Trevor Bayne 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2016 Stats : Points Finish 22nd, 0 Wins, 2 Top Fives, 5 Top Tens, 19.9 Average Finish, 22.1 Average Running Position, 34 Laps Led
Strengths – In 2017 Trevor Bayne will likely be at his best at plate tracks, intermediate tracks, Bristol and Richmond.
Weaknesses – Flat tracks aren’t friendly venues to him. Many of them rank as some of his very worst tracks.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
Last year at intermediate tracks Trevor Bayne scored the 21st most points and had a 20.7 average finish. Typically at these venues last season he was a mid-teens to low-twenties performer. In 2017 I think we can probably expect a similar level of performance from him.
In order for him to take the next step forward he needs to become a solid mid-teens to high-teens driver. I think that’s a reasonable goal because he isn’t that far off.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Medium
Not a lot of good will come from picking Trevor Bayne at flat tracks. Three of the four flat tracks rank in his bottom 5 tracks in terms of average finish. Last year on this track type minus Pocono he finished 23rd or worse every race.
Indy statistically ranks as his worst flat track. His average finish is 31.3 and in 5 of his 6 races he’s finished 28th or worse. Last year he finished 30th. In the two prior races he finished in the forties.
Pocono statistically ranks as his best flat track. His average finish minus overheating problems in August 2015 is 18.6. Last year he finished in the teens twice with results of 13th and 19th.
New Hampshire hasn’t been a great track for him. Last fall he crashed. In the two prior races he had results of 16th and 23rd.
Phoenix hasn’t been kind to him. Since he’s been in the #6 car he’s finished between 23rd and 34th every race. His average finish over these four races is 28.25.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
If it wasn’t for Martinsville Trevor Bayne would’ve had a much better season on this track type. Last year he scored the 17th most points and had a 16.3 average finish. His average finish minus the Martinsville events was 12th.
Martinsville hasn’t been a good track for him. Statistically it ranks as his worst short track and his average finish since he’s been a full-time driver is 24.75. Last year he had results of 23rd and 27th.
Bristol statistically ranks as his 3rd best track overall. In the recent races at Thunder Valley he’s been quite successful. Over the last three races he has a 10.6 average finish. Last year he had results of 5th and 12th. If you’re looking to pick him make sure you put Bristol on your fantasy NASCAR radar.
Richmond also hasn’t been a bad track for him. Last year he finished in the teens twice with results of 14th and 17th. In 2015 he finished in the low-twenties twice (23rd and 24th).
Plate Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
Trevor Bayne is definitely worth a look at plate tracks. Last year he had one really good race at each venue.
At Daytona Bayne is a former winner (2011). Following his win he went on a really bad stretch where he finished 20th or worse over 8 consecutive races. Recently he’s broken that slump and in two of the last three he’s finished in the top ten. Last summer he finished 3rd. In the season opening Daytona 500 in 2016 he finished 28th. In summer 2015 he finished 9th.
At Talladega Bayne was a respectable performer last year. For the season at that wild card venue he scored the 11th most points and had a 13.5 average finish. Last spring he finished 10th. In fall 2016 he finished 17th.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Medium
Trevor Bayne has a very short track record at road courses. In 3 of his 4 races he’s finished between 22nd and 25th.
Last year at Watkins he bucked that bad finish trend by starting deep in the field and finishing 9th. I wouldn’t recommend reading into that result too much because it’s likely a “fantasy trap.” In 2015 at Watkins Glen he finished 22nd.
At Sonoma he has results of 23rd and 25th.
