Kansas Fantasy Spin – At Kansas, look for Kyle Busch to be a factor. Busch is the defending spring Kansas winner, and he also likely would’ve won at Las Vegas this spring, the most similar track visited if there wasn’t a late caution. At Las Vegas, Busch led 49 laps and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking in both the 3rd and 4th segments. On Sunday, look for Busch to be a top five contender who’ll be in the mix to win.
Kansas Track History – Kyle Busch has thrived at Kansas. He’s the defending spring winner and over the last fourteen races he has 2 wins, 9 top fives and only two results south of 11th. Since fall 2019 minus last fall, Busch’s average finish is 5.0. Last fall, its hard to say how good Kyle Busch was because he pounded the wall early, and then he really pounded it again late. On lap 23, Busch had a flat tire and got into it the first time (Was in 7th two laps earlier). On lap 133 he hit it again and when the race reached its conclusion he finished 28th. In spring 2021, Busch had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Busch started 9th, won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 20 laps, had the best driver rating, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. When Busch had to, he legitimately outraced Kyle Larson. In fall 2020, Busch was solid. In the race he finished 10th in Stage #1, 5th overall, had an 11.7 average running position and had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking. Over the last segment of the race, Busch was clearly at his best. In summer 2020, Busch had a great car. He won Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, led 52 laps, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking but finished a misleading 11th. With 40 laps to go while he was running in the top five he slammed into the wall hard which led to an unexpected pit stop.
Kansas Fantasy Spin – At Kansas, there’s a great chance Ross Chastain will be a factor. The #42 team shows up with speed every week, and at Las Vegas, the most similar track visited he finished 3rd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a race best 3.8 average running position, led 83 laps, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, the 2nd best green flag speed and finished 3rd. On Sunday, I think Chastain’s definitely a top five threat.
Kansas Track History – Last year at Kansas in the #42, Ross Chastain had a solid season. Last October, Chastain finished 8th in Stage #1, 10th in Stage #2, had the 13th best Green Flag Speed and then finished 13th when the checkered flag waved. His result is a little more impressive when you take into account during the start of the final Stage, he got a restart violation which led to a drive thru penalty. There was a caution the next lap, so it didn’t hurt him too much. In spring 2021, Chastain finished 14th, had a 16.4 average running position and had the 16th best Total Speed Ranking. I wouldn’t bother looking back into any of his other results since he wasn’t in a competitive situation.
Kansas Fantasy Spin – At Kansas, there’s no question Kyle Larson will be the favorite heading into the weekend. Larson was the best driver in both races last year, and this year at high-speed intermediate tracks, nobody has been better than him in the results column. At Auto Club he raced his way to victory lane, and then at Las Vegas, the most similar track visited he finished 2nd. Larson wasn’t quite as good as his results in either race, but that’s where he finished when the checkered flag waved. Las Vegas is by far the more similar of the two and at that venue, Larson had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and a 7.3 average running position.
Kansas Track History – Last year at Kansas, Kyle Larson clobbered the competition, and he could’ve easily pulled out the broom for the season. Last fall, Larson was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 130 laps, had a 2.3 average running position, the best Total Speed Ranking and the 2nd best Green Flag Speed. In spring 2021, Larson was stellar, but victory lane eluded him thanks to late cautions. In the race, Larson started deep in the field in 32nd, but cracked the top ten on lap 12! When Stage #1 ended, Larson finished 2nd. In Stage #2 he finished 1st. Late in the race, Larson looked to have the race in hand, but late cautions cost him what looked like a certain victory. During the final restart with 2 laps to go, Larson was pushing Blaney and got into the wall, which then tumbled him back in the running order to his 19th place finish. In the race, Larson led 132 laps (49.4% of the race), had a 3.2 average running position, was tied for having the best driver rating and had the best Total Speed Ranking. In terms of speed by segment, Larson ranked 4th, 1st, 1st and then 1st. In 2020, Larson missed both races. In his four starts prior to that he had a 7.3 average finish.