, Average Finish 13.2, Laps Led 529, Driver Rating 93.1
Strengths – Matt Kenseth is a strong performer at many different track types. From a career perspective intermediate tracks have always been his “bread and butter”. Another strength of his that applies across the different track types is that he’s a consistent driver who takes care of his equipment. That’s important because DNF results are devastating to fantasy racers.
Weaknesses – Road courses have never been a strength and likely never will be.
Track Type Fantasy ValueKey=Elite > High > Moderate >Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Matt Kenseth is an elite performer at intermediate tracks. He didn’t win on this track type last season but I wouldn’t attribute the blame to him. He knows how to get the job done at these venues. JGR was down on speed against the elite teams last year and that was his downfall. In 2013 on this track type he went to victory lane 5 times and scored the second most points. In his career on this track type he’s won at every venue except Atlanta.
In 2014 even in a down year he was a stellar performer on this track type. Last season he scored the 4th most points, had a 10.4 average finish and was tied for finishing in the top ten the most. As long as he avoided trouble he was a lock for a top 13 or better result.
In 2015 I would look for Matt Kenseth to get back to victory lane on this track type.
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Flat Track Fantasy Value – High
If it wasn’t for Pocono Matt Kenseth would have elite fantasy value on flat tracks. Last season on this track type minus the Pocono races he had an 8.8 average finish and scored the 4th most points.
The Tricky Triangle has gotten the best of him recently. Last season at that venue he had results of 25th and 38th. In the last four Pocono races he has a 27.5 average finish. Indy is the other big flat track and he’s run well there in his career. In 3 of the last 4 races at that crown jewel event he’s finished in the top five. Last season he finished 4th.
At New Hampshire Matt Kenseth has really benefited from his change of employer. In his #20 Toyota he’s run well in every event at that 1.0 mile oval. Last fall he had top five potential but had problems late which resulted in his 21st place finish. Prior to that event he had three consecutive top tens which includes a win in fall 2013. At Phoenix he’s been sort of an “on & off again performer”. Last year he had results of 3rd and 12th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Last season on short tracks Matt Kenseth was very good. In the six races on this track type he tied for scoring the 3rd most points and finished in the top ten four times. If he would’ve finished how he performed at Richmond in the fall instead of finishing 41st after getting into the wall he would’ve been in contention for being the top scorer on this track type.
His best short track is Bristol. He’s won there three-times and was in contention to win both races last year. In August 2014 he finished 3rd and in March 2014 he was good enough to win but finished a misleading 13th. In 2013 at Thunder Valley he won in August and finished 35th in the spring after wrecking while running in second.
At Richmond he’s performed well recently. Last fall he had top ten potential but got into the wall. Prior to that event he had four straight top 7 finishes. In spring 2014 his car was fast over long runs and he could’ve potentially won but he was at a tire disadvantage at the end.
Since joining JGR Matt Kenseth has become a contender at Martinsville. At that venue he currently has three straight top six results. Last year he finished 6th in both events. In fall 2013 he finished 2nd and led 202 laps.
Check out our Matt Kenseth Fantasy NASCAR Portal page
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
When it comes to managing the draft Matt Kenseth is an elite talent. I like him at both venues. At Daytona he hasn’t had the best results recently but he’s looked very competitive. Last year he had results of 6th and 20th. In 2013 he had top ten potential in the summer (wrecked, finished 33rd) and arguably had the best car in the Daytona 500 (engine problems while leading, finished 37th).
At Talladega last season he finished 2nd in the fall and 37th in the spring. In 2012 Kenseth earned his only victory at this “Wild Card” venue.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Medium
I’m probably underestimating Matt Kenseth’s fantasy value on this track type because he’s certainly not terrible. If you pick him a teen’s finish should likely be expected. Last year at Sonoma he was wrecked and finished 42nd. In four of the five Sonoma races prior to last year he finished in the teens.
At Watkins Glen last season he ran well and finished 9th. In 2013 and 2012 he had results of 23rd and 8th. From 2011 to 2007 he finished between 12th and 14th every race.