Dover Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions

Races at Dover always seem to be pretty cut and dry from a Fantasy NASCAR perspective, as drivers that run well at this 1-mile concrete oval tend to finish up front in both races that we run here per season. Just last year, four drivers swept the top 5 in both races, those being Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex, Jr., and Chase Elliott.

Kevin Harvick will start from the front row for the second week in a row, but it will be Kyle Larson that leads the field to the green for Sunday’s AAA 400. The full starting lineup for Sunday’s race at Dover can be found by clicking here. There were two practice sessions on Saturday, and it was noted that the first one in the morning was most like the track conditions we should have for the race. You can see those speeds here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Our in-depth practice notes for each of those sessions can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.

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Final Top 25 Rankings for Dover

1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 2nd – DraftKings Price: $11,000 – FanDuel Price: $12,100
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

The AAA 400 should be a fun race to watch on Sunday, as there are four great cars starting up front along with a bunch of very good cars right behind them. It’s hard to have a clear #1 dominator car heading into Sunday’s race but Kevin Harvick’s #4 Ford has to definitely be a part of the conversation; “Happy” looked incredibly smooth (and fast) during Practice #2 on Saturday morning, recording the 6th-fastest lap while ending up 3rd in ten-lap average, and then during Happy Hour Harvick was 5th on both of those two charts. This #4 team hasn’t quite really contended for a win since Texas back in early April, but that should change this weekend. Harvick won here at Dover back in 2015, and although he hasn’t led any laps here over the last three events, he has led 786 laps over the last seven. Any time the #4 Ford starts up front, the competition needs to be concerned, and this weekend is no different.

2. Chase Elliott – Starts 6th – DraftKings Price: $9,300 – FanDuel Price: $11,500
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

There are three tracks that Chase Elliott are insanely good at: Chicagoland, Dover, and Michigan. His career average finish at each of those tracks is 2.5, 3.2, and 3.5, and while the sample size is relatively small, he does have four starts at Dover and Michigan and two attempts at Chicagoland. Looking specifically at this season, the Hendrick Motorsports teams are very close to turning things up a notch–remember, we usually see a shift around the Coca-Cola 600–and this could be the weekend that Elliott finally breaks through with a win. This #9 team is coming off of a 3rd-place finish at Talladega last weekend, and that followed a runner-up finish at Richmond two weeks ago. Chase qualified 6th for this weekend’s AAA 400 at Dover, and followed that up with a couple of solid practice sessions on Saturday; the #9 Chevrolet ranked 4th-fastest with the 8th-best ten-lap average in Practice #2 before winding up 2nd and 7th on those two charts in Happy Hour, respectively. Elliott isn’t going to go out and lead a bunch of laps here on Sunday afternoon, but he should be in or near the top 5 all day and be around at the end to make a move and possibly get to victory lane.

3. Kyle Busch – Starts 4th – DraftKings Price: $11,600 – FanDuel Price: $12,700
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Kyle Busch is the most recent race winner here at Dover International Speedway and will be a contender here on Sunday as well. Rowdy didn’t end up in victory lane at Talladega last weekend but now that we’re back on a “normal” track, you can’t forget that this #18 team has won three of the last four Cup Series races overall and has just one finish worse than 3rd since February (their 13th at Talladega last weekend). As mentioned before, Rowdy won here at Dover last fall, but what’s interesting is that he has struggled here in the spring over the last four seasons–to the tune of 107 total laps led and finishes of 16th, 30th, 36th, and 42nd. Now, on the flip side, Kyle has ended up 1st, 2nd, 2nd, and 10th in the last four fall races, so he obviously knows how to get around this track. Additionally, Rowdy was going through a very similar ‘streak’ at Bristol coming into this season, and we all know how that turned out last month. When it came to practice speeds on Saturday, the #18 Toyota was 15th-fastest in Practice #2 and 2nd-fastest in Happy Hour while ending up 10th and 2nd on the two ten-lap average charts (respectively).