Indianapolis Jeff Kyle 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 6th) (Odds To Win – 4/1)
Indy Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Kevin Harvick will be a great fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Indy Jeff Kyle 400. He hasn’t kissed the bricks since 2003 but he’s primed to do so again. This race is typically won by the best of the best and nobody has been better than Harvick this season. In practice Kevin Harvick had a fast car. He had good short run speed and long run speed. Over long extended runs of ten laps plus I expect him to be the class of the field.
Indianapolis History – Indy is a great track for Kevin Harvick and he’s been strong here. He’s a former champion and in 79% percent of his starts he’s finished in the top 13. If you’re looking to avoid risk you can also take comfort in knowing that only once in his thirteen starts has he finished outside the top 20. His only finish outside the top 20 came in the 2008 tire debacle. Last year Harvick was competitive, but was never really a threat to win. In the race he started on the pole, finished 8th and led 12 laps. In 2013 in his final RCR race he didn’t have a good showing. He finished 19th and that’s pretty representative of his performance. In 2012 he finished 13th and had a 15th place average running position. In 2011 he finished 11th but he was a little better than that. Many of the hyper mileage drivers were not better than him. In 2010 Kevin Harvick finished 2nd to Jamie McMurray. In 2003 Kevin Harvick kissed the bricks and emerged victorious.
Recent Similar Track Trends – At Pocono Kevin Harvick has back to back second place finishes. This spring he had a great car earning the 2nd best driver rating, having a 3rd place average running position and leading 39 laps.
Momentum – Kevin Harvick has four straight top tens. Only twice this season has he finished outside the top ten and in those races he had problems while leading and problems while running in 3rd.

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2) Kyle Busch (Starting – 9th) (Odds To Win – 10/1)
Indy Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Momentum matters in fantasy NASCAR and Kyle Busch has it. Three wins in the last four races can’t be overlooked. When you combine momentum with Indy which has been historically a great track for him good things happen such as we witnessed at New Hampshire and Kentucky. At the Brickyard Kyle Busch is an awesome performer. A more than solid case could be made that he’s the best driver who’s never won. He currently has five straight top tens and in two of the last three races he’s finished runner-up. One aspect that will come into play on Sunday is the heat. That will make the track slick and Kyle Busch is one of the best wheel man in NASCAR.
Indianapolis History – Kyle Busch has been very strong at Indy. In his ten Indy races he has 8 top tens and has only once finished lower than 15th. Currently at Indy has five straight top tens. That ranks as the longest active top ten streak. Over this five race stretch he has the 5th best driver rating, a 6.4 average finish and a 9.8 average running position. Last year Busch had a very strong performance. He finished runner-up and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In the second half of the event minus low points in pit cycles about the lowest he ran was 3rd. In summer 2013 he had a solid race finishing 10th and having an 11th place average running position. In 2012 he was very strong and once again finished runner-up. Also in that race he earned the second best driver rating and had a 4th place average running position. In the two Indy races prior to that he finished 8th and 10th.
Recent Similar Track Trends – This spring at Pocono Kyle Busch had top five potential but finished 9th. Last August at Pocono he was sidelined early because of engine problems. In the three Pocono races prior to that he had an 8.6 average finish.
Momentum – In three of the last four races Kyle Busch has been to victory lane. It’s hard to say anyone’s hotter.

Further Recommended Reading – Indy Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Happy Hour Enhanced Practice Speeds, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Starting Lineup, PROS Rankings, Scouting Report

3) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 12th) (Odds To Win – 7/1)
Indy Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Jimmie Johnson has historically been a hero or zero driver at Indy. That’s somewhat concerning but lately he’s been more of a “hero” performer. NASCAR rule changes are in the air this weekend and that might play into Johnson’s hands. Hendrick Motorsports is the best organization in NASCAR and the 48 team is arguably the smartest team. Practice did not go smoothly for Johnson on Friday. His car had “gremlin” issues in multiple sessions which is concerning. In Happy Hour Johnson’s issues seemed to go away. In that session he liked his car and Chad Knaus said, “Jimmie another solid run, solid run.” When he’s happy it’s a good sign Johnson will be strong. In that session his ten lap average ranked as the 4th best. In qualifying Johnson had an electrical problem and had to switch batteries.
Indianapolis History – At Indy Jimmie Johnson either does really good or pretty poorly. At this venue he has five top 2 finishes but 6 finishes of 18th or worse. His two results outside of that range were his most recent and first race. Of his 5 top five finishes four of them were wins. Last year Johnson was OK. There was nothing special about his performance and he was a disappointment for a driver who entered the weekend as a pre-race favorite. In the race he started 11th, had a 12th place average running position and finished 14th. In the two Brickyard races prior to that he was the class of the field. In 2013 he didn’t win the race but he did have the best car. In that race he finished 2nd, had a 3rd place average running position and led 73 laps. What kept him out of victory lane was Newman doing a two-tire pit stop and him having a long four-tire stop. That got Newman a healthy lead and Johnson wasn’t able to reel him in. In 2012 he went to victory lane and there’s no question he had the best car because he earned a perfect 150.0 driver rating. In that race he started in 6th and drove up to the lead in the first 30 laps. Also in that race he led 99 laps, had a 2nd place average running position and cruised to a comfortable 4.758 second margin of victory.
Recent Similar Track Trends – Johnson always runs well at Pocono but he’s had some recent misleading results. This spring he finished 3rd and earned the 4th best driver rating.
Momentum – Johnson couldn’t overcome a pit penalty at New Hampshire and finished 22nd. Prior to that he had three straight top tens.