Denny Hamlin 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
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Denny Hamlin 2016 Stats : Points Finish 6th, 3 Wins, 12 Top Fives, 22 Top Tens, 11.8 Average Finish, 10.4 Average Running Position, 524 Laps Led
Strengths – Denny Hamlin is a strong driver on many different track types. In 2017 look for him to be at his best at short tracks, flat tracks, plate tracks and worn out intermediate tracks.
Weaknesses – Nobody was better than Denny Hamlin at road courses last year, that said he needs to be approached with caution when picking him.
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Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – High
Denny Hamlin is a strong performer at intermediate tracks, but I would stop short of calling him elite. He\’s simply not on par with some of the best of the best on this track type.
Last year at intermediate tracks Hamlin scored the 13th most points and had a 13.9 average finish. Since 2011 on this track type minus 2013 when he had health issues he\’s scored between the 7th to 14th most points.
In 2016 in only 3 of the 17 races did he finish in the top five. His top ten finish percentage was 53% percent. To be considered an elite driver you need better fantasy production than that.
In 2017 I expect him to have a good year. I think the new rules package that will come into place will be beneficial for him. He often drives at his best when the level of difficulty is high and Joe Gibbs Racing does a good job at adapting to rules changes quicker than others.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – High
Denny Hamlin is a strong flat track driver. Last year on this track type he scored the 4th most points and finished in the top ten 71% percent of the time. I would say he has a \”high-high\” fantasy value, but is short of elite.
His best recent flat track is Indy. In 4 of the last 5 races there he\’s finished between 3rd and 6th. Last year he finished 4th.
At Pocono he\’s always a popular option but I would say he\’s overrated because people have such lofty expectations. He hasn\’t been a contender to win in a long time. Last year he had results of 7th and 14th.
At Phoenix he\’s been solid in recent seasons. Last year he swept the top ten with results of 3rd and 7th. In 4 of the last 5 Phoenix races he\’s finished in the top ten.
At New Hampshire he finished 9th and 15th last year. Over the last four races he has a 10th place average finish.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Elite
I really like Denny Hamlin at short tracks. At all three venues he has the talent to reach victory lane.
Martinsville is his best short track. In 3 of the last 4 races he\’s finished in the top three. Last fall he finished 3rd and led 48 laps. In spring 2016 he was top five good but wrecked. In 2015 he had results of 1st and 3rd.
Richmond is Hamlin\’s home track and last fall he started on the pole, finished 1st and led 189 laps. In the two races prior to that he finished 6th.
At Bristol he\’s been good. In the last two August events he finished 3rd. Last spring he finished a misleading 20th after having multiple problems in the race.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Denny Hamlin will be a popular fantasy NASCAR pick at plate tracks. He\’s a former winner at both venues and on a year to year basis he ranks as one of the best. Over the last three seasons on this track type he\’s ranked in the top five in terms of points accumulation. That shows that he\’s been an effective option and has done a good job avoiding trouble on the track. Since 2011 he\’s only once ranked outside the top ten in terms of points accumulated on this track type.
Last year at Daytona Hamlin raced his way to victory lane in the 500 and finished 17th in the summer. His 17th in July snapped a five race streak of finishing 6th or better. It should be noted in that race he had a late free fall in the running order.
At Talladega Hamlin has had some bad luck recently but when he avoids trouble he finishes well. Last fall he finished 3rd and led 12 laps. In spring 2016 he wrecked. In spring 2014 Hamlin won at Talladega.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – High
Last year Denny Hamlin had a career year at road courses. He scored the most points in the series and had results of 1st and 2nd. I found it extremely surprising because his recent track record at both venues is horrendous. In the five prior seasons at road courses he never scored better than the 18th most points.
At Watkins Glen in August he raced his way to victory lane. In the six prior Watkins Glen races he finished 19th or worse.
His recent track record at Sonoma is pretty similar. Last summer he finished 2nd and led 33 laps. In the six Sonoma races prior to that event he finished 18th or worse.
Although he had such a successful 2016 on this track type I think he should be approached with caution.
