Darlington – Goodyear 400 Betting Preview
This week will be a tough race to handicap since the Cup cars are running the 750 HP, low spoiler package. The last two years at this track, Cup cars have run the traditional intermediate package with 550 HP and large spoilers. While the change in package should help product more entertaining racing, it makes the handicapping a bit trickier as well. I’ve still got a few bets that I like. Tell me what you think on Twitter. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise stated.
Best Bet: Alex Bowman to Win 20-1 – We’re going back to the well this week, and I love almost all the Hendrick cars. This one makes the most sense of them all given his success on high wear tracks and his lengthy odds. If we look at green flag speed on high tire wear tracks since the start of 2020, Alex Bowman tops the charts. He was also Top 6 in speed at both of the high wear tracks this year. He may not have the fastest car on Sunday, but he should contend for the win and I think these odds are incredible.
XFinity Freeplay: Ty Gibbs Top 3 +180 – Ty has been nearly unstoppable this year in the ARCA and Xfinity Series. He won the Xfinity race at Daytona RC, finished 2nd and Phoenix, and 4th at Martinsville. What do all of those courses have in common with this weekend’s Darlington race? They all use the 750 HP, low spoiler package. He knows how his car will handle, and I like him to contend for the win for his fourth XF race in a row.
Christopher Bell to Win 25-1 – Listen, I understand Bell is only ranked 25th in green flag speed on high wear tracks this year. I also know that he is ranked 7th in speed on the season. We’re looking for value here and Bell at 25-1 certainly meets that criteria. He will need a clean race and a bit of luck but he won at nearly triple these odds at Daytona RC this year so I have faith in Adam Stevens and the #20 team.
William Byron to Win 18-1 – We can wrap up these next two bets together (along with Bowman) pretty easily. If you look at high wear tracks this year you see three Hendrick cars towards the top. Kurt Busch made a late green flag pit stop at Homestead which accounts for him getting the best GF speed during that race. Outside of that it’s the 5, 24, and 48 atop that list.
Hendrick Motorsports to Win 2-1 – I can’t justify betting one driver at +375 to win a Cup race so this is a bit of a catch-all. I’m confident a HMS car wins this race, and I hope it’s not Larson, but if it is, at least I will cash a bet.
Chase Elliott to Win 11-1 – Chase had a legit winning car each race here last year but continually ran into trouble. He ranked 9th, 1st, and 3rd, in green flag speed here last year. He’s ranked 4th in speed on the high wear tracks since 2020 but hasn’t been great this year. Part of that we can attribute to a blown engine at Atlanta. I still like Chase and the Hooters car to get their first win of the season on Sunday.
Kurt Busch T10 +120 2units – Kurt has been great this year on high wear tracks. Even with a late green flag pit stop at Homestead he still finished P8. He had the 4th best driver rating in that race. He also finished 4th in Stage 1 at Atlanta before being wrecked on the Stage 2 restart, ending his day. He should be an easy T10 without incident on Sunday and you can even look at his odds for a T5 +525, Stage 1 60-1 or Stage 2 winner 40-1. I am not taking those bets and wouldnt advise going more than a half unit on any of them.
Tyler Reddick to Win 44-1, T10 +135 2u – Tyler Reddick can legit win this race, but it’s the same conversation we had last week. He likes to ride the wall, and that is very risky in a Cup car. One hit on the wall and his top end speed is gone for the day. Let’s give some credit to PJ Walsh with this pick. Reddick loves this package and should do great. However, he is likely to get into the wall at least once since he has a tendency to run his car at the very extreme of looseness. I like the T10 better than the win, but both are worth a shot.
Denny Hamlin T3 +150 or better – Denny has finished T3 in half of his races this year and should’ve cashed his bet last week if not for a late trip into the wall. Lets ride again this week and hope Denny can get us a T3. I do not like this bet any worse than +150.
Chris Buescher T10 +235 DO NOT BET – I know I posted this earlier but his T10 odds last week were +425 and now he’s nearly HALF of that. No thanks. He had definitely had a good car on the intermediates this year, but these odds are way off for any value. Need +350 or better IMO to take this bet. The market has caught up to Buescher.
A few head-to-head bets that I found this morning that caught my eye, including a much better way to bet on Buescher.
Buescher > Custer -125, 2 units – Buescher has been great at intermediate tracks this year, and SHR has been abysmal everywhere. Harvick has been their only decent driver. The other three drivers are consistently running in the low 20s or high 30s, just ahead of the back markers. I love this play today.
Suarez > Custer -115 – This is more of a fade on Custer and his SHR equipment, than an endorsement of Suarez. Suarez has beaten Custer at each of the intermediate tracks we’ve visited this year and I expect him to do it again today.
Bowman > Logano +130 – This is definitely risky, but as I stated in my Bowman write up, he has been the best car at high wear tracks over the last year or so. Logano ranks 11th on that list. Additionaly, Bowman had better green flag speed at each of the three races at Darlington last year, so I like him in this matchup at plus money.
