Ty Dillon 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2019 Stats: Points Finish 24th, 0 Wins, 1 Top Five, 3 Top Tens, 20.6 Average Finish, 23.0 Average Running Position, 14 Laps Led, 57.17 Driver Rating
Strengths:
In 2020, Ty Dillon’s fantasy value will be at its highest at superspeedways. Last season, Dillon only had three top tens and they all came on this track type.
Weaknesses:
The #13 team lacks outright speed and outside of places where the attrition rate gets high, his fantasy prospects aren’t very good unless you’re cool with a high-teens finish as a good day.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – C
Intermediate tracks which comprise nearly half the schedule are a fundamental weakness for Ty Dillon. In 2019 over the 17 combined races on this track type he had a 23.1 average finish and a 24.4 average running position. A good day for him at these venues was a high-teens result, a typical day was a low to mid-twenties finish.
In 2020, I really don’t see any reason to expect an uptick in performance from Dillon and it’s best to keep expectations low. He’ll likely sneak in one or two unusually good results (fool’s gold finish), but on a weekly basis I would view him as a low to mid-twenties driver.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – C+
Ty Dillon had a few respectable results at flat tracks in 2019 and in half the races he finished in the top 20. Over the combined events his average finish was 20.9.
Last year at the shorter-flat tracks, Dillon had a 19.6 average finish. Over the five races he finished between 15th to 26th every race. In 2020 on this sub-track type I would view him as a high-teens driver on a weekly basis. Of the three shorter-flat tracks, I like Dillon the most at Phoenix. His average finish there is 19.1 and in 6 of the last 7 races there he’s finished between 11th to 20th. At New Hampshire his average finish is 19.3 and he’s finished between 16th to 23rd there in all four of his races. At Richmond, Dillon’s average finish is 23.8 and it’s important to note he’s never finished better than 20th there.
I don’t see much upside in Ty Dillon at the bigger flat tracks. He finished 13th last year at Indy, but with so many drivers have problems I have a hard time reading into that result. In his other two Indy races he has results of 19th and 21st. At Pocono, Dillon doesn’t have a single good race on his resume and his average finish is 22.1. Last year he had a dreadful season and had results of 27th and 29th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – C+
At short tracks, I don’t think Ty Dillon has a lot of upside unless the attrition rate gets high. At all three I would view him as a high-teens to low-twenties driver.
Martinsville is Dillon’s most likely place to achieve success at short tracks. He finished 24th last fall and in the two races prior to that he had results of 13th and 15th. Overall at the “Paper Clip” his average finish is 21.0
At Richmond, Dillon has never finished better than 20th. His average finish is 23.8 and all six of his results are between 20th to 28th. Last year he had finishes of 21st and 26th.
At Bristol, Dillon has a 22.9 average finish and minus an accident in summer 2017 all of his results are between 15th to 28th. Last year his results were 15th and 20th.
Superspeedway Track Fantasy Value – B
Superspeedway racing is a strength for Ty Dillon and if you’re looking to pick him, do it at these venues. Since 2017 on this track type by means of average finish, they rank as his best (Talladega – 13.5 avg. finish) and 2nd best (Daytona – 16.8 avg. finish) track.
Last year at superspeedways, all three of Ty Dillon’s top tens for the season came on this track type and over the combined races his 9.3 average finish ranked as the 2nd best.
At Daytona, Dillon currently has three straight top tens and over those events his results are 4th, 6th and 6th.
At Talladega, Dillon has finished between 10th to 17th over his combined six races. Last year his results were 10th (fall) and 17th (spring). In 2018 he had a pair of 15th place finishes. In 2017 his results were 11th and 13th.
Road Course Fantasy Value – C
Turning left and right hasn’t been a strong suite for Ty Dillon and on this track type he’s 2 for 5 in terms of finishing in the top 20. In 2019 over the three combined races his average finish was 24th.
The Charlotte Roval ranks as his best road course. He finished 15th last year and 22nd in 2018.
At Watkins Glen his average finish is 24.0. I’ll note he’s finished worse in each new race there. In 2019 he finished 30th. In the two races prior to that he had results of 23rd and 19th.
At Sonoma, he’s struggled and his combined average finish is 29.3 which ranks as his worst of the three road courses. Last year he finished 27th.
