Texas Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Texas Fantasy Spin – On a week-to-week basis, Justin Haley has firmly established himself as a high-teens to low-twenties performer and at Texas, I fully expect him to finish within that range again. In 2022 at high-speed intermediate tracks over his three incident free races, Haley’s 4 for 4 at finishing between 17th to 23rd. Kansas is the most recent similar track visited and in that race, Haley finished 19th and had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking.
Texas Track History – At Texas, I would approach Justin Haley as a driver without a track record and just focus on how he’s performed at similar tracks in 2022. Last year in the #77, Haley completed 30 laps but was then caught up in the lap 30 “Big One” restart which led to his 37th. On lap 29 just prior to his early demise, Haley was running in 31st.
Texas Fantasy Spin – At Texas, look for Ty Dillon to likely finish around 20th. He’s frequently finished around 20th, and in 2022 in 3 of the 4 races held at highs-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Dillon’s finished 20th! It seems to be a real sign. The one outlier was Charlotte (14th), and the attrition rate was thru the roof there. Over the four combined races held at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks in 2022, Dillon has an 18.3 average finish, a 22.4 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking is the 29th best.
Texas Track History – Ty Dillon has been consistent at Texas and in 7 of his 9 starts he’s finished between 17th to 24th. In 2020 when Dillon last raced in the “Lone Star State”, he finished 24th in the fall and then crashed in the summer (34th). In the three races prior to that, Dillon had results of 18th, 21st and 22nd. In Dillon’s career minus his summer 2020 crash his Texas average finish is 19.9.
Texas Fantasy Spin – At Texas, I think Cole Custer is likely about a low to mid-twenties driver. In 2022 over the last three races held at high-speed 1.5’s, Custer’s results are 21st (Charlotte), 22nd (Kansas #1) and 22nd (Kansas #2). I think that trend makes it pretty clear what we should expect. Also over those three races, Custer has a 21.7 average finish, a 22.0 average running position and has the 24th best Driver Rating.
Texas Track History – At Texas, Cole Custer has back-to-back teen finishes and over the last two, his average finish is 16.5. Last fall, Custer finished 19th and had a 21.6 average running position. In 2020, Custer was a teens performer in both races. In fall 2020, Custer had a solid showing and finished 14th. Additionally, Custer had a 15.7 average running position and had the 16th best Total Speed Ranking. In summer 2020, Custer had a track debut he would like to forget and finished an asterisk mark 39th. On lap 218 he was collected in a “Big One” shortly after a restart. Up to that point prior to his demise, I think he clearly looked like a mid to high-teens driver. Under yellow at the start of the final Stage, which was shortly before he crashed, Custer was running in 18th.