Daytona Road Course Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR is heading back to Daytona! Not the oval, the road course! When the road course was first visited last summer it represented a great unknown. NASCAR never raced there previously, and it was also a surprise mid-season entry on the 2020 schedule.
Now we have two races of Daytona Road Course data. There’s last years race, and then just last week half the field raced there in the Busch Clash (Scouting Report – 2020, Scouting Report – 2021 Busch Clash). Knowing track history is definitely key!
The starting lineup for the Daytona Road Course will have familiar faces on the front row. Defending winner Chase Elliott will start on the pole, and alongside him will be Daytona 500 winner Michael McDowell. Starting up front last summer proved to be pretty important and 8 of the top 9 finishers started in the top 13. Here’s the STARTING LINEUP for Sunday.
Final Top 25 Rankings For The Daytona Road Course (and content on all forty!)
1. Chase Elliott (Starting – 1st / DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $14,000)
Defending Daytona Road Course winner, Chase Elliott is a super-elite road course racer and on Sunday the road to victory lane goes through him. Elliott easily raced his way to victory lane last summer, and currently Elliott has 4 straight road course wins. Over those four combined races, Elliott led or was tied for leading the most laps in every single race. With Elliott starting on the pole, you can be confident he’ll lead a lot on Sunday. Last summer at the Daytona Road Course en route to victory lane, Elliott had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best average running position (3.2), the best driver rating, led the most laps (34, 52.3% of the race), ran the most Fastest Laps (18) and ranked as the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. If there wasn’t a late caution, Elliott would’ve won the race by a huge margin. With 11 laps to go before the final caution came out, Elliott had a 10.5 second lead over second place Denny Hamlin. In the Daytona Busch Clash last Tuesday night, Elliott started in the rear of the field and almost raced his way to victory lane after using late pit strategy (didn’t pit during the final caution with 7 laps to go which got him up to the lead from 3rd). In the race, Elliott finished 2nd, led 4 laps, ranked as the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking. In the final segment of the race, Elliott was at his best and ranked as the 2nd fastest driver on the track. That’s impressive when you consider Elliott was on old tires in that portion of the race, when nearly everyone else had new tires.
2. Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 19th / DraftKings $11,000 / FanDuel $13,500)
Martin Truex Jr. will be tough to beat at the Daytona Road Course, despite starting 19th. Truex is an elite road course racer and is the most recent driver on this track type to win who isn’t named Chase Elliott (Sonoma 2019). At the Daytona Road Course, Truex Jr. has been exceptional. In just 92 laps, he’s managed to have problems while leading three-times! I’m truly impressed by that because he’s managed to drive up through the field with ease a couple of times to accomplish that. Last year at the Daytona Road Course, Truex had a great performance and if he didn’t get a speeding penalty while leading late in Stage #2, there’s a great chance he would’ve been the driver to beat. In the race, Truex finished 3rd, led 10 laps, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and in 3 of the 4 segments he ranked as the fastest driver on the track. The lone segment he wasn’t the fastest was segment #3, and that’s when he got his speeding penalty which put him back in traffic. In terms of speed late in a run, Truex ranked #1. I’ll also note, if Truex didn’t pit late in Stage #1 he would’ve won that Stage. Last Tuesday night in the Daytona Busch Clash, Truex was strong. In the race he started in 18th and drove up through the field with ease. On lap 14 he took the lead, but then shortly after that he made a mental mistake and missed the chicane which put him in the back. That wasn’t so much of a problem for him. He drove up through the field again, but then wrecked while leading with 8 laps to go in the “bus stop” turn which marked the end of his race and led to a 21st place finish. At road courses in points paying races since Watkins Glen 2017, Truex Jr. has 3 wins, a 4.2 average finish, 6 results in the top 3 and the only time he’s finished outside the top 7 is when Jimmie Johnson spun him out in the final turn at the Charlotte Roval while leading in 2018!
Further Recommended Reading: Daytona Road Course Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Daytona Road Course Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Daytona Road Course Playability Value Chart
3. Denny Hamlin (Starting – 4th / DraftKings $9,800 / FanDuel $12,000)
Denny Hamlin should be near the top of your fantasy NASCAR radar for the Daytona Road Course. Hamlin had a great showing in the Busch Clash last Tuesday, and was strong last summer in the Daytona Road Course’s debut. Last summer at the Daytona Road Course, Hamlin was a standout performer. In the race, Hamlin finished 2nd, won Stage #2, led 16 laps and had a 5th place average running position. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin ranked as the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and his Total Speed Ranking was the 3rd best. In 3 of the 4 segments he ranked in the top 3 in terms of speed, and in the 4th quarter when the trophy was on the line he ranked as the 2nd fastest. In the Daytona Busch Clash last Tuesday night, Hamlin had a great showing but finished an asterisk mark 6th. In the race, Hamlin had the best driver rating, led a race high 21 laps and had the best Total Speed Ranking. “Performance Wise”, Hamlin arguably had the 2nd best car but after Truex Jr. wrecked he pitted during the final caution which dropped him back to about 10th with just a handful of laps remaining. I’ll note at the moment of the Truex caution, Hamlin was in 3rd because Ryan Blaney just got around him. Earlier that lap though, Hamlin was leading.
4. Kyle Busch (Starting – 14th / DraftKings $10,000 / FanDuel $12,500)
Kyle Busch, the Busch Clash winner will be a contender at the Daytona Road Course. He’s one of the best road course racers in NASCAR and he’ll be entering the event with a lot of confidence after his early season “W.” In the Busch Clash, Busch obviously didn’t have the best car, but he certainly wasn’t a slouch. In the race he had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking, ranked as the 3rd Fastest Driver over the last two segments and ranked as the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. With 7 laps to go before the final round of pit stops under yellow he was running in 4th. Last summer at the Daytona Road Course, Busch had an afternoon he won’t be forgetting. “Performance Wise”, Busch clearly had potential, but he had problems early and often which led to a dismal 37th place result. That said, Busch had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and in 3 of the 4 quarters he ranked in the top 4 in terms of speed. In the race, Busch took the lead on lap 2, but in the process he flat spotted his tires which led to an unexpected pit stop on lap 5 which dropped him back to 34th. Then around lap 22, Busch had a single car spin. Later with 17 laps to go during his pit stop, Busch had brake rotor issues which led to the #18 getting pushed behind the wall. You would think there couldn’t be more problems, but there was. Busch later returned to the track only to demolish the #18 which brought out the final caution.
5. Joey Logano (Starting – 11th / DraftKings $9,400 / FanDuel $10,700)
Joey Logano is a strong road course racer who’ll be a factor at the Daytona Road Course. Logano’s a perfect 4 for 4 at “Rovals” in terms of finishing in the top ten and his combined average finish is 7.75. At the Daytona Road Course, Logano was solid last summer, and in the Busch Clash he also ran well. Last summer at the Daytona Road Course, Logano finished 9th, had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 7th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. With 11 laps to go before the final caution came out, Logano was running in 7th. Last Tuesday in the Busch Clash, Logano got some damage when he ran over a chicane early, but that didn’t seem to slow him down. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 3rd, ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and ranked as the 6th and 5th quickest driver over the final two segments. I will note, Logano did use pit strategy late by not pitting during the final caution which got him up to 2nd. With 7 laps to go prior to the last round of pit stops under yellow he was back in 9th. Last fall at the Charlotte Roval, Logano finished 2nd.
6. Kyle Larson (Starting – 8th / DraftKings $8,300 / FanDuel $9,300)
Kyle Larson is an extremely capable road course racer. He’ll be a rookie at the Daytona Road Course, but I think he’ll be a quick learner. Back in 2018 when the first race was held at the Charlotte Roval (most similar track), Larson led 47 laps and ranked as one of the best, but finished 25th after getting collected in the late mayhem while running in the top five. In 2019 at road courses, Larson had results of 10th (Sonoma), 8th (Watkins Glen) and 13th (Charlotte Roval). Larson’s in better equipment then ever before and will have access to Chase Elliott’s setup, so I have high expectations. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top ten contender.
7. Ryan Blaney (Starting – 27th / DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $12,700)
Ryan Blaney will be a driver to be reckoned with at the Daytona Road Course. Blaney had a great performance last Tuesday in the Busch Clash, and in 4 of the last 5 road course races he’s finished between 3rd to 8th. Unfortunately, Blaney’s lone result outside of that range happened last summer at the Daytona Road Course and when that race reached its conclusion he finished 31st. That said, Blaney’s result does a poor job reflecting his level of performance. In that race, Blaney finished 3rd in Stage #2, had a 14.4 average running position, the 14th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 15th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. With 20 laps to go he was running in 13th, but then shortly after that (16 laps to go) during green flag pit stops he was caught speeding on pit road which dropped him deep in the field. Then to cap off his afternoon, Blaney missed the front stretch chicane on the final lap. Last Tuesday in the Daytona Busch Clash, Blaney nearly raced his way to victory lane, but crashed while leading in the last turn after contact from Chase Elliott which led to his asterisk mark 13th place finish. In the race, Blaney had the fastest car in segments 3 and 4 which is big because at that point teams had time to tune their cars. One key moment that everyone is focused on from the race is the Truex wreck. Right before that take note, Blaney actually passed Denny Hamlin for 2nd.
8. Brad Keselowksi (Starting – 15th / DraftKings $9,600 / FanDuel $10,000)
Brad Keselowski didn’t have an inspiring performance last summer at the Daytona Road Course, but he did finish 13th. That’s a little surprising when you take into account he had multiple problems. In the race, Keselowski had a 14.9 average running position, the 13th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 11th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In the Clash, Keselowski finished 17th, but that’s a misleading result. With 4 laps to go while he was running in 8th he spun in the “Bus stop” turn which dropped him in the running order. With 7 laps to go before the final round of stops under yellow he was running in 8th. In the race, Keselowski had a 7.7 average running position, the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 9th Fastest Driver Late In A Run.
9. Kevin Harvick (Starting – 5th / DraftKings $9,200 / FanDuel $11,300)
Kevin Harvick probably isn’t a big fan of the Daytona Road Course, but I wouldn’t overlook him. In just two races here, Harvick has four spins, and three of them are completely on him. Last week in the Busch Clash, Harvick had an evening he would like to forget. He spun twice, finished 15th, ranked as the 15th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 16th best Total Speed Ranking. It just wasn’t a good race, but I’m sure some lessons were learned and the #4 crew will be better prepared this next time around. Last summer at the Daytona Road Course, Harvick showed potential, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at his 17th place finish. He certainly didn’t show race winning speed, but I think he showed top ten potential prior to problems. In the race, Harvick started on the pole, led 0 laps, but then right at the start of the final Stage while running in 2nd he was spun out by Bell which flat spotted his tires and led to an unexpected pit stop. Then later on lap 42, Harvick had a single car spin and his car appeared to be stalled for a brief time before he was able to get going again. In Stage #2, Harvick finished 8th and prior to his original problem he looked top ten good, “Performance Wise.” Being good late in a run was his primary strength, and in that aspect he ranked as the 4th best.
10. William Byron (Starting – 22nd / DraftKings $8,800 / FanDuel $9,600)
William Byron is a sneaky good road course racer who shouldn’t be overlooked. Over the last three races held on this track type, Byron has a 6.6 average finish and he’s had a result between 6th to 8th every race. Last year at the Daytona Road Course, Byron had a strong showing. In the race he finished 7th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2 and 8th overall. Additionally, Byron had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 10th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In the Daytona Busch Clash, William Byron lost a tire under caution around lap 22 which dropped him to the back, but he rebounded to finish 5th when the checkered flag waved. Byron wasn’t a driver who stayed out during the final caution so he drove hard to get his result. In terms of speed analytics, Byron ranked as the 7th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and in Segment #4 when the trophy was on the line, he ranked as the 6th fastest.
11. Alex Bowman (Starting – 36th / DraftKings $9,000 / FanDuel $9,000)
Alex Bowman is a capable road course racer who’s primed to have a solid showing, despite starting deep in the field. Since 2019 at road courses, Bowman has a 10th place average result and in 4 of the 5 races he’s finished between 8th to 14th. Last year at the Daytona Road Course, Bowman finished 12th which is a good result when you consider he had to rally to overcome a flat tire on the last lap of Stage #1. In the last quarter of the race, Bowman was clearly at his best and for that segment his Total Speed Ranking was the 8th fastest. In terms of speed late in a run, Bowman ranked as the 9th best. In the Daytona Busch Clash, Bowman was respectable. He finished 7th, had a 7.9 average running position, the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. With 7 laps to go under caution before the final round of pit stops under yellow, Bowman was running in 5th.
12. Kurt Busch (Starting – 17th / DraftKings $8,600 / FanDuel $9,000)
Kurt Busch is a solid road course racer who should have a good afternoon at the Daytona Road Course. Last summer, Busch finished 14th, had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking, ranked as the 14th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had an 8.9 average running position. In the race, Busch finished 9th in Stage #2, but over the last quarter of the race (stayed out during the Stage #2 caution) because of pit strategy he had to come in under green which put him back in the pack and he simply wasn’t at his best from that point on. With 8 laps to go before the final caution came out, Busch was running in 12th. In the Busch Clash, Kurt didn’t have a good race and finished an asterisk mark 19th. In the race, Busch had a 14.9 average running position and the 18th best Total Speed Ranking. With 4 laps to go, Busch had heavy damage to his nose and came to pit road. With 7 laps to go before the final pit cycle under yellow, Busch was running in 7th. I’ll also note, Busch had problems earlier in the race and at the start of the final Stage while leading (pit strategy) he completely missed turn #1 which dropped him to the back.
13. Michael McDowell (Starting – 2nd / DraftKings $6,800 / FanDuel $6,500)
Daytona 500 winner, Michael McDowell has to be excited about the seven road course races on the 2021 schedule. Last year at the Daytona Road Course, McDowell had a great race and had a career best result on this track type. In the event he started 30th, but drove up to a 10th place finish. Additionally, McDowell ranked as the 8th Fastest Driver Late In A Run, had an 11th place average running position and had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking. Over the last three segments in terms of speed he ranked between 7th to 12th. Over the last four seasons at serpentine tracks, McDowell has finished between 10th to 18th in 7 of the 10 races. For a driver of his tier, that’s respectable. On Sunday, I would view McDowell as a low double-digit to mid-teens driver.
14. Christopher Bell (Starting – 12th / DraftKings $7,700 / FanDuel $7,600)
Christopher Bell will be flying below the radar at the Daytona Road Course. He didn’t have a rookie year to brag about on this track type and went 2 for 2 in terms of finishing between 21st and 24th. Last summer at the Daytona Road Course, Bell ran well, but finished 21st. In the race, Bell had a 15.4 average running position, would’ve finished in the top ten in the first two Stages if pit strategy didn’t come into play and his Total Speed Ranking was the 9th best, with him ranking between 5th through 10th over the first three segments (10,9,5). At the end, I don’t think Bell played the pit strategy game well and then with 8 laps to go he spun by himself. With 20 laps to go before the final pit cycle ensued, Bell was running in 7th.
15. Matt DiBenedetto (Starting – 32nd / DraftKings $8,100 / FanDuel $8,300)
Matt DiBenedetto is a skilled road course racer, but I can’t say I liked what I seen from him on this track type in 2020, and his performance in the Clash was just OK. In 2019 at road courses his average finish was 7th, last year in the #21 his average finish dipped to 18.5. In the Clash, DiBenedetto finished 10th, had an 11.3 average running position and had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking. With 7 laps to go before the final pit cycle under yellow, DiBenedetto was running in 13th. Last summer at the Daytona Road Course, DiBenedetto was mediocre in his first road course race in the #21. In the race he finished 15th, had the 16th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 19th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. At the Charlotte Roval the other road course visited in 2020, DiBenedetto finished 22nd.
16. Chase Briscoe (Starting – 18th / DraftKings $8,400 / FanDuel $8,700)
Super rookie, Chase Briscoe has upside at the Daytona Road Course. Last year in the lower series on this track type he ran well at all four venues, but had two misleading results. One incident free race he had last year was at the Indy Road Course, and at that venue he led 30 of the 62 laps and raced his way to victory lane. At Road America, his one other incident free race he finished 3rd. In 2020 at the Daytona Road Course, Briscoe led 26 laps, was leading with 10 to go, but crashed late during a wild restart and finished 29th. Last year at the Charlotte Roval, Briscoe led 23 laps but finished 18th after having problems while leading with 2 laps to go in the rain. On Sunday, don’t overlook Briscoe but to be safe I think he’s a teens driver.
17. Austin Dillon (Starting – 3rd / DraftKings $6,700 / FanDuel $5,000)
Austin Dillon has never had a top 15 finish at a road course. Yep, he’s 0 for 16. It might sound crazy, but I think there’s a chance he might just do it for the first time on Sunday. He’s starting in 3rd which is his best starting position on this track type, and he didn’t have a bad showing in the Clash. In the Clash, Dillon finished 11th, had a 12th place average running position and had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking. That said, the field was small in that race with only 21 cars. Last summer, Dillon was sidelined with Covid-19 and in his place Kaz Grala finished 7th.
18. Aric Almirola (Starting – 26th / DraftKings $7,900 / FanDuel $7,800)
Aric Almirola is a respectable road course racer. Since 2019 on this track type, Almirola has a 14.4 average finish, a 16.8 average running position and in 4 of the 5 races he’s finished between 9th to 16th. Unfortunately, Almirola’s lone result outside of that range happened last summer at the Daytona Road Course. Last year, Almirola finished 24th, but he ran better than his result but pitted near the end. In the race, Almirola had a 15.9 average running position and was running in 14th with 8 laps to go before the final caution came out. In the race, Almirola had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking, and over the four segments he ranked between 15th to 18th. In terms of speed late in a run, Almirola was the 12th best. In the Busch Clash, Almirola finished 12th, but he wasn’t that great. In the race he had a 15.9 average running position, the 19th best Total Speed Ranking and with 7 laps to go right before the final round of pit stops under yellow ensued he was back in 15th.
19. Tyler Reddick (Starting – 24th / DraftKings $7,500 / FanDuel $7,000)
Tyler Reddick was racy in the Daytona Busch Clash, and I liked what I seen from him. He raced aggressively, and showed a lot of speed. In the race he finished 4th, ranked as the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking, ranked between 3rd to 8th over the four segments in terms of speed and had a 7.8 average running position. Last summer at the Daytona Road Course, Reddick didn’t have a race to brag about and his 22nd place result is slightly better than he performed. In the race he had a 23.4 average running position, the 28th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 28th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. I’ll also note, Reddick had problems in the chicane at least once.
20. Bubba Wallace (Starting – 10th / DraftKings $6,300 / FanDuel $6,200)
Bubba Wallace will have interesting fantasy value at the Daytona Road Course. You certainly can’t say he’s a good road course racer on paper, but that might change now that he’s piloting the #23. JGR equipment ranks among the best on this track type, and that’s a luxury he’ll now benefit from. At road courses over his eight starts, Wallace is 0 for 8 in terms of cracking the top 20. Last year at the Daytona Road Course, Wallace was spun on the last lap while he was running just short of the top ten and finished 25th. That said, Wallace had a 20.4 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking for the afternoon ranked as the 24th best. With 8 laps to go before the final caution came out, Wallace was in 18th, so don’t buy into the top ten contender hype too much (stayed out during the final caution which advanced him in the running order), but he certainly wasn’t 25th place bad. On Sunday, I think there’s a good chance he’ll walk away with his best road course result.
21. Ross Chastain (Starting – 9th / DraftKings $6,500 / FanDuel $6,600)
Ross Chastain didn’t have a bad 2020 at road courses in the Xfinity Series. That said, the level of competition is a lot lower down there. In 2020 at road courses in the lower series, Chastain had results of 5th (Charlotte Roval), 6th (Indy), 7th (Road America) and then at the Daytona Road Course he crashed and finished 36th. On Sunday, I would view Chastain as about a 15th to 20th place driver.
22. Chris Buescher (Starting – 30th / DraftKings $7,200 / FanDuel $6,000)
Chris Buescher had a good performance last summer at the Daytona Road Course and finished 5th. However, that result certainly isn’t typical from him on this track type and in the other 4 races since 2019 he’s had a result between 13th to 20th. In the event last summer, Buescher had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking, but over the final quarter of the race when the finish line was in sight he was at his best and ranked as the 9th fastest. For the afternoon, Buescher’s average running position was 15.6 and over the final quarter he consistently ran around 10th. In the Busch Clash last Tuesday night, Buescher finished 16th, had an 11.3 average running position and had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking. On Sunday, I think he’s likely a mid to high-teens driver.
23. AJ Allmendinger (Starting – 34th / DraftKings $10,200 / FanDuel $12,000)
AJ Allmendinger is a strong road course racer who’ll be playing the road course ringer role on Sunday. That said, take note road course ringers often don’t have the equipment to truly compete, and that’s the boat Allmendinger is in. On Sunday he’ll be piloting the #16 that Kaz Grala drove in the Daytona 500 (didn’t end so well for him 🔥). When it comes to road course racing, there’s no doubt Allmendinger is one of the better drivers in the business. He’s a former Cup winner at Watkins Glen, and last year in the lower series he finished in the top 4 every race, won at the Charlotte Roval, finished 4th at the Daytona Road Course and had a 2.75 average finish. The main question I have about Allmendinger is his equipment, which will certainly keep him from racing against the “Big Boys.” On Sunday, I think Allmendinger has mid to high-teens potential. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes marginally better.
24. Cole Custer (Starting – 13th / DraftKings $7,000 / FanDuel $7,200)
Cole Custer didn’t have a good afternoon last summer at the Daytona Road Course and came home 22nd. In the race, Custer had a 22nd place average running position, the 19th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 21st Fastest Driver Late In A Run. The Daytona Road Course last summer marked Custer’s first career start on this track type, so I’m going to show him some leeway. In the Busch Clash, Custer finished 20th after having major brake problems, but take note at that time he was running in 7th on lap 22. At the completion of the opening Stage after lap 15 he finished 5th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings in the first two segments prior to his problem he ranked as the 12th and 10th fastest. Last fall at the Charlotte Roval, Custer finished 9th and ranked as the 12th fastest driver in the final segment.
25. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Starting – 16th / DraftKings $6,100 / FanDuel $4,500)
If you want to get out of sync with the competition for the Daytona Road Course, pick Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Road course racing has never been a strength of his, and it won’t start now. That said, Stenhouse currently has four straight results between 15th to 17th on this track type. Last summer at the Daytona Road Course, Stenhouse finished 16th, had the 18th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 20th Fastest Driver Late in A Run. In the season opening exhibition Busch Clash, Stenhouse finished 9th, had a 15.3 average running position, ranked as the 17th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking. You can get out an asterisk mark for his result though. With 7 laps to go before the final pit cycle under yellow he was back in 19th, keep in mind the field was only 21 cars.
Words On Others
Erik Jones (Starting – 37th) Erik Jones is a solid road course racer, but since he’s no longer in the #20 and now driving the #43, I think his road course racing dark horse days are over. In 2020 at road courses between the combined events, Jones had a 7th place average finish. In the Busch Clash in the #43, Jones finished 8th, had a 10.5 average running position, had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking and was running in 10th with 7 laps to go before the final pit cycle under yellow ensued. Last summer at the Daytona Road Course, Jones finished 11th, but he ran marginally better than his result. With 8 laps to go before the final caution came out he was running in 9th. During the final caution he ducked down pit road for fresh tires. From the race I’ll note he finished 10th in Stage #1, had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking, ranked as the 13th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had a 13.1 average running position. (DraftKings $7,800 / FanDuel $8,000)
Ryan Newman (Starting – 33rd) Ryan Newman doesn’t have a high fantasy ceiling at the Daytona Road Course. He didn’t run well in the Clash, and he was a dud last summer at the Daytona Road Course. In the Clash, Newman finished 14th, had a 14.9 average running position, ranked as the 18th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had a race worst Total Speed Ranking (21st). Last year at the Daytona Road Course, Newman finished 19th, had a 24.4 average running position and had the 32nd best Total Speed Ranking. Over the four quarters of the race, he was 28th or worse in every segment in terms of speed. (DraftKings $7,300 / FanDuel $6,000)
Ty Dillon (Starting – 38th) Ty Dillon will be making his season debut at the Daytona Road Course driving the Gaunt Brothers 96. Last week in the Clash when he drove the #23 he finished 18th, had a 14.1 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 17th best. What he’ll be driving on Sunday won’t be nearly as competitive. Last summer at the Daytona Road Course, Dillon finished 20th, had the 25th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 24th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Last year at the Charlotte Roval, Dillon won Stage #1, but when the checkered flag waved he finished 23rd. Since 2018 at road courses (last 8 races on this track type), Dillon has six finishes in the 20’s and his average result is 24.5. (DraftKings $5,600 / FanDuel $2,500)
Ryan Preece (Starting – 6th) Ryan Preece certainly isn’t a road course ringer and in 4 of his 5 starts on this track type he’s finished south of 21st. There’s a little glimmer of hope though. Last fall at the Charlotte Roval, the most recent road course race he cracked the top 20 for the first time and finished 14th. Over the last three races held at road courses, which were all races held at “Rovals”, Preece’s average finish is 19.3. Last year at the Daytona Road Course, Preece was a low 20’s performer. In the race he finished 23rd, had a 20th place average running position, had the 23rd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 25th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. On Sunday, look for Preece to be a low to mid-twenties driver. If things go well, he might be able to finish marginally better. (DraftKings $5,300 / FanDuel $3,500)
Daniel Suarez (Starting – 35th At the Daytona Road Course, don’t set the benchmark too high for Daniel Suarez. He’s had some great runs in the past at road courses in competitive equipment, but the jury is out in terms of how his new #99 team stacks up against the competition. “Performance Wise”, I think his new situation will be close to the #13 in terms of equipment provided, but that’s still a step up from his ride last year. In 2020 at the Daytona Road Course, Suarez finished 27th, had a 26.2 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 29th best with him getting a little slower across the four segments (28th, 29th, 30th and 31st). At the Daytona Road Course, I would look for Suarez to come home with a result in the 20’s. (DraftKings $5,700 / FanDuel $4,500)
Corey LaJoie (Starting – 7th) At the Daytona Road Course, I think you can have basement fantasy expectations for Corey LaJoie. His new ride should be slightly more competitive, but I don’t think that’s saying much. At the four road courses LaJoie has competed at in NASCAR’s top series, things have been bad and his average finish at each venue is between 27.0 and 33.5. In 2020 over the combined events held on this track type, LaJoie’s average finish was 29.5. Last year at the Daytona Road Course, LaJoie finished 32nd, but he did run better than his result. In the race his average running position was 25.7 and before he spun with 3 laps to go he was running around 17th. (DraftKings $5,000 / FanDuel $2,000)
Anthony Alfredo (Starting – 31st) Anthony Alfredo had a short Cup series debut in the Daytona 500. He completed just 14 laps before getting swept up into the “Big One” which led to his 32nd place finish. At the Daytona Road Course, Alfredo has zero starts under his belt, even in lower divisions of NASCAR. Last year in the Xfinity Series at road courses, Alfredo only made one start and it was at the Indy Road Course where he finished 20th. In the Truck Series, Alfredo doesn’t have any road course races on his resume. If he cracks the top 20, I would consider it a success. (DraftKings $5,900 / FanDuel $5,500)
Super Low Tier
Garrett Smithley (Starting – 25th) Garrett Smithley didn’t have a confidence inspiring afternoon in 2020 at the Daytona Road Course. Last year he started 36th, finished 36th, had the 35th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 33.2 average running position. Look for Smithley to finish in the 30’s. (DraftKings $4,500 / FanDuel $2,000)
Justin Haley (Starting – 20th) Justin Haley has one start on his resume at a road course in NASCAR’s top series. In 2019, Haley raced at Sonoma and came home 34th. Last year in the lower series at the Daytona Road Course, Haley had a short day and only completed 11 laps before getting sidelined which led to his 38th place finish. Last year in the lower series, Haley had problems at both “Roval” venues, but at the other two tracks he had results of 2nd (Indy Road Course) and 11th (Road America). (DraftKings $5,400 / FanDuel $4,000)
Cody Ware (Starting – 21st) Cody Ware will be making his Daytona Road Course debut on Sunday. In fact, Ware has zero “Roval” starts on his resume. In summer 2019 at Watkins Glen when Ware had his most recent road course race he finished 33rd. On this track type over his three combined starts his average finish is 35th, with all three of his results being between 33rd and 36th. (DraftKings $4,700 / FanDuel $2,000)
Josh Bilicki (Starting – 23rd) Josh Bilicki doesn’t have a Cup start under his belt at the Daytona Road Course. I guess, what could go wrong? Last year in Cup, Bilicki only made one road course start and he finished 33rd at the Charlotte Roval. In his career on this track type over his five combined starts, Bilicki’s finished between 32nd to 38th every race and has a 35th place average finish. (DraftKings $4,900 / FanDuel $2,700)
Scott Heckert (Starting – 28th) I can’t say I’ve heard this name before, but he’ll be piloting the #78 which is typically driven by BJ McLeod. Heckert has never been in a Cup car, so he could be in for a long afternoon. Heckert has the resume of a road course ringer in the lower series. Last year in the Xfinity series he raced here and finished 19th. In 2020 he also raced at Elkhart Lake and at that venue he finished 33rd. In 2019 in the Xfinity Series he had results of 17th (Mid-Ohio) and 23rd (Watkins Glen). (DraftKings $4,800 / FanDuel $2,000)
Quin Houff (Starting – 29th) Last year at road courses, Quin Houff was a high-twenties driver in both events. In 2020, Houff finished 27th at the Daytona Road Course and 28th at the Charlotte Roval. Last summer in terms of Total Speed Ranking, Houff was tied for being a race worst 38th with him being either the slowest, or the 2nd slowest driver in every segment. (DraftKings $4,600 / FanDuel $2,000)
James Davison (Starting – 39th) James Davison will be starting 39th on Sunday. Last year at the Daytona Road Course, Davison started in 38th and finished 30th. Additionally, Davison had a 31.3 average running position and ranked as the 31st Fastest Driver Late In A Run. On Sunday, look for Davison to have a similar afternoon. (DraftKings $5,200 / FanDuel $3,000)
Timmy Hill (Starting – 40th) Timmy Hill will be making his season debut and will start dead last at the Daytona Road Course. Last summer at the Daytona Road Course, Hill finished 29th, had a 30.5 average running position and had the 33rd best Total Speed Ranking. At the Charlotte Roval, the one other road course visited last year, Hill finished 38th. In his two other starts there, Hill’s results are 30th and 38th. (DraftKings $5,100 / FanDuel $2,000)
