Kansas Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Michael McDowell
Kansas Fantasy Spin – At Kansas, Michael McDowell currently has four straight finishes in the teens. This year at intermediates, McDowell hasn’t run well and at Las Vegas, the most similar track visited he finished 27th, had a 21.2 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 24th best. I’ll note, the #34 team has been grinding out good results and avoiding trouble lately. In 3 of the last 4 races heading into the weekend he’s finished in the top ten.
Kansas Track History – At Kansas, Michael McDowell currently has four straight results in the teens. Over the last four combined events, McDowell has a 16.0 average finish and a 21.9 average running position. Last fall, McDowell finished 16th and had a 21.7 average running position. In spring 2021, McDowell tied his best Kansas result and finished 13th. That said, McDowell had a 20.5 average running position, the 27th best Total Speed Ranking and was back in 19th with 15 laps to go before late mayhem ensued. In 2020, McDowell had a pair of high-teen finishes. That year his results were 16th and 19th.
Bubba Wallace
Kansas Fantasy Spin – At Kansas, I think Bubba Wallace realistically has mid to high-teens potential, and in 2 of the last 3 races here he’s finished within that range. I’ll note, Wallace did have one of his best non-superspeedway performances in 2022 at Las Vegas, the most similar track visited. At that venue, Wallace was running in 13th with 11 laps to go before he spun and crashed late (25th). His speed ranking over the last three segments of that race were 14th, 13th and 15th. That said, 2022 has been a tough year and outside of superspeedways, Wallace hasn’t cracked the top 15.
Kansas Track History – Bubba Wallace has a poor track history at Kansas, so I wouldn’t encourage you to look at it. That said, in 2 of the last 3 races he’s finished in the teens. Last fall, Wallace had his best Kansas performance and in the race, Wallace finished 9th in Stage #2, had the 12th best Green Flag Speed, the 14th best Total Speed Ranking and then 14th when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note, early in the final Stage around lap 175, Wallace was caught speeding during a caution. In spring 2021, Wallace didn’t have an incident free race and finished 26th. In the race he finished in the low double-digits in Stage #1, in the low-twenties in Stage #2, but then shortly after a restart for the final Stage he got into the wall and got quite a bit of damage. In fall 2020, Wallace finished 18th, had a 19.8 average running position and had the 21st best Total Speed Ranking.
Cole Custer
Kansas Fantasy Spin – Cole Custer has had some respectable runs at Kansas so he has some upside, but on Sunday, I would view him as a high-teens to low-twenties driver. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Custer finished 11th at Auto Club and at Las Vegas shortly before his engine went south which marked his demise, he was running in 24th.
Kansas Track History – At Kansas, Cole Custer had a sophomore slump last year because he was a lot more competitive during his rookie year. Last fall, Custer finished 18th, had a 16.2 average running position and had the 18th best Green Flag Speed. In spring 2021, Custer had his worst Kansas performance and that afternoon he finished 24th, had a 23.8 average running position and had the 29th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020 during his rookie season, Custer had a 10.5 average finish between the combined events. In fall 2020, Custer finished 14th, had a 15.5 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 18th best. In summer 2020, the attrition rate was high and Custer snuck in a 7th place finish. In that event he had a 16th place average running position and had the 16th best Total Speed Ranking.
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