Martinsville STP 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Greg Biffle – Years ago Martinsville was the last track I would pick Greg Biffle. From a career perspective it stands out as the lone venue he’s visited 5 or more times that he’s failed to finish in the top five. His average finish stands at 19.8 and he’s only worse in that statistic at two other tracks. The good news about Greg Biffle is that recently he’s been performing much better at Martinsville. Over the last seven he has a 12.4 average finish, 15.1 average running position and the 15th best driver rating. Also over this stretch he’s finished in the top twenty every race which is a huge deal when you look at his overall track record. Last fall at Martinsville Biffle likely had a mid-teens to high-teens car but when the checkered flag waved he finished 13th. In spring 2014 he looked very competitive at times. Shortly after lap 150 he even drove to the lead and led 18 laps. Unfortunately that was short lived and for whatever reason his car appeared to drop off competitively. In the race Biffle started in 11th, had a 13th place average running position, earned the 14th best driver rating and finished 18th. In 2013 he had his best year at Martinsville hands down. In fall 2013 he rallied to a 9th place finish despite some adversity. With 125 laps to go his rear bumper was flapping in the wind. He blamed Johnson for that and made contact with the 48. NASCAR forced him to fix it during his next pit stop and he went from 7th to 27th. In spring 2013 he also had a 9th place result. In that race though I wouldn’t say he was as good as his finish. He started in 22nd, had a 16th place average running position and only ran in the top fifteen in 38.4% percent of the laps completed. It’s also important to note that in one point during a long green flag run he went down a lap.

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Aric Almirola – If you’re considering Aric Almirola it’s really a dice roll where he’ll finish at Martinsville. He’s raced here six times for RPM and has three finishes between 4th and 8th and three finishes of either 20th or 21st. One trait of his that I like about him here is that he attacks the track patiently. Last fall he had an OK race and ran a little better than where he finished. In the event he started in 27th and raced his way into the low teens in about 75 laps. From that point of the race until the lap 295 caution when he was running solidly in the top ten he looked very good. During that caution some drivers pitted and others didn’t. He choose to pit and it dropped him into the 20’s. In the remainder of the race he reached the low teens again but that’s as close to the front as he got. In the closing laps he was running around 15th but he lost a number of positions late and as a result he finished 21st. In spring 2014 he had a solid race. He finished 8th and earned the 10th best driver rating. Also in the event he consistently ran close to the front and had a 12th place average running position. In 2013 Almirola finished 20th in both races and had the 19th best driver rating for the season. In 2012 at Martinsville he had a very solid season. In spring 2012 he finished 8th and in fall 2012 he finished 4th. In the combined races that season he had the 13th best driver rating and scored the 3rd most points. The only drivers who accumulated more points than him were Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman.

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Kyle Larson – Martinsville has not been kind to Kyle Larson. He has a 33.0 average result and has yet to finish on the lead lap. Last fall Larson was on pace to have his best Martinsville race but he had trouble late. With 13 laps to go he was battling Ambrose for 12th but they had contact and he spun into the wall. In the event he wasn’t very competitive except for the final 60 laps when he ran in the low to mid teens. His overall average running position for the race was 22nd. In spring 2014 he shown flashes that would give people optimism. In that event just after the midpoint he raced as high as the top five. It was a race of “comers and goers” though and in the first-third and the last-third he didn’t run nearly as well. His race also wasn’t incident free. On lap 341 while he was running in 20th he was spun. From that point until the conclusion of the race he ran within a few deviations of 28th. When the checkered flag waved he finished two laps down in 27th. In fall 2013 he made a pre-rookie start and finished 42nd after having engine problems.

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