Martin Truex Jr. 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Martin Truex Jr. 2016 Stats : Points Finish 11th, 4 Wins, 8 Top Fives, 17 Top Tens, 13.9 Average Finish, 9.8 Average Running Position, 1,809 Laps Led
Strengths – Martin Truex Jr. is a well rounded driver but he’s at his very best at intermediate tracks. Last year he was arguably the strongest performer on that track type.
Weaknesses – Bad luck and making crucial mistakes have been career long problems for Truex Jr.
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Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Martin Truex Jr. is an elite talent at intermediate tracks. In 2016 on this track type he was one of the strongest competitors in the series. He raced his way to victory lane four times and was capable of winning on any given Sunday. If it wasn’t for bad luck he could’ve probably doubled his win total. On a weekly basis he was as good of a default fantasy pick as you could make.
Additionally for the season on this track type he led the most laps, had the best average running position, ran the most fastest laps and had the second best driver rating.
In 2017 look for him to be strong on this track type again, but I think it will be hard for him to be as good because the bar was set so high. Also it should be noted that he’ll also have a teammate this upcoming season so Furniture Row Racing won’t be able to focus solely on the #78.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Martin Truex Jr. is a very strong flat track driver. He runs well at both the big flats, and the smaller flats. Last year on this track type he was very competitive but walked away with a number of misleading results. In 4 of the 7 races he had a misleading result. All of those problems led to him scoring the 18th most points on this track type last year, in 2015 he scored the 3rd most points on this track type.
I would say New Hampshire has been his best flat track recently. Last year he was a serious contender to win both races and led 123 laps in the summer, and 141 in the fall. In the summer race if he didn’t break his shifter he probably would’ve won and not finished a misleading 16th. In the fall race he finished 7th. His combined average running position for the season was a series best 3.0. In the five New Hampshire races prior to to 2016 he finished between 8th and 12th.
At Phoenix he’s been a consistent driver. In 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished between 7th and 14th. Last fall he finished 40th after having multiple problems in the race. In the spring event he finished 14th.
At Pocono he’s a recent champion but minus his win in spring 2015 things haven’t been smooth sailing for him. In his four other races since summer 2014 he’s finished 19th or worse. Last year he was strong in both races but neither event was incident free and as a result he had misleading finishes of 19th and 38th.
Indy has been a good track for him recently. In 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished between 4th and 11th. Last year he finished 8th. In 2015 he finished 4th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – High
Martin Truex Jr. had a career year at short tracks in 2016. He scored the 5th most points and had a 12.3 average finish. As you see on the left him performing at that high of a level isn’t exactly typical. At all three short tracks Martin Truex Jr. has the potential to come home with a good finish.
Richmond was his best short track last year. In 2016 he swept the top ten with results of 3rd (fall) and 9th (spring). In the fall race he was extremely competitive and led 193 laps. In five of the last seven RIR races he’s finished in the top ten.
At Martinsville he also ran very well last year. In the fall he started on the pole, led 147 laps and finished 7th. In the spring he had top ten potential but finished a misleading 18th. In 2015 he swept the top ten with a pair of 6th place results.
At Bristol he has the talent to get the job done, but it’s been a hole in his resume recently. He hasn’t finished in the top ten since spring 2012. Last year he had results of 14th and 23rd. In 4 of the last 5 races at Thunder Valley he’s finished in the twenties.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – High
Martin Truex Jr. had some strong performances at plate tracks last year, but overall I find him a driver who’s hard to trust on this track type. Talladega ranks as his 19th worst track and Daytona ranks as his very worst.
Last year at Daytona he finished 2nd in the Daytona 500 but crashed in July. In 2015 he had a similar performance trend where he ran well in the Daytona 500 but crashed in July. In his career at Daytona he’s only finished in the top ten three times and all of them were in the Daytona 500.
At Talladega last season he finished 13th in the spring but had an engine failure in the fall while he was running well. In 2015 at that wild card venue he swept the top ten with results of 5th and 7th.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Martin Truex Jr. is a strong performer at road courses. At both tracks he’s capable of competing for the win.
At Sonoma he’s a past champion who’s run well on a yearly basis despite having a few misleading results. Last year he finished 5th.
Watkins Glen statistically ranks as his 3rd best overall track. Last year he finished 7th but it should be noted he was better than his result but was turned at the end. His overall Watkins Glen average finish is 13.1.
