Daytona Coke Zero 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Starting – 1st) (Odds To Win – 8/1)
Daytona Fantasy Bottom Line – Dale Earnhardt Jr. is entering the Daytona Coke Zero 400 as the favorite to win and for good reason. He’s arguably the best drafter in NASCAR and he knows how to get the job done on this track type. At the last plate track visited he went to victory lane. This season at plate tracks he’s scored the most points, has a 2.0 average finish and in both races he had the best car. The main attribute that puts him over the top for many people is his drafting talent. He knows how to position his car in the draft better than others and when he gets out front he’s hard to get around. In practice Danica Patrick’s spotter told her that Dale Earnhardt Jr. had the best car on the track.
Daytona History – Dale Earnhardt Jr. is an elite competitor at Daytona. Over the last five Daytona races he has the best driver rating, best average finish (5.6), second best average running position and has led 86 laps. In this year’s Daytona 500 he had a great car and I would argue it was the best. He earned the best PROS Rankings, 2nd best driver rating, finished 3rd, had  4th place average running position and led 32 laps. In the race his car had standout speed but late in the event he made a poor lane selection decision that dropped him into the teens with only a few laps remaining. Last July he was a victim of the first “Big One” but he dodged the second “Big One” and finished 14th as a result. In the 2014 Daytona 500 he raced his way to victory lane and showed off his superb drafting talent in the closing segment of the race. Also in that race he earned the best driver rating and led 54 laps. In the 2013 Daytona summer race he finished 8th and earned the 4th best driver rating. In the 2013 Daytona 500 he spent much of the event racing outside the top ten but when it was time to go he worked with Mark Martin and raced his way up to a 2nd place result. In his career at Daytona he has three wins and a 13.1 average finish.
Recent Similar Track History – Recently at Talladega Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been a hero or zero performer. He won this spring but his next two most recent results were finishes of 26th and 31st.
Momentum –Since Dale Earnhardt Jr. won at Talladega 7 races ago he’s scored the most points in the series and has a 5.9 average finish.

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2) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 12th) (Odds To Win – 10/1)
Daytona Fantasy Bottom Line – In the Gen6 car at restrictor plate tracks nobody has been better than Johnson. In the 10 races on this track type in the current car he has the best driver rating, best average running position (9.7) and has led the most laps (364). In the five Daytona races over this stretch he has the best driver rating, 2 wins and has finished in the top 5 in every race but July 2014 where he was caught up in the “early Big One”. Between the two plate races this season he’s scored the 2nd most points and has a 3.5 average finish. In the season opening Daytona 500 Johnson had one of the best cars. Look for him to be tough to beat on Sunday night.
Daytona History – Jimmie Johnson has been a fantasy ace at Daytona. In four of the last five races he’s finished in the top five. Over this stretch minus the July 2014 race where he was caught up in an “early big one” he has the best driver rating and a 3.0 average finish. In this year’s Daytona 500 Johnson had one of the best cars. He finished 5th, earned the 6th best driver rating and led 39 laps. Also in the race he overcame a pit penalty around the midpoint. Last July Johnson started up front and ran up front until he was collected in the lap #21 “Big One”. In the 2014 Daytona 500 Johnson had a strong showing. He ran near the back early but over the last 120 laps he really came on strong. Over that portion of the race I would estimate his average running position was around 5th. When the checkered flag waved he finished 5th, earned the 6th best driver rating and led 15 laps. In 2013 nobody was better than Johnson at Daytona and he pulled out the broom. In July 2013 he was dominant. His car handled well and when he ran the low line nobody could get around him. When the race reached its conclusion he earned the best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 94 laps. In the 2013 Daytona 500 Johnson reached victory lane, had the best driver rating and led 17 laps.
Recent Similar Track History – This spring at Talladega Johnson finished 2nd and led 50 laps. Last fall he arguably had the best car (Led 84 laps) but he made some poor lane selection decisions at the end.
Momentum – Since Texas minus the two races Johnson had trouble (Charlotte & Michigan) he’s finished in the top six every race and has a 2.4 average finish

Further Recommended Reading – Daytona Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Daytona Starting Lineup, Daytona Practice Notes / Practice Speed Center, Daytona PROS Rankings, Daytona Scouting Report

3) Kurt Busch (Starting – 28th) (Odds To Win – 12/1)
Daytona Fantasy Bottom Line – Kurt Busch is an elite drafting talent. He’s never won a points paying race on this track type but he’s been good enough to win many times in the past. He missed the season opening Daytona 500 but in his last three races here he ranked as one of the strongest performers. One attribute you have to like about him this weekend is his momentum that you’ll read about below. At plate tracks I view momentum as sort of a good luck charm in hopes that the driver will avoid trouble.
Daytona History – Kurt Busch is a very good driver at Daytona. In his career at this venue he has three runner-up results, 11 top fives (39%) and 14 top tens (50%). In February Kurt Busch missed the Daytona 500 due to suspension. In the three Daytona races prior to that he had the best driver rating in the series. His most recent Daytona race was last summer. In that race he dodged the early “Big One” and then looked like the driver to beat. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 3rd, had a 10th place average running position and led 36 laps. In last year’s Daytona 500 he ran well and was better than his 21st place result. In that event he started 8th, had the 10th best driver rating, had a 12th place average running position and led 15 laps. Late in the race with 11 laps to go he spun and no caution came out. In summer 2013 under the lights Busch ran well. He finished 6th and earned the 3rd best driver rating.
Recent Similar Track History – In the last two Talladega races Kurt Busch has finished 7th and 12th. Prior to those races he went 8 straight races where he finished 18th or worse.
Momentum –Kurt Busch is building up momentum. He has three straight top fives and in the last two races he’s finished 1st and 2nd.