Aric Almirola 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Aric Almirola 2016 Stats : Points Finish 26th, 0 Wins, 0 Top Fives, 1 Top Ten, 22.3 Average Finish, 22.3 Average Running Position, 1 Lap Led
Strengths – Aric Almirola is typically at his best at shorter flat tracks and short tracks. He also isn’t a bad plate racer. If his team can improve in the engineering department then he might be able to regain his sleeper value at intermediate tracks.
Weaknesses – The #43 team wasn’t very good last year and lacked competitiveness. Almirola only had 1 top ten and only led 1 lap for the whole season. For being a few years removed from the Chase that’s horrendously bad.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Medium
2016 was a brutal year for Aric Almirola at intermediate tracks. He had a a 25.1 average finish and only had a result in the top twenty 29% percent of the time. Only twice in the seventeen races held on this track type did he crack the top fifteen.
In years past he was typically a quality sleeper option on this track type, but that certainly wasn’t the case last season. I think the main reason for his down turn in performance was RPM deciding to make their own chassis’s in-house. From a performance perspective in 2016 on a good day he was typically a low-twenties to a mid-twenties driver.
In 2017 I would look for Aric Almirola to show improvement on this track type. Based on how he performed last year there really isn’t much room to go down. Also I think it’s safe to say RPM will improve in the chassis making department which will help lead to increased on track success.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Medium
When it comes to flat tracks Aric Almirola only really has fantasy playability at the shorter flats. At the bigger flats he’s nothing more than a high-teens to mid-twenties driver.
His historical best flat track is New Hampshire. At that venue since fall 2014 minus a fall 2015 wreck he has a 14.25 average finish. Last year he finished in the high-teens both races and came home with results of 17th and 19th.
At Phoenix he’s been a respectable performer. Last fall he finished 22nd. In the nine Phoenix races prior to that he finished between 10th and 19th.
As mentioned earlier the bigger flats haven’t been great tracks for him. At Pocono since the second race of 2012 he’s finished between 18th and 22nd in every race he wasn’t involved in an accident or didn’t have an engine failure. In 2017 he’ll probably finish around that range again.
At Indy his track record is pretty similar. At that venue minus 2015 when he wrecked late he’s always finished between 17th and 25th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
Aric Almirola isn’t a bad short track racer. 2016 was a down-year for him at these venues, but then again where wasn’t he down across the board. For the season on this track type he scored the 24th most points and had a 23.5 average finish.
At all three short tracks he’s had success in the past. Martinsville is arguably his best short track. At that venue since 2014 minus a spring 2016 engine failure he has a 14.4 average finish. Last fall he finished 15th. What makes him so good at Martinsville is that he doesn’t abuse his equipment early in a run.
At Richmond he hasn’t been a bad performer. Last year he had results of 17th and 21st. Over the last five RIR races he has a 14.4 average finish.
At Bristol he’s capable of coming home with a quality finish. Last fall he survived the carnage and finished 14th. In spring 2016 he crashed. At that venue since 2013 in his incident free races he has a 13th place average finish.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
The draft is the great equalizer and as a result Aric Almirola was at his best against the competition on this track type in 2016. As you see on the left under Track Type Scoring Trends he’s typically been solid against the competition on a year to year basis. Last year on this track type he had a 15.5 average finish. If he didn’t crash in the first Talladega race his average finish would’ve been 11.6.
Between the two plate tracks Daytona has been his better track. It’s the site of his lone Sprint Cup win and since that victory minus a July 2015 wreck he has a 10.75 average finish. Last year he had results of 12th and 15th.
At Talladega he hasn’t been a bad performer. Since he’s been in the #43 minus a spring 2016 wreck and fall 2014 wreck he has a 14.4 average finish. In 2016 he had 1 top ten for the whole season and it happened here when he finished 8th in the fall.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Low
Aric Almirola was consistent last year at road courses, at both venues he finished 27th. Neither road course has been a great track for him. At both venues he has an average finish in the twenties.
Sonoma hasn’t been kind to him. In 2015 he finished 14th. In his other five starts at that west coast track he finished between 20th and 28th. His overall Sonoma average finish is 23.3.
At Watkins Glen he has three results in the teens and three results of 27th or worse. If you pick him at Watkins Glen it’s likely nothing good will come from that decision.
