Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Martin Truex Jr.
Richmond Fantasy Spin – At Richmond, the road to victory lane will likely go thru Martin Truex Jr. Truex has three wins at “The Action Track”, and subjectively I think he should’ve netted his 4th win this spring but was beat out on strategy. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Truex has been strong and over the last three races, I would argue the #19 has been the class of the field. Over the last three shorter-flat track races, Truex has a 4.7 average finish, a 5.7 average running position and he’s averaged leading 98 laps per race. At New Hampshire, the most recent shorter-flat track visited, Truex led 172 laps and finished 4th. For the season over the combined races at shorter-flat tracks, Truex has the best Total Speed Ranking and ranks 2nd for Speed Late In A Run.
Richmond Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has been a super-elite performer at Richmond. Over the last seven races, Truex has 3 wins, a 2.4 average finish, a 4.3 average running position, the best driver rating by a wide margin and he’s averaged leading 103.6 laps per race. This spring at “The Action Track”, I think Truex had the best car, but victory lane eluded him because of pit strategy from others. In the race, Truex finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 80 laps, had a race best 3.9 average running position, had the best driver rating and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Truex had a great car and raced his way to victory lane despite essentially starting in the back since he got black flagged right at the start for beating the leader to the green flag. Despite his setback, Truex finished 8th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led 80 laps, was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Truex had a great car, but came home an asterisk mark 5th. In the race, Truex finished 2nd in Stage #1 & 2, led 107 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. On lap 297 during green flag pit stops while he was running in 3rd, Truex was caught speeding on pit road. In the four races prior to that, Truex had results of 2nd, 1st, 1st and 3rd.
Denny Hamlin
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Richmond who should prominently be on your fantasy NASCAR radar. Richmond belongs in the conversation of being his very best track, and this spring he raced his way to victory lane and netted his 4th win at “The Action Track.” Over the last three races at Richmond, Hamlin has results of 1st, 2nd and 2nd, and it’s hard to do better than that. In his career at Richmond, Hamlin has finished in the top five 52% of the time and in the top ten 65% of the time. One attribute you have to like about Hamlin is that the #11 team is getting hot. Since New Hampshire minus Indy and you credit him with his Pocono win, Hamlin has a 3.3 average finish and the best driver rating by a healthy margin. When you go back even further, back to Kansas in the spring and minus road courses and the two races where Chastain crashed him while running well (Gateway and Atlanta), then Hamlin has finished in the top 6 every race and has a 3.5 average finish. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Richmond Track History – Richmond is Denny Hamlin’s home track and he’s performed like he has a homefield advantage. He’s a four-time winner and in 11 of the last 13 races he’s finished in the top 6. Over the three Richmond races since 2021, Hamlin has a 1.7 average finish, a 3.9 average running position, the best driver rating and he’s averaged leading 136.3 laps per race. This spring, Hamlin had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. I’ll note, it was very much so a “fresh tire at the end pit strategy victory”, and I don’t think he had the strongest car by any means. In the race, Hamlin only led 5 laps, had an 8.2 average running position and because of his pit strategy, his speed analytics are completely skewed (14th best Total Speed Ranking, 21st fastest driver late in a run). Last year at Richmond, nobody was better than Hamlin. He didn’t reach victory lane, but he went 2 for 2 at finishing 2nd. Last fall, Hamlin won the opening two Stages, led 197 laps, had a 1.8 average running position and finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. In spring 2021, Hamlin had a phenomenal car, but wasn’t clutch when it counted and during the final restart, Bowman passed him for the lead and ultimately the win. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 207 laps, ran 89 Fastest Laps, had the best PROS Ranking, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run.
Christopher Bell
Richmond Fantasy Spin – At Richmond, look for New Hampshire winner, Christopher Bell to be a contender. Bell has been stout at Richmond, and there’s no question he’s now one of the elite shorter-flat track performers in NASCAR. On this track type since 2021 minus Phoenix this spring, Bell has a 5.4 average finish and he’s 8 for 8 at finishing in the top ten. In 2022 minus this springs Phoenix race, Bell’s track type average finish is 5.3. This year at shorter-flat tracks in terms of speed analytics, Bell ranks 4th for long run speed and 10th for Total Speed Rankings.
Richmond Track History – At Richmond, Christopher Bell is starting to enter elite territory and over the last three races, Bell has a 4.3 average finish, a 6.9 average running position and he’s 3 for 3 at finishing between 3rd to 6th. This spring, Bell had a great performance. In the race, Bell finished 7th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, led 63 laps, had a 5.5 average running position, and then finished 6th when the checkered flag waved. Last fall, Bell had a great performance. In the race he started 10th, finished 6th in Stage #2, finished 3rd overall and had a 7.7 average running position. In the race, Bell ranked as the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and over the final two segments, Bell fielded the 2nd fastest car on the track. In spring 2021, Bell finished 6th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, finished 4th overall, had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run.
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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier