Bristol Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1) Kyle Busch (Starting – 3rd)
Bristol Fantasy Spin – To win at Bristol, drivers will need to beat Kyle Busch. He’s a seven-time winner who has back to back wins at “Thunder Valley.” He’s performed at an extremely high-level and his track prowess is second to none. I will note Bristol has been somewhat of a trouble spot on the schedule for Busch recently outside of the last two races. Fantasy NASCAR is all about “what have you done lately”, and in the last two races here he’s been stellar. Over the last two combined races he has the best driver rating, the best average running position (3.5) and has led 273 laps. In practice, Busch had a great car and showed a lot of speed running the high-line. Between the two practice sessions his ten lap averages ranked as the 2nd and 6th best. His 15 lap average in Happy Hour ranked as the 7th best. If Busch has an incident free race on Saturday night I would look for him to finish in the top five and be a serious threat to win.
Bristol Track History – Kyle Busch has back to back wins at Bristol, but there is risk associated with him. In 5 of the last 8 races he’s finished 29th or worse. This spring at Bristol, Busch had a great car and raced his way to victory lane after making a late pass during the restart. If that late caution didn’t come out he likely would’ve finished 2nd. In the race he led 117 laps, earned the 2nd best driver rating and had a 4th place average running position. Last summer he had a great performance en route to victory lane. In addition to winning he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 156 laps. Additionally, he won Stage #1 and probably would’ve won Stage #2 if there wasn’t a late caution that allowed others to use pit strategy. In many of the Bristol races prior to that he was top five good but had a misleading result. In spring 2017 he looked top ten good but had multiple cut tires which led to his 35th place finish. In summer 2016 he led over half the race (256 laps) and had the dominant car but his track bar broke on lap 358 and that led to him wrecking (finished 38th). In spring 2016 he had top five potential but he got into the wall a few times and was also spun.
DraftKings $12,300 / FanDuel $13,500
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2) Kyle Larson (Starting – 1st)
Bristol Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson has thrived at Bristol and on Saturday night I would look for him to finish in the top five and compete for the win. He’s run extremely well here and when it comes to running the high-line nobody has been better. Since 2017 at Thunder Valley he has the best driver rating, the best average running position (4.0), has led the most laps (472) and has a 5.7 average finish. This spring I thought he had the best car but victory lane eluded him following a late caution. In practice, Kyle Larson was impressive running the high-line. In Happy Hour he had the best 15 lap average and the best ten lap average.
Bristol Track History – Bristol has been a great track for Kyle Larson. This spring nobody was better than him and if there wasn’t a late caution he was a lock to win. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the best driver rating, led 200 laps, had a 3rd place average running position and finished 5th in the first two Stages. What makes that even more impressive is that on lap 177 he spun while leading. Last summer, He earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position, finished 9th and led 70 laps. Additionally, he finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 6th in Stage #2. In spring 2017 he was a factor to win. In that event he led a race high 202 laps, had a 4th place average running position and finished 6th. At the start of the race his car was in a league of its own, but his team didn’t keep up with adjustments. In the three Bristol races prior to that he had top five potential but walked away with misleading results.
DraftKings $11,400 / FanDuel $12,000
3) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 6th)
Bristol Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be a factor at Bristol. On Saturday night I think he’ll finish in the top five and be in the mix for the win. At Bristol he’s a recent winner who has a series best 6 straight top tens. Over those six combined events he has the best driver rating, the best average finish (4.7) and the best average running position (8.0). One attribute I like about Harvick is how well the #4 team is performing. Their fresh off a win and over the last five races he’s scored the most points and has a 4.2 average finish. In Happy Hour, Harvick had the 6th best ten lap average.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol, Kevin Harvick has performed at a high-level. He’s a two-time winner who’s recently been one of the best as you read above. This spring he started deep in the field but raced his way up to a 7th place finish. Additionally, he earned the 10th best driver rating and had a 12th place average running position. Last summer he was solid. He finished 8th, earned the 5th best driver rating and had a 10th place average running position. In spring 2017 he ran well. He finished 3rd, earned the 5th best driver rating and led 14 laps. In summer 2016 he raced his way to victory lane and dominated the last quarter of the race. In addition to finishing first he earned the best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and led 128 laps. In the two races prior to that he finished 7th and 2nd.
DraftKings $12,000 / FanDuel $13,000
