Bristol Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Aric Almirola
Bristol Fantasy Spin –At Bristol, I would describe Aric Almirola as sneaky good. He’s an extremely capable performer here, but all too often, trouble finds him and leads to a poor finish. Over the last seven Bristol races, Almirola only has one incident free race. On Sunday, I think he’s a high -risk/ high -reward driver who isn’t for the faint of heart.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol, Aric Almirola has a little upside, but things have mostly been bad for him here and in 6 of the last 7 races he’s finished 18th or worse. Last year, Almirola finished 18th, had a 13.9 average running position and had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Almirola’s race wasn’t incident free, and he was black flagged around lap 176 for when his car was smoking (loose oil-line). I’ll note, he was running in 11th on lap 396, but he’s a driver who faded down the stretch. In fall 2020, Almirola finished 7th in Stage #2, 5th overall, had a 9.7 average running position and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2020, Almirola had a fast car, but finished 29th. In the race he finished 4th in Stage #1, had a 7.7 average running position and was running in 7th with 38 laps to go. Then with 34 laps to go, Almirola was swept up in a multi-car accident that doomed him to his poor result. In summer 2019, Almirola finished a misleading 29th. In the race he finished 10th in Stage #1 (lap 125), but on lap 189 while he was running around 15th he crashed. He kept on going, but on lap 214 he spun again and that essentially ended his competitive evening leading to his poor result. In spring 2019, Almirola only completed 3 laps before his day was over. On lap 2 he got into the wall and got suspension damage.

Michael McDowell
Bristol Fantasy Spin – At Bristol, Michael McDowell has finished in the top 14 in 2 of the last 3 races, but I can’t say I like his fantasy value. I think he could slip into another good result, but I think he’s more likely to finish around 20th. On Saturday night, I’m going to view him as a high-teens to low-twenties performer who might sneak in a good result.
Bristol Track History – Bristol has been a tough track for Michael McDowell, but he had a great 2020 here so there’s hope. That said, outside of 2020 things have been pretty brutal and he’s finished 20th or worse every race. Last year, McDowell finished 24th, had a 22nd place average running position and had the 25th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020, McDowell finished 10th in the fall and 14th in the spring. That 10th was his first career top ten at “Thunder Valley”, but take note he finished two laps down, had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking and a 20.3 average running position. In spring 2020, McDowell finished 14th, had a 20.2 average running position and had the 25th best Total Speed Ranking. In summer 2019, McDowell didn’t run well and wrecked on lap 373 in a multi-car accident that led to his 37th place finish. Shortly before his problem he was running a few laps down in 28th. In spring 2019, McDowell didn’t run well and finished 7 laps down in 28th. 2018 was a brutal season for McDowell at “Thunder Valley” and he completed just 19 laps between the combined events (Finished 37th and 38th).

Ty Dillon
Bristol Fantasy Spin – At Bristol, Ty Dillon likely has high-teens to low-twenties potential. In 4 of his last 5 races at “Thunder Valley”, Dillon’s finished between 15th to 21st. Over that stretch minus race #1 2020 where he crashed, Dillon has an 18.5 average finish. Dillon has also been running better recently, so I’m somewhat optimistic about his potential and hopeful he’ll keep the good times going.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol as you just read above, Dillon hasn’t been a disaster at “Thunder Valley” and he’s actually been quite a respectable border-line low-tier performer. In 2021, Dillon didn’t race at Bristol. In 2020, Dillon finished 18th in the fall and then in the spring he crashed and finished 39th. In his three Bristol starts prior to that, Dillon had results of 20th, 15th and 21st.

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