Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Driver Breakdowns

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Martinsville to battle it out to see who’ll compete for the championship at Phoenix. Martinsville is the oldest, shortest and slowest track on the circuit, but the action is off the charts. Martinsville proves NASCAR is a “Contact Sport”, and there’s no question we’ll see a ton of angry and disappointed drivers come Sunday evening.

In terms of the championship aspect at Martinsville which can impact fantasy, Kyle Larson is locked into the finale, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin are looking really safe barring a huge meltdown, and then everyone else is facing an essential must-win situation, with only seven points separating Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski. Joey Logano is at the bottom of the points, so he’s facing an absolutely must-win situation.

In terms of variables I want in a fantasy pick for Martinsville I want ….

1) A driver who’s been strong at Martinsville and has a proven track record. Martinsville is a skill track where the driver is a difference maker.

2) A driver who’s run well at 750 HP tracks in 2021 (All 750 HP Ovals, 750 HP Ovals at tracks that are one mile or shorter)

3) Recent form (Total Speed Rankings Momentum)

4) A driver who’s starting relatively near the front. 11 of the last 12 Martinsville races have been won from a driver starting between 3rd to 10th. Here’s the Martinsville Starting Lineup.

Martinsville Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

1) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 4th)
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – At Martinsville, the road to victory lane goes thru Martin Truex Jr. The track isn’t named after him, but he’s owned it recently. He’s won 3 of the last 4 Martinsville races, but he could potentially be 4 for 4 if his race would’ve been incident free last fall. When its closing time at Martinsville, nobody has been faster then Truex and over the last four races, he’s fielded the fastest car on the track in segment #4. On Sunday, look for Truex to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Martinsville Track History – Martin Truex Jr. is the premiere performer at Martinsville. He raced his way to victory lane this spring, and overall he’s won 3 of the last 4 races. Since fall 2017 minus last fall where he had a misleading result, Truex has a 2.9 average finish, a 5.8 average running position and he’s averaged leading 91.1 laps per race. This spring, Truex had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Truex finished 3rd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had the 2nd best driver rating, led 20 laps and then of course finished 1st when the checkered flag waved. In the closing laps, Truex reeled in Hamlin for the lead, and ultimately the win. In terms of speed analytics, Truex had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking, but in the 4th segment when the trophy was on the line, the #19 car was the fastest car on the track. Last fall, Truex was a contender, but finished a misleading 22nd. In the race, Truex finished 6th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had a 4.2 average running position, led 129 laps and ran 75 fastest laps. Truex’s misleading result can be traced to him having a loose wheel while running in 2nd with 40 laps to go. With 25 to go he came to pit road and that doomed his evening. Just prior to him complaining about his loose wheel, Truex was the leader. In terms of speed analytics, Truex had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the fastest driver in segment #4. In summer 2020 under the lights, Truex raced his way to victory lane, even though his race wasn’t incident free. During the Stage #1 caution after just finishing 4th, Truex got a commitment cone violation. In the race, Truex finished 1st, led 102 laps and ranked as the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In fall 2019, Truex led 464 laps and raced his way to victory lane. In the four races prior to that, Truex had results of 8th, 3rd, 4th and 2nd.
DraftKings $11,400 / FanDuel $14,500

2) Ryan Blaney (Starting – 8th)
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – Ryan Blaney will be a driver to be reckoned with at Martinsville. He’s an elite performer at “The Paper Clip”, and in recent races he’s consistently been knocking on the door to victory lane. Blaney’s 1 point south of the cut-line, so there’s no question he’ll be going all out and will dial up the aggression. On Sunday, look for Blaney to be a factor to win.
Martinsville Track History – Ryan Blaney ranks among the elite at Martinsville and in 5 of the last 7 races he’s finished in the top 5. Over the last five, Blaney has a series best 4.8 average finish, a 5.6 average running position and he’s averaged leading 45.4 laps per race. Over the last three races with the current rules package, there’s no question Blaney ranks among the best, despite getting a pit penalty every race. This spring, Blaney won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 157 laps, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run but finished a misleading 11th. While he was running in 2nd around lap 450, Blaney got a pit penalty when equipment left his pit box. Last fall, Blaney had a great car and overcame a speeding penalty around lap 104 when he was running around 6th. In the race, Blaney finished 4th in Stage #2, 2nd overall, had a 6.8 average running position, led 36 laps and ran 51 fastest laps. Additionally, Blaney had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked between 3rd to 7th over the four segments. In spring 2020, Blaney was way off early, but rebounded in a big way late. In the race he finished around 20th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 34 laps and finished 2nd overall. Him finishing that high is remarkable when you consider around lap 330 while leading he got a pit penalty which sent him back to 18th. In terms of speed analytics, Blaney was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and his speed ranking over the last three segments were 2nd, 3rd and 2nd. In 2019, Blaney swept the top five and had results of 4th and 5th.
DraftKings $9,700 / FanDuel $12,000

3) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 6th)
Martinsville Fantasy Spin – Brad Keselowski is one of the premiere performers at Martinsville, and on Sunday, there’s no question he’ll be a contender to win as he vies for a Phoenix championship berth. Keselowski didn’t have an incident free race this spring, but in the five Martinsville races prior to that he had a series best 3.2 average finish and was the only driver who finished in the top five every race.
Martinsville Track History – Brad Keselowski is a two-time winner at Martinsville who consistently performs at an elite level. Keselowski’s race was far from incident free this spring, but in the ten races prior to that, Keselowski had 9 top fives and a result in the top ten every race. This spring, Keselowski had a tough race and finished 33rd. That said, he didn’t run bad. In the race he finished 8th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2 and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In the race, Keselowski had intermittent power steering issues (first reported on lap 321), then he spun on lap 340, then on lap 385 he was collected in the “Big One” which marked the end of his race. Last fall, the #2 was fast. Keselowski finished 3rd in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2 and 4th overall. What makes his 4th place finish more impressive is that with 99 laps to go during a caution when he was in 4th he was caught speeding on pit road which dropped him back to 24th. In terms of speed analytics, Keselowski had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Last summer, Keselowski didn’t place in the first two Stages, but when the checkered flag waved he finished 3rd. The #2 team missed the setup early, but was strong at the end. His Total Speed Ranking over the last two segments were 1st and 3rd. In the three Martinsville races prior to that, Keselowski had results of 3rd, 1st and 5th.
DraftKings $9,300 / FanDuel $11,000