Brad Keselowski 2014 Stats: Points Finish 5th, 5 Poles, 6 Wins, 17 Top Fives, 20 Top Tens, Average Running Position 11.1, Average Finish 12.6, Laps Led 1,540, Driver Rating 103.7
Strengths – Look for Brad Keselowski to have his best days at intermediate tracks, short tracks, shorter flat tracks, Watkins Glen and Talladega.
Weaknesses – Consistency was a huge issue for Keselowski in 2014 and it plagued him at almost every track type.
Track Type Fantasy ValueKey=Elite > High > Moderate >Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Last season on intermediate tracks Keselowski was one of the strongest performers. As long as he had an incident free race he was a lock for a good result. On this track type last year he won three races, had 8 top fives and 10 top tens.
Minus the intermediate track races where he had significant problems (Kansas #2, Atlanta and Auto Club Speedway) he had a 6.8 average finish and scored the most points (over that select group of races).
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Flat Track Fantasy Value – Elite
On the shorter flat tracks (New Hampshire and Phoenix) last year nobody was better than Keselowski. Between those four events he scored the most points, had 1 win, 3 top fives and four top tens.
At New Hampshire he’s been very strong recently. Last year he won in dominant fashion in July and finished 7th in the Chase. Since fall 2011 at the Magic Mile he has the best driver rating, a 5.1 average finish and an 8.4 average running position.
At Phoenix last year he had results of 3rd and 4th. Since 2012 at Phoenix he has a 5.5 average finish and a worst result of 11th.
The bigger flat tracks haven’t been quite as friendly to him but he’s still very competitive. At Indy last season he was never a factor and finished 12th. In 2013 he finished 21st. In 2012 and 2011 he finished 9th in both races.
Last August at the Tricky Triangle he had top ten potential but finished 23rd after damaging his car in a wreck. In spring 2014 he finished 2nd and led 95 laps. He likely would’ve won that race if he didn’t have debris on his grille.
Read his teammates fantasy NASCAR preview : Joey Logano
Short Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Between the three short tracks I think his fantasy value is the highest at Richmond right now. Last fall at that venue he was dominant. He won from the pole, led 383 laps and had a first place average running position. In spring 2014 he could’ve potentially won but Kenseth held him up at the end. In that event he finished 4th and led 114 laps. In fall 2013 he had top five potential but finished 17th after getting burned by a caution during the pit cycle. Also in that race he led 142 laps.
At Thunder Valley he needs to be considered one of the favorites. He’s won there twice and has finished in the top three in 4 of the last 7 races. Last August he finished runner-up to his teammate. In spring 2014 he ran well and had top 5 potential but he damaged his car late and finished 14th.
Martinsville was not friendly to him last year. He had problems in both races and had results of 31st and 38th. Prior to 2014 he had four straight top ten finishes.
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Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Keselowski is a driver who has a knack at restrictor plate racing. He knows how to get the job done at these venues and position himself for success at the end. Between the two plate tracks he’s been more successful at Talladega.
At Talladega Keselowski has three wins and has finished in the top ten 58% percent of the time. Last fall he had a clutch performance and raced his way to victory lane. In spring 2014 he had a fast car but self-inflicted mistakes took him out of contention.
Daytona hasn’t been as friendly but he’s shown potential recently. Last summer he finished 18th. In three of the four races prior to that he finished in the top 8. In last season’s Daytona 500 he ran very well and finished 3rd. At the end of the event he had one of the strongest cars on the track.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – High
At Watkins Glen Keselowski is an elite performer but Sonoma his fantasy value isn’t as high. Last year at the Glen he had brake issues and finished 35th. Prior to that event he had three straight 2nd place finishes.
Last season he looked lost at Sonoma and he’s lucky he finished 22nd. Performance wise he was likely about 35th place good. In 2013 he finished 21st. In the last four Sonoma races he’s finished between 10th and 22nd every event.