Texas Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Texas Fantasy Spin – At Texas, Denny Hamlin should be on your short list of favorites. Hamlin’s a 3-time winner and in recent races in the “Lone Star State”, he’s consistently been a factor. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Hamlin ranks among the best and over the combined events, his Total Speed Ranking ranks as the 2nd best. At Kansas, which was recently visited, Hamlin finished runner-up. At the other 1.5’s visited this year, Hamlin won at Charlotte, finished 4th at Kansas #1 and at Las Vegas he was one of the best (best Total Speed Ranking) but drive train problems ruined his afternoon. Over the last four overall races held on this track type, Hamlin has a 2.5 average finish, the best driver rating and he’s the only driver who’s 4 for 4 at finishing in the top five. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Texas Track History – Denny Hamlin’s a recent Texas winner, but he’s lacked consistency. Over the last 10 Texas races, Hamlin has five top 11’s but in the other five he’s finished 20th or worse. When it comes to “Performance” though, Hamlin hasn’t been lacking. Last fall, Hamlin finished 11th, but that’s a misleading result. In the race, Hamlin had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking, a 7.5 average running position and was running in 5th with 21 to go, but then things went downhill. Shortly after that with 19 to go he spun which brought out the caution. Then to make matters worse, Hamlin was involved in a multi-car wreck with 7 to go. In fall 2020, Hamlin was solid and finished 9th. In spring 2020, Hamlin had a great car and looked like a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 20th after his race fell apart over the closing 50 laps. In the race, Hamlin was in 2nd with 49 laps to go, but shortly after that he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle which put him back in the teens. That’s when the trouble started. With 15 laps to go while he was just outside the top ten he spun. Then with 7 laps to go he spun again. In the race, Hamlin finished 3rd in Stage #2, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2019, Hamlin showed speed, but finished an asterisk mark 28th. On lap 80 while he was running in 6th he spun into the grass and destroyed his front splitter which ruined his afternoon. In spring 2019, Hamlin had a great car. He finished 1st, earned the 2nd best driver rating, won Stage #2 and led 45 laps. His win is a little more impressive when you take into account just after winning Stage #2 he got a pit penalty.

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Christopher Bell
Bristol Fantasy Spin – At Texas, Christopher Bell will be tough to beat. Texas has been a great track for Bell, he’s the hottest driver in the Playoffs, and at similar tracks, Bell’s been one of the premiere performers. This year at similar tracks, Bell has been impressive and over the four combined events at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Bell has the 2nd best average finish (5.8), the 2nd best driver rating and his Total Speed Ranking is tied for being the 4th best. At Kansas, the most recent 1.5-mile track visited, Bell finished 3rd and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. One attribute you have to like about Bell heading into the weekend is his momentum and so far in the Playoffs, Bell has a series best 4.0 average finish and he’s the only driver who’s 3 for 3 at finishing in the top five.
Bristol Track History – Christopher Bell has run well in the “Lone Star State” and has back-to-back 3rd’s. Last fall, it’s hard to say Bell was 3rd place good. In the race he had an 11.7 average running position, the 11th best green flag speed and had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, he did rank 6th for speed late in a run. Late mayhem certainly was a boost and with 26 laps to go before a couple late cautions broke out he was running in 13th. In fall 2020, Bell looked great. In the race he finished 6th in Stage #2, 3rd overall and in the final segment, Bell fielded the fastest car on the track. In spring 2020, Bell didn’t run remotely well. In his track debut he finished 21st and had a 22.5 average running position.

Kyle Larson
Texas Fantasy Spin – At Texas, look for Kyle Larson to be a factor. Larson easily raced his way to victory lane last fall, and this year at similar tracks he’s been one of the best. In 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson has a series best 5.3 average finish, he’s tied for the 2nd best average running position (8.7), his driver rating is the 3rd best and his Total Speed Ranking is the 9th best. In the results department, Larson’s finishes are 2nd (Las Vegas), 2nd (Kansas #1), 9th (Charlotte, was the leader until a late caution came out) and then 8th (Kansas #2). This spring at Texas for the All-Star Race, Larson looked to have one of the best cars but had a sudden flat tire while running in 2nd. In practice for the All-Star Race, Larson had the best 10-lap average. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender.
Texas Track History – Kyle Larson, the defending Texas winner is one of the best in the “Lone Star State.” In 2021, Larson pulled out the broom having won the Playoff race, and the All-Star Race. Last fall, Larson had the field covered and put on a display of domination. In the race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #1 (others beat him on pit strategy), won Stage #2, had a 2.1 average running position, led 256 laps and earned a rare perfect driver rating. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 1st and fielded the fastest car over all four segments of the race. In other speed stats, Larson also ranked #1 for Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In fall 2019 when Larson next most recently raced here, he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run but then finished an asterisk mark 12th. If you can recall back to that race, Bubba Wallace spun on purpose on lap 242 during a pit cycle and it burned Larson. Prior to that, Larson was in 6th, and it dropped him off the lead lap back to the teens.

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