Kurt Busch 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Kurt Busch 2016 Stats : Points Finish 7th, 1 Win, 9 Top Fives, 21 Top Tens, 12.0 Average Finish, 12.1 Average Running Position, 238 Laps Led
Strengths – Kurt Busch is a talented driver across many different track types. He’s capable of competing for a top ten at any track on the schedule.
Weaknesses – Consistency became an issue for Kurt Busch in 2016. He didn’t do a lot of wrecking or finding trouble on the track, but from July to the conclusion of the season he had zero back to back top tens.
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Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – High
Kurt Busch should have a solid season at intermediate tracks in 2017. He’s a talented driver and in 3 of the last 4 seasons on this track type he’s ranked between being the 9th to 10th best driver in terms of points accumulated. In 2017 I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish around that range again. Last year at these venues he scored the 10th most points and had a 12.2 average finish.
It should be noted that on this track type in 2016 his performance level dropped off around the midway point. In only 1 of the last 8 races at these venues did he finish in the top ten. His typical good finish at these venues during the second half of the season was a result in the low-teens. I think the drop off in performance can likely be traced to Hendrick Motorsports taking away their notebook.
There’s one big question regarding Kurt Busch at intermediate tracks in 2016, what will be the impact of a change of manufacturer be? From a short term perspective I’m viewing it as a negative.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – High
Pocono is Kurt Busch’s best flat track. Last spring he raced his way to victory lane. In the August event he finished 10th. Since 2011 he’s only twice finished outside the top 13. In his career at Pocono he has three wins and has finished in the top five 42% percent of the time, and in the top ten 58% percent of the time.
Indy is the other big flat track on the schedule and last summer he finished 16th. In 2015 he finished 8th.
At New Hampshire he’s run well even though he has a few recent misleading results. Last fall he finished 5th. In the July race he was top ten good but had problems late that led to a 22nd place finish. In fall 2015 he was running in 5th on the last lap but ran out of gas which led to his 22nd place result. In the event prior to that he finished 10th.
At Phoenix he’s been one of the most consistent drivers. Over the last five races he’s finished between 5th and 7th. Last year he had results of 5th and 6th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – High
Kurt Busch is a strong performer at short tracks. Between the three Richmond has been his best venue. In 4 of the last 5 races there he’s finished in the top ten. Last year he swept the top ten with results of 8th and 10th.
At Bristol last August he wrecked and finished 38th. It should be noted at the time of his wreck he was battling for the lead. In the spring race he finished 3rd. Since August 2014 minus August 2016 he has a 9.25 average finish.
Martinsville statistically ranks as his worst track. He’s won there twice but it should be noted his spring 2014 win is his only top ten since 2005. Last year he had results of 13th and 22nd. This upcoming season I think his team’s non-affiliation with Hendrick Motorsports could hurt him there.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
For many years I’ve hailed Kurt Busch as the best plate racer who’s never won on this track type. At this point I’m thinking he’ll never win, but that doesn’t mean you should avoid him.
Last year on this track type he had a strong season. If Joey Logano didn’t wreck him at Daytona in July in the closing laps he would’ve been a perfect 4 for 4 in terms of finishing in the top ten and could’ve potentially been the top scoring plate driver.
Last summer at Daytona he was top five good but Logano wrecked him late which led to his 23rd place finish. In the season opening Daytona 500 he finished 10th. In 2015 he swept the top ten with results of 3rd and 5th.
Talladega has been a good track for Busch. Last year he swept the top ten with results of 4th and 8th. Over the last five Talladega races he’s finished in the top 12 every race and has an 8.2 average finish.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Elite
On a year to year basis Kurt Busch ranks as one of the best road course racers in NASCAR. Last year on this track type he scored the 9th most points and had a 10.5 average finish. In the three prior seasons on this track type he scored the 4th most points.
At Sonoma he’s a former champion and hasn’t finished lower than 12th since his 2011 win. Last season he finished 10th. Over the last six races his 5.3 average finish ranks as the best in the series.
Last season at Watkins Glen he finished 11th. Over the last four races there his 7.0 average finish ranks as the second best.
