Dover FedEx 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 14th) (Odds To Win – 7/2)
Quick Fantasy Spin – It’s hard to go wrong if you make Jimmie Johnson your fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Dover FedEx 400. He’s vying for his 10th Monster Mile win and he’s just 24 laps short of leading 3,000 laps. This week he has a natural edge on the competition because he recently took part in testing at Dover. In practice Johnson was extremely fast and Chad Knaus was pleased with his lap times. In practice #2 Johnson had the 2nd best 10 lap average. In Happy Hour Johnson was concerned that his car wasn’t tightening up but he was fast. In Happy Hour he had the 4th best cumulative practice speed.
Dover Track History – Dover has been a great track for Jimmie Johnson. In 8 of the last 9 races he’s finished in the top ten. In the one race he finished outside the top ten over this stretch he had the best car but jumped a late restart. Over this 9 race stretch he has a 4.3 average finish, a 3.0 average running position, has led 1,545 laps and has run 544 fastest laps. Last fall Johnson drove a conservative race and never pushed his car hard. When the checkered flag waved he finished 3rd, had a 4th place average running position and earned the 4th best driver rating. What’s most notable about that race is that he didn’t lead any laps. In the 12 Dover races prior to that he averaged leading 201.6 laps per race. Last June Johnson dominated the race. He went to victory lane, had a 2nd place average running position, led 272 laps and ran 79 fastest laps. In fall 2013 he had another great performance. In that race nobody had anything for him. He had a 2nd place average running position, led 243 laps and ran 67 fastest laps. In spring 2013 Johnson was off early but once his car was tuned to his liking he had the best car. He had the race all but won but during a late pit stop he was beat off pit road and then black flagged during a restart. In the five Dover races prior to that he had a 3.4 average finish.
Momentum – Last week at Charlotte Jimmie Johnson crashed while running near 5th. In the five races prior to that he had five straight top three finishes and a 1.8 average result.

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2) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 6th) (Odds To Win – 7/2)
Quick Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick has never won at the Monster Mile but he’s performed well. In 2014 he was good enough to win both races but walked away with asterisk mark finishes. In practice #2 Kevin Harvick looked fast but was missing elite speed. In Happy Hour Harvick had the 5th best 10 lap average and the best cumulative lap average.
Dover Track History – Last year at Dover Kevin Harvick had a great car. In both events he was a contender to win. Last fall it looked like he had the field covered but his race wasn’t incident free. In the race he led 223 laps but on lap 252 while he was leading he had a tire go down and his splitter was grinding the track. Considering he led 88% percent of the laps before his issue it’s pretty safe to assume he probably had the best car. Even with his issue he still finished 13th, had a 7.0 average running position and had 64 fastest laps (second most). Also with his problem it should be noted based on DraftKings scoring he would’ve scored the most points. Last spring he was also strong and might’ve had the best car but he had a valve stem knocked out on lap 165 while he was leading which led to a flat. That issue dropped him down two laps and led to a 17th place finish. Prior to his issue he led the 24 previous laps. In fall 2013 Harvick looked like a low double digit driver for the first 300 laps but over the last quarter of the race he drove hard and rallied to a 6th place finish. In spring 2013 Harvick ran well throughout the event. He finished 8th, had a 7th place average running position and earned the 4th best driver rating. Between the 2012 and 2011 races at Dover Harvick earned the 6th best driver rating, had an 8.8 average finish and had a 9.3 average running position.
Momentum – Kevin Harvick now has four straight top ten finishes and over this stretch he has a 5.25 average result. For the season minus Bristol where he wrecked while leading he has a 3.5 average finish.

Further Recommended Reading – Dover Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Dover Happy Hour Notes, Dover Cumulative Happy Hour Cumulative Speeds, Dover Happy Hour Speeds and Averages, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, PROS Rankings, Scouting Report, DraftKings 2014 Dover Scoring

3) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 2nd) (Odds To Win – 15/1)
Quick Fantasy Spin – Momentum matters in fantasy NASCAR and Martin Truex Jr. has it. This season he’s finished in the top ten every race but Bristol. Dover is the perfect place for him to capitalize on his momentum. It ranks as arguably his best track and last year he swept the top ten. In the last two races this season Truex Jr. has had the car to beat. On Sunday he’ll be driving that chassis again. With him starting up front and being good in practice look for him to be a driver to beat. In Happy Hour Truex Jr. didn’t like his car at the start of the session but it was later tuned to his liking. In Happy Hour his cumulative lap average speed ranked as the 3rd best.
Dover Track History – Dover has been a great track for Martin Truex Jr. In 2007 he won his first race here and led 216 laps. In recent races he’s run extremely well and has finished in the top ten in 5 of the last 8 races. In 2014 he ran well in both races. Last fall he started deep in the field but drove up towards the front. He started in 26th and crossed the finish line in 7th. Because of his large place differential and highest pass differential he would’ve scored the 5th most points under DraftKings scoring. Last spring at the Monster Mile he had one of his best races of the season and crossed the finish line in 6th. In that race over the final laps he rallied from 13th up to his result. In fall 2013 he was mediocre. Between lap 100 and 400 he ran between 15th and 20th. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 15th. In spring 2013 he started in 2nd, consistently ran in the top three but his motor went south on lap 279. If that didn’t happen he looked like a lock for a top five finish. In the 2012 events he had a 6.5 average finish and earned the 9th best driver rating.
Momentum – Martin Truex Jr. has had the best car two weeks in a row now but has failed to capitalize. In every race this season except at Bristol he’s finished in the top ten. Minus Bristol for the season he has a 6.8 average finish.