Bristol Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Saturday night, NASCAR will be racing at Bristol! This isn’t Kansas anymore! Bristol is “The World’s Fastest Half-Mile” and it’s been described as flying a jet fighter in a gymnasium. This week’s race at Bristol also marks the end of round #1 of the Playoffs, and four drivers will get eliminated! There will be a sense of desperation in the air for some, and desperate drivers do desperate things. Only Christopher Bell is currently locked into the next round.

On Friday, practice was held for Bristol. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Bristol Practice Notes, Bristol Practice Speeds and Bristol 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s the Bristol Starting Lineup/ Qualifying results.

Bristol Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Denny Hamlin
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 1st /10 Lap Average – 1st
Bristol Breakdown – At “Thunder Valley”, I think there’s a great chance the road to victory lane will go thru Denny Hamlin. Hamlin’s a two-time Bristol winner and in recent races, Hamlin’s arguably been the best. “Performance Wise”, Hamlin’s been a serious factor to win 3 of the last 5 Bristol races. Last fall, Hamlin was one of the best, but he finished an asterisk mark 22nd. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 65 laps but then in the final Stage on lap 399 while running in 2nd, Hamlin had a flat tire. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 2nd for both Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. In 2020, Hamlin performed at a high-level in both races, but had a pair of asterisk mark results. In summer 2020, Hamlin started in the rear of the field, finished just outside the top ten in Stage #1, was in 5th on lap 204, but then on lap 216 he was shown to have a ton of damage to his nose after he ran into the back of Martin Truex Jr which led to his asterisk mark 21st. In spring 2020, Hamlin arguably had the best car, but he finished an asterisk mark 17th after having problems late while leading with 12 laps to go (got into the marbles, ran into the back of Logano who just passed him who also got into the marbles and then spun and was hit by BJ McLeod). Just prior to his problem, Hamlin paced the field for the previous 53 laps. In the race, Hamlin finished 8th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2 and led a race high 131 laps. Despite his problem, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had a 5.2 average running position. In summer 2019, Hamlin smashed “Cinderella’s slipper” and denied Matt DiBenedetto the win with a late pass. In addition to finishing first, Hamlin led 79 laps, earned the 4th best driver rating and had the 6th best Green Flag Speed. One intangible you have to love about Hamlin heading into the weekend is his momentum. Hamlin has back-to-back 2nd’s in the Playoffs and when you go all the way back to Kansas in the spring minus the road courses, Daytona, races Ross Chastain wrecked him (Gateway and Atlanta) and you credit him with his Pocono win, Hamlin has a 3.2 average finish.
DraftKings $11,500 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +550

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2) Kyle Larson
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 4th /10 Lap Average – 3rd / 15 Lap Average – 1st / 20 Lap Average – 1st / 25 Lap Average – 1st
Bristol Breakdown – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Bristol who should prominently be on your fantasy NASCAR radar. Larson’s the defending Bristol Night Race winner and he’s consistently performed at an extremely high-level. Since 2017 minus spring 2019 where he had multiple problems, Larson has a 4.0 average finish, a 4.3 average running position and he’s averaged leading 104.8 laps per race. Last fall, Larson had a stellar showing and raced his way to victory lane after a late assist from Chase Elliott (held up Harvick). In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 2.5 average running position, led a race high 175 laps, earned the best driver rating, had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In summer 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson won Stage #1, finished 6th overall and led 62 laps. In spring 2019, Larson was easily a top ten contender, but he had multiple problems and finished an asterisk mark 19th. In the four Bristol races prior to that, Larson had results of 2nd, 2nd, 9th and 6th.
DraftKings $10,800 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +700

Bristol Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Bristol Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Bristol Playability Value Chart

3) Kevin Harvick
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 14th /10 Lap Average – 9th / 15 Lap Average – 2nd / 20 Lap Average – 2nd / 25 Lap Average – 2nd
Bristol Breakdown – At Bristol, Kevin Harvick needs to come up big and be clutch, or people can wish him a “Merry Offseason and a Happy Christmas” (Chase Elliott shirt joke). On Saturday night, I fully expect Harvick to rise to the occasion and be a factor. Harvick’s been good enough to win the last two races here, and over the last 12 races minus summer 2019 where he had transmission problems, Harvick has a 5.9 average finish. Last fall, I think Kevin Harvick likely would’ve won, but an angry Chase Elliott held him up at the end which allowed Kyle Larson to catch him. With 27 laps to go, Harvick had a 1 second lead. In the race, Harvick finished 6th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, led 71 laps and had the 2nd best driver rating. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Harvick ranked 3rd. In summer 2020, Harvick put on a display of domination and notched his third career Bristol win. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, led 226 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2020, Harvick was a top five contender, but walked away with an asterisk mark 11th. In the race, Harvick finished 6th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 and was running in 5th with 66 laps to go until he had contact with Erik Jones.
DraftKings $8,500 / FanDuel $12,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +850