Texas Duck Commander 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 11th) (Odds To Win – 9/2)
Texas Fantasy Spin – Jimmie Johnson will be the favorite to win at Texas. He’s been a super elite performer here with three straight wins, and five wins in the last seven races. When you combine that with his intermediate track success this season you know he’s positioned as the driver to beat. In practice Johnson had a good car. He had the 7th quickest overall lap and the 8th best 10 lap average.
Texas Track History – Texas has been a great track for Jimmie Johnson. He’s won here six-times, has finished in the top five 52% percent of the time and in the top ten 76% percent of the time. Currently at Texas Jimmie Johnson has a three race win streak. Over that stretch he has a 3.3 average running position and has led 325 laps. Last fall Johnson had a good car but was likely about 3rd place good. In that race his victory can largely be credited to a late caution which positioned him for the win at the end. Last spring Johnson unquestionably had the best car. He earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 128 laps. In fall 2014 he had a great race and once again reached victory lane. In that race he had a second place average running position and led 191 laps.
Similar Track Trends – This year at intermediate tracks Johnson has won two of the three races, has scored the most points, has the best average finish (1.7) ,has led the second most laps (153), has run the second most fastest-laps (73) and is the only driver who’s finished in the top five every race. In the race he didn’t win this season (Las Vegas) he led the most laps.
Momentum – Over the last five races Jimmie Johnson has scored the most points, has a 5.0 average finish and has had a result in the top 11 every race.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,400

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2) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 8th) (Odds To Win – 8/1)
Texas Fantasy Spin – Brad Keselowski is probably as close to a lock in terms of finishing in the top ten as anyone. Texas is a great track for him and last fall he took the competition to the “wood shed.” Also you shouldn’t overlook the fact that at 1.5 mile tracks Keselowski currently has 15 straight top tens dating back to the 2014 season. At the last 1.5 mile track visited he went to victory lane. On Saturday he’s starting 8th, that’s the same position Jimmie Johnson won from last fall. In Happy Hour Keselowski had good speed over a long run and his ten lap average ranked as the 3rd best.
Texas Track History – Brad Keselowski has been very strong at Texas. In 6 of the last 7 races he’s finished in the top ten. Currently he has a three race top 5 streak. Over the last four Texas races Keselowski has the best driver rating and a 6.3 average finish. Last fall he had the field covered but a late caution was his undoing and led to Johnson passing him. In that race he finished 2nd, had a 1st place average running position, earned the best driver rating, the best PROS Ranking and led 312 laps. Last spring he had a strong showing. He finished 5th, earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 7th place average running position and led 27 laps. To earn that result he had to overcome a late commitment cone violation on lap 267 while he was running in the top ten. In fall 2014 he finished 3rd, earned the 8th best driver rating and led 22 laps. In spring 2015 he was second place good but finished 15th after getting a late speeding penalty during the Green-White-Checker.
Similar Track Trends – This year at intermediate tracks Brad Keselowski has scored the third most points, is one of three drivers who have finished in the top ten every race and has a 6.3 average result. At Las Vegas he won.
Momentum – Brad Keselowski has performed very well recently. In four of the last five races he’s finished in the top ten. If he didn’t have problems at Phoenix he would likely be five for five over this stretch.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $9,600

Further Recommended Reading – Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Starting Lineup, Scouting Report, PROS Rankings, Asterisk Mark Report, Yahoo Start Page, DraftKings Start Page, Driver Fantasy Portal Pages, DraftKings Position Differential Tool, Fantasy NASCAR Similar Track Guide

3) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 22nd) (Odds To Win – 9/2)
Texas Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick has never won at Texas but he’ll be looking to change that on Saturday night. There’s two key attributes I want in a fantasy pick at Texas and Kevin Harvick has both of those boxes checked. He’s been an elite performer in recent Texas races, and an elite performer at intermediate tracks this season. Tire wear will be high this weekend and it should be noted it was reported that Harvick’s tire wear was minimal. This race could very well play out like Atlanta and Auto Club where he was the driver to beat. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 4th best. Although he’s starting deep in the field don’t be concerned. His team spent very little time in qualifying trim on Thursday.
Texas Track History – Kevin Harvick has been very strong at Texas. Currently in the Lone Star State he has three straight top 3 finishes. Also over this stretch he has the second best driver rating and a 4.0 average running position. Last fall he had to overcome two flat tires and a transmission that was jumping out of gear to finish 3rd. It was a very impressive performance when you consider what he had to overcome. Last spring he had a great car and the number you need to know about him is 2. He started 2nd, finished 2nd, had a 2nd place average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating and led 96 laps. In fall 2014 he also had a great car and finished 2nd. Additionally in that race he earned the 2nd best driver rating and had a 4th place average running position.
Similar Track Trends – Kevin Harvick has arguably been the best driver at intermediate tracks in 2016. For the season he’s scored the second most points, has a 5.0 average finish, has led the most laps and has run the most fastest laps. Atlanta and Auto Club Speedway are high tire wear tracks like Texas, at those venues he had the best car but lost the race late.
Momentum – In 2016 Kevin Harvick has scored the most points, has the best average finish (6.2) and the best driver rating.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,500