Dover Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be making his Dover farewell and on Sunday if he’s a mid-teens driver I would be happy. Performance wise that’s really how he stacks against the competition on a good day this year. This spring I thought he was a mid to high-teens driver. When the checkered flag waved he finished 11th, had a 14th place average running position and earned the 15th best driver rating. Keep in mind the attrition rate was sky high so that benefited him. Last fall Earnhardt Jr. missed the race due to injury. In spring 2016 he was caught up in a wreck and finished 32nd. Performance wise if he didn’t have problems he was likely low-double digits good. In fall 2015 he needed to have a good afternoon because of his point’s situation and he had a clutch performance. When the checkered flag waved he finished 3rd, earned the 5th best driver rating and had a 10th place average running position. (Yahoo B Driver)

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Aric Almirola – Dover has been a good track for Aric Almirola and he’s even called it his favorite track in the past. At Dover he has a 16.2 average finish and has typically run well by his standards. From a performance perspective I think I would write him down for a mid-teens to high-teens finish. This spring he missed the race due to injury. Last fall he didn’t have a bad showing. He was having a down year but he escaped with a 16th place finish. Additionally in the race he earned the 14th best driver rating and had an 18th place average running position. In spring 2016 he was likely about high-teens good but his race wasn’t incident free. His first problem was when he had a cut tire from contact with Tony Stewart that dropped him from 19th to two laps down in 28th. He recovered from that in time with cautions, but near the end he was caught up in the “Big One” which led to his 31st place finish. In 2015 he had a great season scoring the 2nd most points and was one of two drivers who finished in the top five both races. In fall 2015 he had a very solid showing and walked away with a slightly misleading 5th place result because of a late caution. Performance wise he was really about 12th place good. In spring 2015 he also finished 5th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Paul Menard – Paul Menard has had a decent amount of measured success at Dover. In 4 of the 7 races since 2014 he’s finished in the top 16. This spring he was a high-teens driver “Performance Wise.” I will note he did catch a lucky break which got him in the top ten in the last quarter of the race but with 57 laps to go he wrecked which led to his 33rd place finish. Last fall there was nothing special about his performance and he was a low-twenties driver. He finished 22nd and had a 21st place average running position. In spring 2016 he didn’t have a great car but he dodged the carnage and came home with an 11th place finish. Performance wise if attrition didn’t enter the equation he was likely about 20th place good. His average running position last spring was 21st. On Sunday I would look for him to be a high-teens driver. (Yahoo B Driver)

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