Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2016 Stats : Points Finish 21st, 0 Wins, 4 Top Fives, 6 Top Tens, 19.6 Average Finish, 20.6 Average Running Position, 6 Laps Led
Strengths – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is typically at his best at plate tracks and Bristol. He\’s also able to sneak in good results from time to time at shorter flat tracks and intermediate tracks.
Weaknesses – I wouldn\’t recommend picking Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at road courses and big flat tracks.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
Intermediate tracks make up the core of the NASCAR schedule and last year on this track type he was an OK performer. He scored the 17th most points, had an 18.8 average finish and had a result in the top twenty 71% percent of the time.
In 2016 on this track type he was at his best early in the season and typically looked like a mid-teens performer. In the second half of the season his performance level dropped off some and he looked like a mid-twenties performer on a consistent basis.
In 2017 I would look for him to typically be a high-teens to low-twenties driver.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
At flat tracks Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is typically at his best at the shorter tracks (Phoenix and New Hampshire). At the bigger flats he\’s had some good results but I don\’t trust him as much at those venues.
His best flat track is New Hampshire. Statistically it ranks as his 10th best track. Last fall he finished 24th. In his other four results since 2014 minus fall 2014 when he wrecked he has a 12.3 average finish. His two results prior to last fall were finishes of 10th and 13th.
At Phoenix he\’s also had success, but it\’s front loaded in his career. His last three races in the desert have been duds. Last fall he finished 23rd. In the two races prior to that he wrecked. Over his first five Phoenix races he finished between 12th and 18th (15th place average finish).
Indy hasn\’t been the friendliest track to him. Last year he finished 12th. In the three races prior to that he had poor results.
At Pocono in his last four incident free races he\’s finished in either 15th or 18th. Last year he had results of 15th and 18th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
When it comes to short tracks Stenhouse Jr. is worth a look at Bristol. In fact, it\’s the only short track I would consider picking him. It statistically ranks as his best track. He has a 10.6 average result, has finished in the top ten half the time and has only once finished lower than 21st. In 4 of the last 6 Bristol races he\’s finished in the top 6. Last summer he finished 2nd, in spring 2016 he finished 16th.
Martinsville is probably the last track I would consider picking him. It statistically ranks as his worst track because of his 32.7 average finish. In the last four Martinsville races he\’s finished between 32nd and 40th.
At Richmond probably the best case scenario if you pick him is a result in the high-teens. It just hasn\’t been a great track for him. Over the last five RIR races he has a 22.8 average finish.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – High
If I had to pick Ricky Stenhouse Jr. on any track type it would definitely be at plate tracks. He\’s a really good plate racer. Talladega ranks as his 2nd best track and Daytona ranks as his 4th best track. Last year on this track type he scored the 6th most points and finished in the top five twice.
Talladega has been a great track for him. He has an 11.7 average result and has finished in the top ten in four of the last six races. Last year he had results of 5th and 16th.
At Daytona he hasn\’t been quite as a successful but it still ranks as one of his best tracks. Last summer he finished 5th. In the two races prior to that he had results of 19th and 22nd.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Low
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. isn\’t a good road course driver. I wouldn\’t even flirt with the idea of picking him at either venue. Nothing good will come from it. His best overall finish on this track type in eight starts is 18th.
Watkins Glen is his worse of the two. In his last two races he\’s finished in the thirties. In his first two starts he had results of 18th and 20th.
At Sonoma his average finish is 26th. If you pick him you can likely expect him to finish around that range. Last year he finished 26th.
