Dover – Drydene 400 Betting Preview

We have found ourselves in a bit of a mideason lull in the betting market. Both the drivers and the books can be held responsible. Drivers like Truex, Larson, and Hamlin have been far and away the best cars as of late. The books have definitely noticed and priced them accordingly. With outright odds like Truex +375, Larson +450, and Hamlin +600 there is little to no value in betting one of the top drivers this week.

However, there is always value somewhere on the board and it’s my job to dig deep and find it. Just as handicapping any other sport, you need to find the value when certain teams are dominating and others are struggling. It may not be fun to put money on teams/drivers that are struggling, but we’re trying to find winners, not sexy bets. My strategy this week is to look at drivers who have had success at Dover in the past. I’m also looking at guys who have had good intermediate track speed this year and/or who have been trending up the last few races. Let’s get after it!

Best Bet – Cole Custer (Top 10 +425, 2 units) – You don’t have to remind me how terrible Custer (and the rest of SHR) has been this year. We are all well aware of their struggles. Custer is ranked 24th in average finish, 27th in speed at intermediates, and 26th in the points standings. What I’m getting at, is the market is at rock bottom for Custer, which means it’s time to take a flyer on him at one of his best tracks. Last year he finished 10th and 11th at Dover in two Cup races. In 2019, in an Xfinity car, he led 155 laps and finished 4th in the spring, and then won the fall race. If you’d rather take odds like these on Truex or Larson to beat every car in the field, be my guest. I’d much rather grab the value here where Custer only needs to beat 27 other drivers.