Nashville – Ally 400 Betting Preview

This is a very tough weekend to find value on the betting board. We’re at a track that has never run Cup cars before, and NASCAR hasn’t been here in 10 years. Without recent track data, what do we lean on? The smart answer is tread lightly with bets. The degenerate answer is to look at semi-similar tracks like Dover or Darlington, other 750 HP races, and recent success. Let’s take a look and those three variable and see if we can find some betting value in Nashville!

Note: All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise stated.

Best Bet: Tyler Reddick Top 10 +125 2u – I mentioned this on twitter yesterday after practice, Reddick has finished T10 in seven of the last ten races, he had the fifth fastest lap in practice, and he got 200 miles of “extra practice” in the Xfinity car yesterday. That extra track time should be a huge edge for guys like Byron, Preece (congrats on the Trucks win), Kyle Busch and Reddick.

Other Bets:

Martin Truex Jr. to Win +800 (pre qual) and +1500 (post qual) – Truex had the best car on the track at Darlington this spring. He didn’t have the speed at Dover during the Hendrick 1-2-3-4 sweep. However his last four races at Dover ended up with finishes of 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, and 1st. An average finish of 1.75 isn’t too bad in the Cup series. Truex has already won at Phoenix, Martinsville and Darlington this year in this 750 HP package so I really like him at 8-1 odds. UPDATE: Truex will be starting deep in the field after a poor qualifying run. Although this appears to be a tough track to pass, in the Cup series the races are so long that the best cars ultimately make their way up front. 15-1 odds are WAY too high for Truex.

Kyle Busch to Win +800 – Much like his JGR teammate, Truex, Kyle had a great car at Darlington, but wasn’t great at Dover. Kyle is coming in to Nashville on a hot streak. After a rough start to the season, he has finished Top 3 in three of the last six races, including a win at Kansas. For this bet, I’m leaning heavily into Rowdy’s Xfinity track time. When he wins his lower series races, he seems to do well in the Cup race as well. Those extra laps should really help this weekend.

Kevin Harvick Top 5 +165 – I wanted to find an excuse to bet on Harvick this week with his awesome Gravedigger paint scheme. I was looking at Dover stats and stumbled upon Harvick’s dominance at that track. He has finished 6th or better in the last seven races at the Monster Mile. In those races he has five Top 5s and two wins. Harvick also finished 6th at Darlington and Dover this year. Let’s hope he can get over the hump and get inside the Top 5 in Nashville.

Chris Buescher Top 10 +325 – Buescher continues to be undervalued in the betting market. He’s not top tier driver but he has been producing results in the low teens and has three Top 10s in his last six races. He probably won’t finish T10 today, but these odds imply a 23.5% chance he does. I think he goes T10 more often than that.

I will look for more action when my books release more.