Kansas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks / Predictions

Come Charlotte some drivers will be happy that their not in Kansas anymore. Last fall at Kansas a ton of drivers had problems in the race which led to some extremely misleading results. Our PROS Rankings from that race is much more reflective of how drivers performed than where they crossed the finish line.

Track position is huge at Kansas and starting up front is important. Since Kansas was reconfigured the winner has started in the top 13 every race from an average starting position of 6.2. Here’s the qualifying results for Kansas.

Two practice sessions were held for the Kansas SpongeBob SquarePants 400. Between the two sessions I think the track conditions from the first session will probably prove to be closer to race conditions. That said I would highly recommend you read all of our practice notes (Practice #1 Notes & Happy Hour Practice Notes). Tire wear at Kansas isn’t as high as it is at other venues and as a result not many drivers completed 10 lap runs. Still a smart fantasy racer should never overlook any facts that are on the table. Also make sure you check out all of our practice speeds (Practice #1 Speeds & Happy Hour Speeds). Our 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet should help give you an idea about who was good between the two practice sessions over long runs. Finally I would like to note that this is a combined Confidence Ranking Picks post and Post Happy Hour Predictions post. I strongly believe this post has all the information you’ll need to make an informed decision for Kansas.

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1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 6th ) (Odds To Win – 7/2 ) (Risk Level – Low)
Quick Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick is a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Kansas SpongeBob SquarePants 400. He’s the Las Vegas odds on favorite and for good reason. In 2015 at high-speed intermediate tracks nobody has been better than him. In every race this season on this track type he’s finished in the top two. When you combine that attribute with how strong he’s been over the last three Kansas races you can count on him contending on Saturday night. Las Vegas is the most similar track to Kansas and he dominated that race. The bad news for the competition is that he’ll be using that chassis again this weekend. In practice his car was extremely fast over long runs. In happy hour his ten lap average ranked as the best.
Kansas History – Since the Kansas reconfiguration Kevin Harvick has arguably been the best driver. Over the last five races he has the best driver rating, led the most laps (318) and has a 7.6 average finish. Performance wise he’s been better than his average result. Last fall he had about a 3rd place car but with 53 laps to go he slowed on the track and pitted under green because he thought he had a tire going down which dropped him back to 23rd. He rallied back from that issue and walked away with an asterisk mark 12th place finish. Even with his issue he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 61 laps. In spring 2014 he had the best car but was beat off pit road at the end which ultimately cost him the race. In that event he led 119 laps, finished 2nd and earned the best driver rating. If he would’ve retained the lead following the final round of pit stops there’s no question in my mind that he would’ve won. When his car was in clean air he was untouchable. In fall 2013 he had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. In that event he earned the best driver rating and led a race high 138 laps. While his car was out front probably the only driver who had anything for him was Jimmie Johnson. Also in that race he overcame adversity when there was a caution during a round of pit stops that trapped him back in the twenties. In spring 2013 Harvick had a good race. He finished 12th but in my opinion his car was better than that. What happened is that late in the event he elected to pit for four tires and almost everybody else did two. In the race he earned the 6th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. In the first race on the new surface he finished 11th.
Recent Similar Track Trends – Kevin Harvick has been extremely fast at high-speed intermediate tracks this season. At these venues he’s scored the most points, has the best driver rating, a 3rd place average running position and has led 388 laps. Also in terms of being the fastest car outright he’s also run 237 fast laps. That’s 95 more than Jimmie Johnson who ranks #2 in that statistic.
Momentum – Nobody has been better than point’s leader Kevin Harvick this season. Minus Bristol where he crashed he has a 3.1 average finish and has had a result in the top 8 every race.

Further Recommended Reading – Kansas Scouting Report, Kansas Odds To Win, Kansas Chassis Selections, PROS Rankings, NASCAR Power Index – Kansas

2) Joey Logano (Starting – 1st ) (Odds To Win – 8/1 ) (Risk Level – Low)
Quick Fantasy Spin – Joey Logano is the most recent winner at Kansas and he should be counted on for a good result. Over the last couple of Kansas races he belongs in the conversation of being the best performer. This season at 1.5 mile tracks Logano has run well but his car has seemed to drop off late in all three races. That said don’t overlook his 2015 6.0 average finish at tracks of this length. In practice Logano had a fast car.
Kansas History – Joey Logano has been a strong performer at Kansas. Over the last three races Logano has a 3.0 average finish, 4.0 average running position and the 2nd best driver rating. Last fall he had a very impressive performance and drove the #22 to victory lane. In addition to his victory he earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 122 laps. Lots of drivers had tire issues last fall but he did not. In spring 2014 Logano had a fast car. He started 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, finished 4th and led 63 laps. Outside of Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon he probably had the next best car. In fall 2013 he also finished 4th. In that race he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 33 laps. In that race his car was fast over long runs and on a few occasions he was scuffled back in the running order because of other drivers using pit strategies but he was able to slice and dice he was up through the running order without much difficulty.
Recent Similar Track Trends – This season at 1.5 mile tracks Joey Logano has been a strong performer. At tracks of this length he’s scored the 3rd most points, has a 6.0 average finish, 6.0 average running position and has led 150 laps.
Momentum – Joey Logano has run well this season. Minus Talladega and Bristol where he was caught up in wrecks he has a 5.25 average finish.

3) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 19th ) (Odds To Win – 6/1 ) (Risk Level – Low)
Quick Fantasy Spin – Last fall Kansas was rough on Johnson but look for him to bounce back. With the exception of that race he was a perfect 11 for 11 in terms of finishing in the top ten at Kansas since 2007. With the 2015 rules package at 1.5 mile tracks he’s been a fantasy ace. He’s won two of the three races and in the one race he didn’t win he was leading at the time of his problem. If he didn’t have issues he probably would’ve won that race also. On Saturday night he’ll be using his Atlanta chassis which raced its way to victory lane. One attribute you really have to like about Johnson is his momentum. In practice Jimmie Johnson didn’t have the fastest lap times but that didn’t seem to trouble him. In an interview in happy hour he said his car was good.
Kansas History – Last October Jimmie Johnson had a disastrous Kansas weekend. His car was never to his liking and it manifested itself in the race. He wasn’t even close to being competitive. In the race he started in 32nd and on lap 84 while he was running around 21st he got collected in a “Big One” that led to him finishing in 40th, 87 laps down. In the 11 Kansas races prior to that race he finished in the top ten. In the first four races on the current Kansas configuration he had the 3rd best driver rating and a 6.8 average finish. Last spring he had a good evening and had about an 8th place car. In that event He started in 14th, finished 9th and led 24 laps. In fall 2013 Johnson had one of the best cars. He was strong over long runs and his car worked well in traffic. In that race he finished 6th, had an 8th place average running position and earned the 4th best driver rating. His stats line is somewhat misleading because his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 87 there was a caution during the pit cycle. Just before it came out Johnson was leading and then when he was committed to pit road the caution came out. Because of how that circumstance worked out Johnson couldn’t pit and he had to drive down pit road and lost a number of positions. When he blended back into the field he was in 17th. In spring 2013 Johnson started mid-pack in 21st but by lap 60 he reached the top ten. From there on he continued to pass cars and when the checkered flag waved he finished 3rd and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In the first race on the new surface he had one of the best cars but his afternoon wasn’t incident free. He started in 7th, led 44 laps and finished 9th. Performance wise he was top five good.
Recent Similar Track Trends – At 1.5 mile tracks Jimmie Johnson has been a fantasy ace in 2015. He’s won at two of the three tracks and at the one race he didn’t he was leading at the time he had a loose wheel. Between Atlanta and Texas he led 220 laps and had a 4.5 average running position.
Momentum – Jimmie Johnson now has four straight top 3 results. Over this stretch he’s scored the most points by 27 and has the second best driver rating.