Kentucky Quaker State 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 2nd) (Odds To Win – 10/1)
Kentucky Fantasy Bottom Line – With the beating Brad Keselowski put on the competition last year look for him to be tough to beat, especially from the 2nd place starting position. This year Penske cars have lacked speed but not handling. Kentucky is a bumpy track and having a good handling car will be key. In practice Keselowski appeared to have a great car and was fast over long runs.
Kentucky History – There’s been four races at Kentucky and Brad Keselowski has won half of them. Last year he dominated the race and nobody had anything for him. In addition to his trip to victory lane he earned a perfect driver rating, had a first place average running position and led 199 laps. In 2013 when he was in his season long slump he had his worst race at Kentucky. In that event on lap 48 he was running around 10th but Kurt Busch got into him and it sent the 2 car spinning which caused a huge wreck and brought out the red flag. Prior to the wreck he consistently ran between 6th and 10th. In 2012 he had a strong showing and won his first race at Kentucky. There’s two factors that propelled him to victory lane in that race. His car was good over long runs and he was able to save fuel while driving hard. In the race he led 68 laps, had a second place average running position and earned the best driver rating (137.7). In 2011 at Kentucky he started in 5th, finished 7th and led 79 laps.
Recent Similar Track Trends – Keselowski has been a consistent performer at 1.5 mile tracks and is one of four drivers who have finished in the top ten every race. Also at these venues he’s scored the 4th most points and has a 7.0 average finish.
Momentum – Brad Keselowski is in the midst of a tough stretch and over the last five races he only has one top ten and a 16.6 average finish.

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2) Joey Logano (Starting – 4th) (Odds To Win – 17/2)
Kentucky Fantasy Bottom Line – Joey Logano should have a strong performance at Kentucky. He runs well at this venue and since he’s been in Penske equipment he’s ranked as one of the best. With Logano starting so close to the front I expect him to remain near the leaders all race long. At the other 1.5 intermediate tracks this season he’s started in the top 6 every race and has a 7.2 average finish. In practice Joey Logano liked his car and was fast over long runs. He even wishes Happy Hour was canceled because he felt his car was that good.
Kentucky History – Joey Logano has run well at Kentucky and is better than his 12.3 average finish. Last year he had one of the best cars. He had the 3rd best PROS Ranking, the 3rd best driver rating, a 3rd place average running position and led 37 laps. When the checkered flag waved he finished 9th but it’s important to note he was better than his result. Late in the race he eased up because he felt like his engine was about to blow up. In 2013 Logano had a great car and was a consistent front runner. From lap 120 to the conclusion of the event he ran in the top five. When the checkered flag waved he finished 4th and earned the 4th best driver rating. In 2012 Logano walked away with a misleading 22nd place result. In that event on lap 160 he was battling Clint Bowyer for 10th but Newman ran into the back of Logano and it shot him into Clint Bowyer which caused him to make an emergency pit stop. In the Xfinity Series at Kentucky Logano has been to victory lane three times.
Recent Similar Track Trends – Joey Logano has been strong at 1.5 mile tracks this season and has scored the 5th most points and has a 7.2 average finish.
Momentum – Joey Logano finished 22nd at Daytona. That snapped his three race top five streak.

Further Recommended Reading – Kentucky Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Kentucky Happy Hour Notes, Kentucky Happy Hour Speeds, Kentucky Practice #1 Notes, Kentucky Practice #1 Speeds, Kentucky Starting Lineup, Kentucky PROS Rankings, Kentucky Scouting Report, Kentucky DraftKings Points From The Last Race

3) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 6th) (Odds To Win – 11/2)
Kentucky Fantasy Bottom Line – Jimmie Johnson will be one of the drivers to beat on Saturday night. This is perhaps the smartest team in NASCAR and they’ll be able to adjust to the new rules package better than most Another strength of this team’s is fine tuning a car throughout the course of a race. The main factor I like about Johnson is how strong he’s been at 1.5 mile tracks this season. His 3 wins in 5 races can’t be overlooked. In the two events he didn’t go to victory lane he was top five good. Throughout the course of Happy Hour the #48 improved. Also in Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 7th best.
Kentucky History – Jimmie Johnson has been a consistent performer at Kentucky and is one of four drivers who have finished in the top ten every race (7.0 average result). Last year he had a good performance but was never a contender. He started mid-pack (25th), had a 13th place average running position and finished 10th. In 2013 he had the best car but lost the race late when he spun during a restart on lap 246. At that time he was running in 2nd after being beat off pit road by Matt Kenseth who took two tires. The spin dropped him to 22nd with with only a few laps remaining. Over the closing run he was able to rally up to a 9th place result. Also in that race it should be noted he earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 182 laps. In 2012 at Kentucky Johnson started on the pole, led 21 laps and finished 6th. In the race he was likely better than his result but during a late restart while he was running in 5th he spun his tires which dropped him to the low double digits. In the first Kentucky race Johnson finished 3rd after being inched at the line by David Reutimann.
Recent Similar Track Trends – There’s been five races at 1.5 mile tracks in 2015 and Johnson has won three of them. In the other events he was leading at Las Vegas until he had tire problems and at Charlotte he was running in the top five until he wrecked.
Momentum – In four of the last five races Johnson has finished in the top ten. Since April minus Charlotte where he crashed while running in the top five Johnson has scored the most points in the series.