Bristol Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Erik Jones
Bristol Fantasy Spin – Don’t overlook Erik Jones at Bristol. “Thunder Valley” has been a great track for Jones throughout his career and the theory of him having a boosted level of performance for “Being Good Every Other Week” is back in effect. At Bristol in 5 of his 9 starts, Erik Jones has come home with a result in the top 8. On Saturday night, look for Erik Jones to be a top ten contender.
Bristol Track History – Erik Jones has performed at a high-level at Bristol, and he even ran well last year when the #43 team wasn’t running nearly as well. Over the last three races here, his 5.3 average finish ranks as the 2nd best and he’s the only driver who’s 3 for 3 at finishing in the top ten. Last summer, Jones started mid-pack in 22nd, but that wasn’t a problem and he finished 8th when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Jones had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking, a 13.7 average running position and ranked 13th for speed late in a run. In 2020, Jones swept the top five. In fall 2020, Jones finished 9th in Stage #2, finished 3rd overall and had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2020, Jones had a strong showing. He finished 5th, ranked as the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had an 11.1 average running position. In 2019, Jones ran well in both races, but had a pair of asterisk mark results. In summer 2019, Jones was a top five contender, but finished a misleading 22nd. In the race he finished 7th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2, led 23 laps but on lap 397 while running in 2nd after just getting passed for the lead, he got into the wall hard which led to an unexpected pit stop. In spring 2019, Jones showed potential, but finished a misleading 24th. Right after he led 10 laps he made an unexpected pit stop on lap 58 which dropped him a few laps down which led to his disappointing result.

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Martin Truex Jr.
Bristol Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is an extremely capable performer at “Thunder Valley”, but it’s one of those tracks that has his number in terms of the results column. Over the last 16 Bristol races, Truex has only finished in the top ten twice, and in 12 of them he’s finished 17th or worse. On Saturday night, I’m going to approach Truex with extreme caution and view him as a risky top ten contender.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol since 2018, Martin Truex Jr. has a 20.1 average finish and in 5 of the 7 races he’s finished 17th or worse. Last fall, Truex had his best Bristol race in a decade and finished 7th. Additionally, Truex finished 9th in Stage #1, had a 10th place average running position, the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 4th for speed late in a run. In summer 2020, Truex started 3rd, didn’t place in any Stage, finished 24th, had a 20.5 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 18th best. In the race, Truex progressively fell back in the running order and then in the second Stage while he was in 20th on lap 213 he had a vibration and made an unexpected pit stop which dropped him 3 laps down.  In spring 2020, Truex was fast, but he finished 20th. In the race he had an 11.9 average running position, ranked as the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run but his race wasn’t incident free. With 38 laps to go he was running in 5th, but then with 34 laps to go he was caught up in a multi-car wreck which led to his misleading result. In summer 2019, Truex showed a lot of speed, but he didn’t close out strong and went on to finish 13th. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 10th in Stage #2, led 52 laps and he was in 6th on lap 353. Then late cautions cycled him back to the teens and he was never able to drive his way up to the front again. From the race I’ll note he earned the 6th best driver rating, had a 7th place average running position and his Green Flag Average Speed ranked as the 7th best. In spring 2019, Truex Jr. was very competitive, but finished a misleading 17th. Right before Stage #2 ending while he was running in 2nd he made an unexpected pit stop which dropped him a few laps down. Prior to that he ran exceptionally well and looked like a top five contender. In summer 2018, Truex had a great car but wrecked while running in 2nd (finished 30th).

Daniel Suarez
Bristol Fantasy Spin – Don’t overlook Daniel Suarez at “Thunder Valley.” Bristol has been a solid venue for him and minus 2021 which wasn’t incident free for him, and 2020 when he drove the junk #96, Suarez’s average finish is 13th and he’s had a result in the top 18 every race. On Saturday night, I think he’s a teens driver who has upside.
Bristol Track History – Daniel Suarez has had some good runs at Bristol, just not over the last three races. Over his first six starts, Suarez had a 13.0 average finish. Last year, Suarez didn’t run all that great and he was involved in a multi-car accident around lap 168 which contributed to his 22nd. I’ll note, Suarez was likely about 20’s good anyways, and the damage certainly wasn’t fatal. In the race, Suarez had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking and over the four segments he ranked between 25th to 27th in terms of speed. His average running position was 25.6. In 2020 in the #96, Daniel Suarez dodged all the attrition and came home with results of 26th and 18th. In 2019 when he piloted the #41, Suarez had a pair of 8th place finishes for the season. In his four races prior to that in JGR equipment, Suarez had finishes of 18th, 11th, 15th and 18th.

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