Watkins Glen Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Watkins Glen for the “Go Bowling At The Glen!” Watkins Glen is NASCAR’s oldest road course (visited since 1957), and I would argue the best. It’s a track where drivers really get up on the wheel and race aggressively. Some have described Watkins Glen as the “Intermediate Track Of Road Courses.” At road courses, pit strategy always comes into play and the Stages for Watkins Glen are set for 20-20-42 laps. The fuel window is 35-37 laps.
On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held. Teams only had 20 minutes, and always keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our Watkins Glen Practice Notes, Watkins Glen Practice Speeds and Watkins Glen Practice 5 and 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s Watkins Glen Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Watkins Glen Full Field Rankings!
1) Chase Elliott
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 3rd
2022 Road Course Speed Rankings| Total Speed Ranking – 1st / Speed Late In A Run – 4th
Watkins Glen Breakdown – At Watkins Glen, I think Chase Elliott, the road course king has a great chance to take back his crown from the pole. Elliott’s been the premiere performer at Watkins Glen and if 2021 would’ve been incident free, Elliott would likely have 3-straight wins. At Watkins Glen over the last three races, Elliott has a 1.3 average finish, 2 wins, the best driver rating by a wide margin and he’s averaged leading 44 laps per race. Last year, Elliott had a great car and finished runner-up, despite starting in the rear of the field and making an unexpected pit stop. If Elliott didn’t have those problems, I think he probably would’ve won. Over the final quarter of the race, the #9 was the fastest car on the track. In 2019 in the next most recent race, Elliott started on the pole, finished 1st, had a 1.3 average running position, led 80 laps and nearly earned a perfect driver rating. In terms of speed analytics, Elliott had the best Total Speed Ranking and his speed over the segments were 1st, 1st, 1st and then 2nd. In 2018, Elliott raced his way to victory lane earning the first win of his career. In addition to finishing first, Elliott earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led a race high 52 laps. This year at road courses, Elliott hasn’t reached victory lane, but he’s been stout and minus Indy RC where he had problems late while running in the top five his average finish is 4.6. In terms of speed stats over the combined events, Elliott ranks #1 for Total Speed Rankings and 4th for Speed Late In A Run. In practice, the #9 was fast and had the 3rd best 5 lap average.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +500
2) Tyler Reddick
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 5th | 10 Lap Average – 2nd
2022 Road Course Speed Rankings| Total Speed Ranking – 4th / Speed Late In A Run – 1st
Watkins Glen Breakdown – Tyler Reddick will definitely be a driver to be reckoned with at Watkins Glen. Reddick has back-to-back road course wins and on Sunday, I think he has a great chance to notch his third. This year at road courses, Reddick has been super-elite and minus Sonoma which wasn’t incident free for him, Reddick’s average finish is 2.3. Also for the season over the combined events, Reddick ranks #1 for Speed Late In A Run and 4th for Total Speed Rankings. On this track type since Road America 2021 minus this year’s Sonoma race and last year’s Indy RC, Reddick has a 4.5 average finish. Last year at Watkins Glen in his only Cup start, Reddick finished 10th, had a 13.2 average running position, was the 10th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. In practice, Reddick had the 5th best 5 lap average and the 2nd best 10 lap average.
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +600
Further Recommended Reading: Watkins Glen Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Watkins Glen Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Watkins Glen Playability Value Chart
3) Kyle Larson
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 2-7 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 1st | 10 Lap Average – 1st
2022 Road Course Speed Rankings| Total Speed Ranking – 12th / Speed Late In A Run – 6th
Watkins Glen Breakdown – Kyle Larson is the defending champion at Watkins Glen and on Sunday, I think he’s primed to have a strong showing. Watkins Glen has been a great track for Larson and there’s no question he belongs among the elite ranks. Over the last three Watkins Glen races, Larson has the 3rd best average finish (5.0), the 3rd best driver rating, the 4th best average running position and he’s one of just 4 drivers who are 3 for 3 at finishing in the top ten. Last year at Watkins Glen, Kyle Larson was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 27 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In his next two most recent races, Larson had results of 8th and 6th. This year at road courses, Larson has shown potential, but he’s had major problems in 3 of the 4 races. At Road America he finished 3rd and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and at Sonoma, I think he was likely the driver to beat until pit strategy/losing a tire did him in. In terms of track type speed analytics, Larson ranks 6th for speed late in a run and 12th for Total Speed Rankings. In practice, Larson ranked #1 for 5 and 10 lap average.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +900
