Dover – Drydene 400 Betting Preview

We have found ourselves in a bit of a mideason lull in the betting market. Both the drivers and the books can be held responsible. Drivers like Truex, Larson, and Hamlin have been far and away the best cars as of late. The books have definitely noticed and priced them accordingly. With outright odds like Truex +375, Larson +450, and Hamlin +600 there is little to no value in betting one of the top drivers this week.

However, there is always value somewhere on the board and it’s my job to dig deep and find it. Just as handicapping any other sport, you need to find the value when certain teams are dominating and others are struggling. It may not be fun to put money on teams/drivers that are struggling, but we’re trying to find winners, not sexy bets. My strategy this week is to look at drivers who have had success at Dover in the past. I’m also looking at guys who have had good intermediate track speed this year and/or who have been trending up the last few races. Let’s get after it!

Best Bet – Cole Custer (Top 10 +425, 2 units) – You don’t have to remind me how terrible Custer (and the rest of SHR) has been this year. We are all well aware of their struggles. Custer is ranked 24th in average finish, 27th in speed at intermediates, and 26th in the points standings. What I’m getting at, is the market is at rock bottom for Custer, which means it’s time to take a flyer on him at one of his best tracks. Last year he finished 10th and 11th at Dover in two Cup races. In 2019, in an Xfinity car, he led 155 laps and finished 4th in the spring, and then won the fall race. If you’d rather take odds like these on Truex or Larson to beat every car in the field, be my guest. I’d much rather grab the value here where Custer only needs to beat 27 other drivers.

Chase Briscoe (Top 10 +425, 2 units) – This is another stinker of a bet. Last week my strategy was #FadeSHR and it worked for a bit of a profit on those bets. However, the one loser was Chastain > Briscoe. Let’s switch the strategy this week and bet on a few SHR cars. Chase has finished 11th or better in two of the last three races, so maybe he is starting to turn things around some. This will be his first Cup start at Dover, so there is definitely plenty of risk here in a new car. But his Xfinity stats over the last two years at Dover have been tremendous. In four races, he has a win, three Top 5s, and four Top 10s. Definitely a step up in competition this year, but I’ll take my chances at long odds on both the #14 and #41.

Christopher Bell (Top 10 -120, To Beat Blaney +135, 1 unit each) – I’m a bit torn on how to bet on Bell here so I’ll take two different approaches. Bell has not had success in a Cup car at Dover, but remember he was driving the inferior #95 car last year. In the Xfinity series here, he has two wins, including the Fall 2018 race where he led 110 laps, and posted a near-perfect 148.8 driver rating. Another interesting dynamic is his crew chief who came over from Kyle Busch’s car in the offseason. Adam Stevens has finished 11th or better in his last five races here as CC. I don’t love fading Blaney here, but the odds shouldn’t be that high for a near coin-flip matchup. Blaney only has two career Top 10s at Dover and none since 2018.

Chase Elliott (To Win +900, 1 unit, Top 5 +120) – If you look at recent winners here, Chase is the only one with odds higher than 7-1. He has had incidents in two of his last five races at Dover. But the incident-free races have produced finishes of 5th, 5th, and 1st. Not too shabby for someone coming in at 9-1 odds. Hat tip @skyboxNASCAR for this one. Check out his page, he has plenty of good stuff every week! I’m also adding a T5 finish at +120 since he’s been a lock there when his car finishes the race.

Cole Custer (To Win Group E +275, 1 unit) – Disclaimer: This group contains Almirola, Buescher, and Newman at my book. I see this as mostly a head-to-head against Almirola. Buescher has been great at intermediates this year but has really struggled at Dover in his career, with a top finish of 14th in 10 races. Newman is the same story with zero Top 15s in the last three years.

Longshots: 

Briscoe (to Win Stage 1 350-1, Stage 2 300-1) and Custer (to Win Stage 2 300-1, $1 each) – I couldn’t believe these odds when I saw them. 300-1 to win a stage is pure insanity. Yes, these guys have been terrible, but if they are running in the Top 10, there are numerous ways they can win a stage. Crash, pit strategy, Chinese rocket ship takes out half the field, I’m just saying. I’ll toss $3 at some long shots in hopes to catch lightning in a bottle. I would think these two drivers especially would be searching for stage points while most of the front runners just want a good finish. If there is a late caution in either stage, look for these two to stay out and the likes of Truex, Hamlin, Larson pit for a better restart after the stage.