Kyle Larson 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Kyle Larson 2016 Stats : Points Finish 9th, 1 Win, 10 Top Fives, 15 Top Tens, 14.7 Average Finish, 13.8 Average Running Position, 379 Laps Led
Strengths – Kyle Larson is a very capable driver on many different track types. In 2017 look for him to be at his best at intermediate tracks, big flat tracks and Bristol.
Weaknesses – Kyle Larson had a successful season at plate tracks in 2016, but I still think he’s a high risk prospect at those venues.
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Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – High
Kyle Larson is a strong performer at intermediate tracks. Look for him to be at his best on this track type at venues where the high-line comes into play. When it comes to running that groove he’s proven himself to be one of the premiere drivers.
Last year on this track type Kyle Larson scored the 15th most points and reached victory lane for the first time in his career (Michigan). He had 6 top fives, but it should be noted those were also his only top tens.
Larson’s biggest draw back at intermediate tracks is his consistency. Last year at these venues he finished outside the top fifteen nearly half the time. For him to become an elite talent on this track type he needs to do better than that.
In 2017 I expect Larson to have a strong season at intermediate tracks. I think the new rules package is made for drivers like him. Last year in “Lowest Down Force” races he scored the 3rd most points and raced his way to victory lane in the August Michigan race.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – High
Kyle Larson is a good flat track driver. Last year on this track type he was a solid performer. He scored the 6th most points and only once finished lower than 12th.
Statistically Indy is tied for his best track. His average finish there is 7.0. So far he’s 3 of 3 in terms of finishing in the top ten. Last year he finished 5th.
Pocono ranks as his 4th best overall track and his average finish is 8.8. In all of his starts he’s finished between 5th and 12th. Last year he had results of 6th and 11th.
At Phoenix he’s been a pretty good performer. In 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished in the top 13. Last year he had results of 3rd and 12th.
Last fall at New Hampshire he finished 10th. In the two races prior to that he finished 17th. In his first two New Hampshire races he had finishes of 2nd and 3rd.
Read our Jamie McMurray 2017 Fantasy Preview
Short Track Fantasy Value – High
Kyle Larson shouldn’t be overlooked at short tracks. At all three venues he’s capable of coming home with good results.
Bristol is arguably his best short track. He’s competed for wins there but in the last three races he’s had misleading results. Last year he had top five potential in both races until trouble struck. I wouldn’t be surprised if he can sneak in a win there.
At Richmond he’s been a solid competitor throughout his career. His overall average finish is 11.3. Last fall he was a threat to win and when the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd. In his other five RIR races he’s finished between 11th and 16th.
In 2016 he had his best year at Martinsville and recorded his two best results. In the spring he finished 3rd, and in the fall he finished 14th. Prior to last year his track record was really bad at NASCAR’s oldest track.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – Medium High
Kyle Larson had a career year at plate tracks in 2016. He scored the 7th most points and in 3 of the 4 races he finished in either 6th or 7th. From past season’s on this track type I will note I have trust issues with him.
Last season he was a big surprise at Daytona. He finished 7th in the Daytona 500 and 6th in July. In his four Daytona races prior to that he finished 34th or worse.
At Talladega he has two top tens on his resume. He finished 6th last fall, and 9th in his first start in spring 2014. In his middle four starts he had a 28th place average finish.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – High
Kyle Larson is a good driver at road courses. He has solid fantasy potential at both venues and has proven himself capable of coming home with a good finish.
At Watkins Glen he’s been a strong performer. Last year he had top five potential but was wrecked coming to the finish line and as a result he finished 29th. In his first two Watkins Glen races he had results of 12th and 4th.
At Sonoma he’s also had a level of success. Last year he finished 12th. In 2015 he finished 15th. In his first start in 2014 he had top ten potential but finished 28th after having power steering problems.
